Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 31 October.  The changes should be announced on 29 November and implemented on 13 December.</li>
<li>We forecast 12 adds and 6 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.5% and a one-way trade of CNY 642m (US$90m).</li>
<li>The forecast adds to the index have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months with a move higher in the short-term too.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 31 October.  The changes should be announced on 29 November and implemented on 13 December.
We forecast 12 adds and 6 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.5% and a one-way trade of CNY 642m (US$90m).
The forecast adds to the index have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months with a move higher in the short-term too.


CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes as Adds Outperform

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Willsemi reported 3Q24 results, and we attended its earnings call.</li><li>The company achieved a record quarterly revenue of RMB6.8bn (up 9.5% YoY/5.7% QoQ), 2%/4% lower than our estimate/consensus.</li><li>Mgmt. attributed the growth to consumer demand recovery, increasing product penetration in high-end smartphone market and autonomous driving applications. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Willsemi reported 3Q24 results, and we attended its earnings call.The company achieved a record quarterly revenue of RMB6.8bn (up 9.5% YoY/5.7% QoQ), 2%/4% lower than our estimate/consensus.Mgmt. attributed the growth to consumer demand recovery, increasing product penetration in high-end smartphone market and autonomous driving applications. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Willsemi (603501 CH) - 3Q Results in Line with Gradual Recovery

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 3Q2024 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the inflows in 3Q were US$7,684 million and holdings were USD340bn.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Midea, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Catl, Yangtze Power.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 3Q2024 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the inflows in 3Q were US$7,684 million and holdings were USD340bn.
We highlight flows for Midea, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Catl, Yangtze Power.


Northbound Flows (3Q2024): Wait and See Mode

<ul><li>Willsemi released 1H24 results. Revenue increased by 36.5% YoY to RMB12bn, while net profit grew 790% YoY from a low base in 1H23 (RMB153mn) to RMB1.37bn in 1H24.</li><li>On a quarterly basis, the company achieved a record revenue at RMB6.4bn in 2Q24 (42.5% YoY/14.2% QoQ, in line with consensus estimate).</li><li>Q2 net profit was RMB809mn, up 45.1% QoQ (2Q23 was in net loss). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Willsemi released 1H24 results. Revenue increased by 36.5% YoY to RMB12bn, while net profit grew 790% YoY from a low base in 1H23 (RMB153mn) to RMB1.37bn in 1H24.On a quarterly basis, the company achieved a record revenue at RMB6.4bn in 2Q24 (42.5% YoY/14.2% QoQ, in line with consensus estimate).Q2 net profit was RMB809mn, up 45.1% QoQ (2Q23 was in net loss). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Willsemi (603501 CH) - Solid 1H24 Results with Continued Recovery in CIS Business

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 16th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$600.9 million, led by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and offset by financials, communication services, health care.</li>
<li>Outflows were driven by Material, Industries and Consumer Discretionary sectors. We highlight flows for CATL (300750 CH).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 16th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$600.9 million, led by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and offset by financials, communication services, health care.
Outflows were driven by Material, Industries and Consumer Discretionary sectors. We highlight flows for CATL (300750 CH).


China

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group, Inc. manufactures image sensor and semiconductor products. The Company produces and sells complementary metal oxide semiconductors, protecting devices, power devices, power management integrated circuits, radio frequency devices, microphone sensors, and more. OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group markets its products worldwide.

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group (603501 CH)

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OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group (603501 CH)

Willsemi (603501 CH) - 3Q Results in Line with Gradual Recovery

The company achieved a record quarterly revenue of RMB6.8bn (up 9.5% YoY/5.7% QoQ), 2%/4% lower than our estimate/consensus.

CMB International

Northbound Flows (3Q2024): Wait and See Mode

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 3Q2024 and highlight flows for Moutai, Midea, Wuliangye, Catl, Gree Electric Appliances.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Willsemi (603501 CH) - Solid 1H24 Results with Continued Recovery in CIS Business

Willsemi released 1H24 results. Revenue increased by 36.5% YoY to RMB12bn, while net profit grew 790% YoY from a low base in 1H23 (RMB153mn) to...

CMB International

Northbound Flows (Aug 16th): CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CATL (ticker: 300750 CH).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes as Adds Outperform

There could be 12 adds, 6 deletes in Dec. Impact is not very large, but 12 stocks will have flows from other index trackers too. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

Willsemi (603501 CH) - 3Q Results in Line with Gradual Recovery

The company achieved a record quarterly revenue of RMB6.8bn (up 9.5% YoY/5.7% QoQ), 2%/4% lower than our estimate/consensus.

CMB International

Northbound Flows (3Q2024): Wait and See Mode

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 3Q2024 and highlight flows for Moutai, Midea, Wuliangye, Catl, Gree Electric Appliances.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Willsemi (603501 CH) - Solid 1H24 Results with Continued Recovery in CIS Business

Willsemi released 1H24 results. Revenue increased by 36.5% YoY to RMB12bn, while net profit grew 790% YoY from a low base in 1H23 (RMB153mn) to...

CMB International

Northbound Flows (Aug 16th): CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CATL (ticker: 300750 CH).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM