IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcash" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40108:1" rel="noopener">GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM)</a> is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion at PHP10.00 per share. Pricing is on 1 October.</li>
<li>I discussed the IPO in <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mynt-gcash-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:249615" rel="noopener">Mynt (GCash) IPO: The Investment Case</a></strong></em>. I have updated my view and forecasts for the 2Q results.</li>
<li>My view is incrementally bearish due to escalating regulatory risk, declining sequential quarterly growth/margin, ongoing pressure in payment solutions, and stretched valuation. </li>
</ul>



GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM) is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion at PHP10.00 per share. Pricing is on 1 October.
I discussed the IPO in Mynt (GCash) IPO: The Investment Case. I have updated my view and forecasts for the 2Q results.
My view is incrementally bearish due to escalating regulatory risk, declining sequential quarterly growth/margin, ongoing pressure in payment solutions, and stretched valuation. 


Mynt (GCash) IPO: 2Q and Valuation Update

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Macroeconomics

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<li>The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.</li>
<li>The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.</li>
<li>Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.</li>
</ul>


The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.
The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.
Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.


Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn</li>
<li>Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate</li>
<li>We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn
Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate
We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Naveen Jindal Group to Invest INR 2,160 Crore in Cement Expansion</li>
<li>Bharti Airtel Secures CCI Nod to Raise Stake in Indus Towers</li>
<li>Reliance Infrastructure to Invest INR 10,000 Crore in Defence Manufacturing</li>
</ul>


Naveen Jindal Group to Invest INR 2,160 Crore in Cement Expansion
Bharti Airtel Secures CCI Nod to Raise Stake in Indus Towers
Reliance Infrastructure to Invest INR 10,000 Crore in Defence Manufacturing


# 67 India Insight: Reliance Infra in Defence, Bharti Airtel CCI Nod, Naveen Jindal Cement Expansion

India

One97 Communications Ltd. is an Indian multinational technology company that provides digital payment and financial services to consumers and merchants. Its core offerings include payment services, lending, insurance, and wealth management, primarily through its flagship mobile wallet, Paytm. The company is headquartered in Noida, India, and was founded in 2000.

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Paytm (PAYTM IN)

Mynt (GCash) IPO: 2Q and Valuation Update

GCash (Mynt) is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion at PHP10.00 per share. In this note, I update...

Arun George

Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?

The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, expected to draw 400-450 million devotees, and could generate up to INR 2-2.5 lakh crore in financial transactions,...

Nitin Mangal

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

# 67 India Insight: Reliance Infra in Defence, Bharti Airtel CCI Nod, Naveen Jindal Cement Expansion

Major Indian companies making significant investments in various sectors to expand and strengthen their presence in the market.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mynt (GCash) IPO: 2Q and Valuation Update

GCash (Mynt) is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion at PHP10.00 per share. In this note, I update...

Arun George

Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?

​The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, expected to draw 400-450 million devotees, and could generate up to INR 2-2.5 lakh crore in financial transactions,...

Nitin Mangal

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. ​Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

# 67 India Insight: Reliance Infra in Defence, Bharti Airtel CCI Nod, Naveen Jindal Cement Expansion

​Major Indian companies making significant investments in various sectors to expand and strengthen their presence in the market.

Sudarshan Bhandari

The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, expected to draw 400-450 million devotees, and could generate up to INR 2-2.5 lakh crore in financial transactions,...

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Major Indian companies making significant investments in various sectors to expand and strengthen their presence in the market.