Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Surprisingly, NHN Entertainment (which was spun off from Naver in 2013) made USD40m investment in Ticket Monster (one of the three major social commerce companies in Korea along with the famous Coupang and WeMakePrice). In return of this investment, NHN Entertainment is believed to receive slightly less than 3 percent equity in Ticket Monster.Earlier this year, Ticket Monster publicly announced its plan of USD300m fundraising in a bid to compete more effectively against Softbank-backed Coupang…

Surprisingly, NHN Entertainment (which was spun off from Naver in 2013) made USD40m investment in Ticket Monster (one of the three major social commerce companies in Korea along with the famous Coupang and WeMakePrice). In return of this investment, NHN Entertainment is believed to receive slightly less than 3 percent equity in Ticket Monster.Earlier this year, Ticket Monster publicly announced its plan of USD300m fundraising in a bid to compete more effectively against Softbank-backed Coupang…

NHN Entertainment Invests in Ticket Monster - Implications for Softbank and Softbank-Backed Coupang

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a> will be deleted from a global index at the close on 27 February and passives need to sell a lot of stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a> is the worst performer among its software peers but now trades cheaper on most valuation metrics.</li>
<li>With all the take-private rumours coming to naught, the index deletion and increased real float could result in buyout firms stepping up (or the rumours recommencing!).</li>
</ul>



Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) will be deleted from a global index at the close on 27 February and passives need to sell a lot of stock.

Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) is the worst performer among its software peers but now trades cheaper on most valuation metrics.
With all the take-private rumours coming to naught, the index deletion and increased real float could result in buyout firms stepping up (or the rumours recommencing!).


Trend Micro (4704 JP): Trending Lower as Index Deletion Looms; Take-Private Opportunity?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The January 2022 FFW rebalance is not very large - about US$225mm a side. </li>
<li>30% of the interest is in two names - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/net-protections-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35162:1" rel="noopener">Net Protections (7383 JP)</a> as an add because of its recent IPO and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oracle-corp-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16787:1" rel="noopener">Oracle Corp Japan (4716 JP)</a> as a sell.</li>
<li>This event may get overshadowed by the TSE Market Structure revamp announced the same day.</li>
</ul>


The January 2022 FFW rebalance is not very large - about US$225mm a side. 
30% of the interest is in two names - Net Protections (7383 JP) as an add because of its recent IPO and Oracle Corp Japan (4716 JP) as a sell.
This event may get overshadowed by the TSE Market Structure revamp announced the same day.


TOPIX January 2022 FFW Rebalance - Much Nothing To Do

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

In relation to my previous articles "Update on "Transitional Measures" for TSE Market Reorganization" and "TOPIX Reform Update", I would like to update you on a noteworthy disclosure. On September 21, Oracle Corporation Japan (4716) made a disclosure titled "Announcement of Application for Selection of New Market Category "Standard Market."" Currently, many listed companies have released "Notice of Application for Selection of New Market Classification". The reason why Oracle Corporation Japan (4716)'s disclosure attracted attention is that the company, which is currently listed on the TSE 1st Section, has applied for the new market segment "Standard Market". As you know, under the new market classification, the market will be reorganized into three markets: Prime Market, Standard Market, and Growth Market. The current TSE 1st Section is roughly equivalent to the Prime Market, the TSE 2nd Section and the JASDAQ Market are roughly equivalent to the Standard Market, and the TSE Mothers Market is roughly equivalent to the Growth Market. Oracle Corporation Japan, which is currently listed on the TSE 1st Section, chose to list on the Standard Market, which is considered to be the equivalent of the TSE 2nd Section and the JASDAQ Market, which is different from what most listed companies are doing.

In relation to my previous articles "Update on "Transitional Measures" for TSE Market Reorganization" and "TOPIX Reform Update", I would like to update you on a noteworthy disclosure. On September 21, Oracle Corporation Japan (4716) made a disclosure titled "Announcement of Application for Selection of New Market Category "Standard Market."" Currently, many listed companies have released "Notice of Application for Selection of New Market Classification". The reason why Oracle Corporation Japan (4716)'s disclosure attracted attention is that the company, which is currently listed on the TSE 1st Section, has applied for the new market segment "Standard Market". As you know, under the new market classification, the market will be reorganized into three markets: Prime Market, Standard Market, and Growth Market. The current TSE 1st Section is roughly equivalent to the Prime Market, the TSE 2nd Section and the JASDAQ Market are roughly equivalent to the Standard Market, and the TSE Mothers Market is roughly equivalent to the Growth Market. Oracle Corporation Japan, which is currently listed on the TSE 1st Section, chose to list on the Standard Market, which is considered to be the equivalent of the TSE 2nd Section and the JASDAQ Market, which is different from what most listed companies are doing.

