HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The cheap valuations of the Hong Kong market have driven an increase in privatisation activities. Stocks with profit, high net cash, and low P/B are likely candidates.</li>
<li>We discover 29 stocks with net cash more than their market capitalisation while having a P/B of below 0.5x. Many of them are small-cap stocks.</li>
<li>The cheapest five names are trading on P/B of no more than 0.2x. Also, six stocks have their major shareholders owning a significant 75% stake.</li>
</ul>


The cheap valuations of the Hong Kong market have driven an increase in privatisation activities. Stocks with profit, high net cash, and low P/B are likely candidates.
We discover 29 stocks with net cash more than their market capitalisation while having a P/B of below 0.5x. Many of them are small-cap stocks.
The cheapest five names are trading on P/B of no more than 0.2x. Also, six stocks have their major shareholders owning a significant 75% stake.


China & HK Strategy: Are These Stocks Potential Privatisation Targets?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Logistics and infrastructure play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube (QUB AU)</a> has announced the Macquarie Asset Management-led consortium has now firmed an Offer at A$5.20/share, the same price as the NBIO.</li>
<li>Terms equate to a 27.8% premium to undisturbed. And ~14.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Fully franked dividends up to A$0.40/share are permitted but will be netted. UniSuper to roll up its 15.07%</li>
<li>Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB, ACCC, OIO, and PNG regs.</li>
</ul>


Logistics and infrastructure play Qube (QUB AU) has announced the Macquarie Asset Management-led consortium has now firmed an Offer at A$5.20/share, the same price as the NBIO.
Terms equate to a 27.8% premium to undisturbed. And ~14.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Fully franked dividends up to A$0.40/share are permitted but will be netted. UniSuper to roll up its 15.07%
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB, ACCC, OIO, and PNG regs.


Qube (QUB AU): Trading Tight To Macquarie's Firm Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a>, a logistics and infrastructure play, has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20251124/pdf/06sd9l6yvwkypf.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macquarie-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:310:1" rel="noopener">Macquarie Group (MQG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal "follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value." Dividends paid will be netted.</li>
<li>Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.</li>
</ul>



Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal "follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value." Dividends paid will be netted.
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.


<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd October, PE outfit Adamantem Capital firmed its Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apiam-animal-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26109:1" rel="noopener">Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU)</a>, Australia's largest rural and regional veterinary group.</li>
<li>The A$0.87/share Offer Price was a 64.5% premium to last close. This included a permitted fully franked dividend up to A$0.10/share. Mix &amp; match options are afforded, including 100% scrip.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20251212/pdf/06t8y2p0w1dc35.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Booklet is now out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting on the 3rd February, and expected implementation on the 23rd Feb 2026. The IE (Kroll) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd October, PE outfit Adamantem Capital firmed its Offer for Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Australia's largest rural and regional veterinary group.
The A$0.87/share Offer Price was a 64.5% premium to last close. This included a permitted fully franked dividend up to A$0.10/share. Mix &amp; match options are afforded, including 100% scrip.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 3rd February, and expected implementation on the 23rd Feb 2026. The IE (Kroll) says "fair &amp; reasonable".


Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): 3rd Feb Vote On Adamantem's A$0.87/Share Offer

<ul>
<li>For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

China

OneConnect Financial Technology is a leading technology-as-a-service (TaaS) platform that provides cloud-native solutions for financial institutions. It offers digital banking, digital insurance, and the Gamma platform, leveraging AI, blockchain, and big data to enhance sales, risk management, and customer services. The company was founded in December 2015 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

OneConnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)

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OneConnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Are These Stocks Potential Privatisation Targets?

Hong Kong market sees a rise in privatisation as cheap valuations attract investors. We developed a list of 29 stocks attractive for potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Qube (QUB AU): Trading Tight To Macquarie's Firm Offer

That strikes me as being way too tight, even if factoring in franking credits for those who can take advantage; and especially noting ACCC may well...

David Blennerhassett

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie's Lobs NBIO

Ahead of the 15th Feb (recently extended) exclusive due diligence deadline, Macquarie Asset Management has reportedly started negotiating a...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

For the month of Oct 2025, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$33bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Are These Stocks Potential Privatisation Targets?

​Hong Kong market sees a rise in privatisation as cheap valuations attract investors. We developed a list of 29 stocks attractive for potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Qube (QUB AU): Trading Tight To Macquarie's Firm Offer

That strikes me as being way too tight, even if factoring in franking credits for those who can take advantage; and especially noting ACCC may well...

David Blennerhassett

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie's Lobs NBIO

Ahead of the 15th Feb (recently extended) exclusive due diligence deadline, Macquarie Asset Management has reportedly started negotiating a...

David Blennerhassett

Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): 3rd Feb Vote On Adamantem's A$0.87/Share Offer

Clean deal. Trading at terms. Unless in - and/or can take advantage of the franking credits - I would be looking elsewhere.

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

For the month of Oct 2025, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$33bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong market sees a rise in privatisation as cheap valuations attract investors. We developed a list of 29 stocks attractive for potential...