IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Oneconnect Financial Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)</a> disclosed a preconditional scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> at HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS).</li>
<li>Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest (net cash can fund 8 years of FCF burn).</li>
<li>Ping An has secured support from M&amp;G to lower vote risk. The key risk remains that an activist stealthily builds a blocking stake (below the 5% HKEx disclosure threshold).</li>
</ul>



Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK) disclosed a preconditional scheme offer from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) at HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS).
Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest (net cash can fund 8 years of FCF burn).
Ping An has secured support from M&amp;G to lower vote risk. The key risk remains that an activist stealthily builds a blocking stake (below the 5% HKEx disclosure threshold).


OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Preconditional Scheme Offer Is Below Net Cash

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Dual-Listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">OneConnect Financial Technology (6638 HK/OCFT US)</a>, a digital retail banking/commercial banking/ digital insurance play, has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0303/2025030303864.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a non-binding proposal from Ping An, OneConnect's controlling shareholder with 32.12%.</li>
<li>Ping An is offering, by way of a Scheme, HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. The price is final. </li>
<li>What now? Back in OneConnect's boards' court whether to engage or not. Which they should. No competing Offer will emerge.</li>
</ul>


Dual-Listed OneConnect Financial Technology (6638 HK/OCFT US), a digital retail banking/commercial banking/ digital insurance play, has announced a non-binding proposal from Ping An, OneConnect's controlling shareholder with 32.12%.
Ping An is offering, by way of a Scheme, HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. The price is final. 
What now? Back in OneConnect's boards' court whether to engage or not. Which they should. No competing Offer will emerge.


OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An's Fair NBIO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)</a> disclosed a preliminary non-binding privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> at HK$2.068 (US$7.98 per ADS), a 72.33% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect around net cash and is at a material discount to historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>If a binding proposal materialises, the offer price will not be increased. A high minority participation rate could be an issue for the vote.  </li>
</ul>



Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK) disclosed a preliminary non-binding privatisation offer from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) at HK$2.068 (US$7.98 per ADS), a 72.33% premium to the undisturbed price.
Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect around net cash and is at a material discount to historical trading ranges. 
If a binding proposal materialises, the offer price will not be increased. A high minority participation rate could be an issue for the vote.  


OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Negative EV Play Draws an Opportunistic Offer from Ping An

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a>, a logistics and infrastructure play, has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20251124/pdf/06sd9l6yvwkypf.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macquarie-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:310:1" rel="noopener">Macquarie Group (MQG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal "follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value." Dividends paid will be netted.</li>
<li>Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.</li>
</ul>



Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal "follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value." Dividends paid will be netted.
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.


<ul>
<li>For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

Hong Kong

Oneconnect Financial Technology Co., Ltd. software as a services. The Company offers technological applications for financial institutes such as digital transformations, revenue increase, and risk management. Oneconnect Financial Technology serves customers in China.

Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)

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Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Preconditional Scheme Offer Is Below Net Cash

The high takeover premium could suggest a fair offer. However, the offer is below net cash. The scheme should be blocked, but it is likely to go...

Arun George

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An's Fair NBIO

This should be done. But we are talking about an illiquid Hong Kong arb. and an indicative one at that. If you can get in around here - do so. I...

David Blennerhassett

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Negative EV Play Draws an Opportunistic Offer from Ping An

Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect around net cash and is at a material discount to historical trading...

Arun George

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie's Lobs NBIO

Timing to completion is the wild card - especially as it relates to ACCC. This is trading at 7.7%/10.5% gross/annualised spread, assuming nine...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

For the month of Oct 2025, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$33bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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