Japan's Governance: TSE Market Reclassification Update: Oracle Japan (4716)

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Oracle Japan dropped 15% on Friday (June 25) after the announcement of disappointing results on Thursday. The share price is down 39% from its 52-week high (reached in February) and down 21% since we last wrote on the company at the end of March.What to do with it now?Performance deteriorated significantly in 4Q of FY May-21, when a 23.4% year-on-year decline in Cloud &amp; On-Premise License revenues more than offset growth in service and hardware, resulting in a 5.8% decline in operating profit and a 5.5% decline in net profit.On top of that, management is guidance for an increase in revenues of only 1% to 4% and an increase in EPS of 0.3% to 2.9% in the new fiscal year, pointing to a slow recovery with little room left for cost cutting.With the forward (guidance-based) P/E ratio down to 22x, Oracle Japan may no longer be a short, but it is not much of an investment either. If you like the business, look at the parent company.In the same three months to May, Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL) reported 8% growth in revenues, 5% growth in operating profit and a 40% operating margin (vs. 34% for Oracle Japan). ORCL is selling at 17x projected earnings.

Oracle Japan dropped 15% on Friday (June 25) after the announcement of disappointing results on Thursday. The share price is down 39% from its 52-week high (reached in February) and down 21% since we last wrote on the company at the end of March.What to do with it now?Performance deteriorated significantly in 4Q of FY May-21, when a 23.4% year-on-year decline in Cloud &amp; On-Premise License revenues more than offset growth in service and hardware, resulting in a 5.8% decline in operating profit and a 5.5% decline in net profit.On top of that, management is guidance for an increase in revenues of only 1% to 4% and an increase in EPS of 0.3% to 2.9% in the new fiscal year, pointing to a slow recovery with little room left for cost cutting.With the forward (guidance-based) P/E ratio down to 22x, Oracle Japan may no longer be a short, but it is not much of an investment either. If you like the business, look at the parent company.In the same three months to May, Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL) reported 8% growth in revenues, 5% growth in operating profit and a 40% operating margin (vs. 34% for Oracle Japan). ORCL is selling at 17x projected earnings.

Oracle Japan (4716 JP): No Longer a Short, but Not Much of an Investment

Japan

ORACLE CORPORATION JAPAN sells a variety of software, including database management system software, application development tools, decision-making support tools, and business related applications.  The Company also provides support services for users.

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Oracle Corp Japan (4716 JP)

NHN Entertainment Invests in Ticket Monster - Implications for Softbank and Softbank-Backed Coupang

Surprisingly, NHN Entertainment (which was spun off from Naver in 2013) made USD40m investment in Ticket Monster (one of the three major social...

Sanghyun Park

TOPIX January 2022 FFW Rebalance - Much Nothing To Do

The TSE FFW review for Jan 2022 sees 60 names with changes. Gree's share cancellation would have been big but the TSE offset it with a FFW change....

Travis Lundy

Japan's Governance: TSE Market Reclassification Update: Oracle Japan (4716)

Oracle Corporation of Japan, currently listed on the TSE 1st Section, chose to list on the Standard Market instead of the Prime Market on September...

Metrical Inc

Oracle Japan (4716 JP): No Longer a Short, but Not Much of an Investment

Oracle Japan dropped 15% on weak 4Q results. Sales and profits both declined and FY Mar-22 guidance is for low single-digit recovery. It no longer...

Scott Foster

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NHN Entertainment Invests in Ticket Monster - Implications for Softbank and Softbank-Backed Coupang

Surprisingly, NHN Entertainment (which was spun off from Naver in 2013) made USD40m investment in Ticket Monster (one of the three major social...

Sanghyun Park

Trend Micro (4704 JP): Trending Lower as Index Deletion Looms; Take-Private Opportunity?

Trend Micro will be deleted from a global index this month and there is a lot for passives to sell. TM has underperformed peers and now trades...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX January 2022 FFW Rebalance - Much Nothing To Do

The TSE FFW review for Jan 2022 sees 60 names with changes. Gree's share cancellation would have been big but the TSE offset it with a FFW change....

Travis Lundy

Japan's Governance: TSE Market Reclassification Update: Oracle Japan (4716)

Oracle Corporation of Japan, currently listed on the TSE 1st Section, chose to list on the Standard Market instead of the Prime Market on September...

Metrical Inc

Oracle Japan (4716 JP): No Longer a Short, but Not Much of an Investment

Oracle Japan dropped 15% on weak 4Q results. Sales and profits both declined and FY Mar-22 guidance is for low single-digit recovery. It no longer...

Scott Foster