Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Across our active Global fund universe, Value managers have seen $41bn in outflows over the past 5-years, compared to $65bn of inflows in to Growth funds.</p><p>With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the 63 active Value funds in our analysis.</p><p>Overweights in EMEA persist against underweights in Asia and the Americas.  Financials, Materials and Industrials are the key overweights versus underweights in Information Technology.</p><p>US Financials are the standout overweight, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citigroup-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:279:1" rel="noopener">Citigroup Inc (C US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-express-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:916:1" rel="noopener">American Express Co (AXP US)</a> the key positions.  The FAAMG group of stocks remain key underweight holdings, though <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> is the most widely held of the group. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> is almost totally avoided and in Asia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> screen as 'Unloved' by global active Value managers.</p>

Across our active Global fund universe, Value managers have seen $41bn in outflows over the past 5-years, compared to $65bn of inflows in to Growth funds.With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the 63 active Value funds in our analysis.Overweights in EMEA persist against underweights in Asia and the Americas.  Financials, Materials and Industrials are the key overweights versus underweights in Information Technology.US Financials are the standout overweight, with Citigroup Inc (C US) and American Express Co (AXP US) the key positions.  The FAAMG group of stocks remain key underweight holdings, though Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) is the most widely held of the group. Tesla Motors (TSLA US) is almost totally avoided and in Asia, Meituan (3690 HK) , JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) and Pinduoduo (PDD US) screen as 'Unloved' by global active Value managers.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linklogis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31126:1" rel="noopener">Linklogis (LINK HK)</a> is a leading technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China. Its solutions optimise the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. Linklogis is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, CITIC Capital, GIC and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a>. Linklogis will launch an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion on Friday, according to press reports.</p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-ipo-initiation-isupply" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47017" rel="noopener">Linklogis IPO Initiation: ISupply</a>, we stated that Linklogis is an attractive play on China’s supply chain finance market by combining a sensible monetisation model, high customer retention rate (good revenue visibility) and strong operating leverage. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-ipo-every-little-helps" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49480" rel="noopener">Linklogis IPO: Every Little Helps</a>, we noted that based on the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments, we continue to believe that Linklogis’ fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Linklogis' potential valuation. </p></div></div>

Linklogis (LINK HK) is a leading technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China. Its solutions optimise the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. Linklogis is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), CITIC Capital, GIC and Standard Chartered (STAN LN). Linklogis will launch an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion on Friday, according to press reports.In Linklogis IPO Initiation: ISupply, we stated that Linklogis is an attractive play on China’s supply chain finance market by combining a sensible monetisation model, high customer retention rate (good revenue visibility) and strong operating leverage. In Linklogis IPO: Every Little Helps, we noted that based on the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments, we continue to believe that Linklogis’ fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Linklogis' potential valuation. 

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linklogis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31126:1" rel="noopener">Linklogis (LINK HK)</a> is a leading technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China. Its solutions optimise the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. Linklogis was the leading technology solution providers in China with a 20.6% market share of supply chain finance transactions processed in 2020, according to CIC. Linklogis is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, CITIC Capital, GIC and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a>. Linklogis has started pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion, according to press reports.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-ipo-initiation-isupply" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47017" rel="noopener">Linklogis IPO Initiation: ISupply</a>, we stated that Linklogis is an attractive play on China’s supply chain finance market by combining a sensible monetisation model, high customer retention rate (good revenue visibility) and strong operating leverage. In this note, we examine the 2020 results and recent developments disclosed in the PHIP. Overall, we continue to believe that Linklogis’ fundamentals are attractive.  </p></div>

Linklogis (LINK HK) is a leading technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China. Its solutions optimise the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. Linklogis was the leading technology solution providers in China with a 20.6% market share of supply chain finance transactions processed in 2020, according to CIC. Linklogis is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), CITIC Capital, GIC and Standard Chartered (STAN LN). Linklogis has started pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion, according to press reports.In Linklogis IPO Initiation: ISupply, we stated that Linklogis is an attractive play on China’s supply chain finance market by combining a sensible monetisation model, high customer retention rate (good revenue visibility) and strong operating leverage. In this note, we examine the 2020 results and recent developments disclosed in the PHIP. Overall, we continue to believe that Linklogis’ fundamentals are attractive.  

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>The Nikkei reported on Monday (08<sup>th</sup> March 2021) that the Japanese electronics maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panasonic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1" rel="noopener">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a>  is set to acquire Blue Yonder, a leader in the US supply chain software market for JPY700bn (approx. US$6.5bn). Blue Yonder is mainly focused on supply chain management and Panasonic in May 2020 bought a 20% stake in the former for about JPY86bn.</p><p>Panasonic is said to be in the final stages of purchasing the rest of Blue Yonder’s shares from its other shareholders that include Blackstone Group and New Mountain Capital. If completed, the deal would mark Panasonic’s largest M&amp;A since 2011 where it spent JPY800bn on making Sanyo Electric and Panasonic Electric Works wholly owned subsidiaries.</p>

The Nikkei reported on Monday (08th March 2021) that the Japanese electronics maker Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)  is set to acquire Blue Yonder, a leader in the US supply chain software market for JPY700bn (approx. US$6.5bn). Blue Yonder is mainly focused on supply chain management and Panasonic in May 2020 bought a 20% stake in the former for about JPY86bn.Panasonic is said to be in the final stages of purchasing the rest of Blue Yonder’s shares from its other shareholders that include Blackstone Group and New Mountain Capital. If completed, the deal would mark Panasonic’s largest M&amp;A since 2011 where it spent JPY800bn on making Sanyo Electric and Panasonic Electric Works wholly owned subsidiaries.

Panasonic in Talks to Buy Blue Yonder; Supply Chain Management Likely to Be a Key Growth Driver

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Oracle Corporation supplies software for enterprise information management. The Company offers databases and relational servers, application development and decision support tools, and enterprise business applications. Oracle's software runs on network computers, personal digital assistants, set-top devices, PCs, workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and massively parallel computers.

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Oracle Corp (ORCL US)

Where Are Global Value Funds Positioned?

With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the active Global Value funds...

Steven Holden

Linklogis IPO: Valuation First Look

Linklogis will launch an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion on Friday, according to press reports. In this note, we present our forecasts and...

Arun George

Linklogis IPO: Every Little Helps

Linklogis has started pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion, according to press reports. The PHIP which discloses the 2020...

Arun George

Panasonic in Talks to Buy Blue Yonder; Supply Chain Management Likely to Be a Key Growth Driver

The acquisition of Blue Yonder should help Panasonic transform away from its hardware business into a recurring revenue mode such as its consumer...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Amazon 4Q20: The GOAT Departs

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is stepping down. We doubt he steps away. 2021 is a unique setup. Its the first time Amazon was up during a big capacity...

Aaron Gabin

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