IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/modec-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1" rel="noopener">Modec Inc (6269 JP)</a>'s  US$535 million secondary offering.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-rom-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2686:1" rel="noopener">I'Rom Group (2372 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Modec Inc (6269 JP)'s  US$535 million secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: ESR Group (1821 HK), L'Occitane (973 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK), I'Rom Group (2372 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP). 



Weekly Deals Digest (19 May) - ESR Group, L'Occitane, CPMC, Malaysia Airports, I'Rom, Modec

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-marine-solution-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41002:1" rel="noopener">HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a> have strong IPO debuts.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infocom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8412:1" rel="noopener">Infocom Corp (4348 JP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) and ZEEKR (ZK US) have strong IPO debuts.
Event-Driven developments China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Alps Logistics (9055 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP). 



Weekly Deals Digest (12 May) - China TCM, GA Pack, HEC CJ Pharma, CPMC, Alps Logistics, Infocom

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> has a pre-conditional voluntary offer from Changping Industrial at HK$6.87 and potentially a competing offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>Five months after announcing its offer, Changping Industrial obtained regulatory approvals from all except SAMR, SAFE, and the Vietnam Competition Commission. </li>
<li>An ORG offer seems unlikely due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional before the ORG obtains regulatory approvals.</li>
</ul>



CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has a pre-conditional voluntary offer from Changping Industrial at HK$6.87 and potentially a competing offer from ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH). 
Five months after announcing its offer, Changping Industrial obtained regulatory approvals from all except SAMR, SAFE, and the Vietnam Competition Commission. 
An ORG offer seems unlikely due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional before the ORG obtains regulatory approvals.


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Nearing the Cut-Off Point for Its Competing Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 6th Dec 2023, packaging play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1206/2023120601566.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Offer from SASAC and the National Council for Social Security Fund of China (NCSSF). </li>
<li>A decent premium (32.1%), presumed rubber-stamped regulatory approvals, and a 50% acceptance condition with 29.7% in the bag - this Offer looked done. Then ORG announced a possible competing proposal.</li>
<li>Nearly four months have elapsed and details on ORG's Offer remain unknown. SASAC/NCSSF chip away at reg approvals. Shares are down 2.6% from its recent peak. That makes sense.</li>
</ul>


On the 6th Dec 2023, packaging play CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer from SASAC and the National Council for Social Security Fund of China (NCSSF). 
A decent premium (32.1%), presumed rubber-stamped regulatory approvals, and a 50% acceptance condition with 29.7% in the bag - this Offer looked done. Then ORG announced a possible competing proposal.
Nearly four months have elapsed and details on ORG's Offer remain unknown. SASAC/NCSSF chip away at reg approvals. Shares are down 2.6% from its recent peak. That makes sense.


CPMC (906 HK): Shares Retrace As Clock Ticks On ORG's Bid

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are convinced that both bids for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> will go ahead, as they are progressing well. The downside risk is minimal, in our view.</li>
<li>The strong underlying result justifies a high price for the stock. Excluding distortions from non-recurring items in FY22, earnings have increased by 32.7% in FY23 and 26.8% in 2H23.</li>
<li>The stock now trades on 13.8x and 12.8x PERs for FY24 and FY25, in line with sector average; but below that for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-baosteel-packaging-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25102:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We are convinced that both bids for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) will go ahead, as they are progressing well. The downside risk is minimal, in our view.
The strong underlying result justifies a high price for the stock. Excluding distortions from non-recurring items in FY22, earnings have increased by 32.7% in FY23 and 26.8% in 2H23.
The stock now trades on 13.8x and 12.8x PERs for FY24 and FY25, in line with sector average; but below that for Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH). 


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): All Eyes on the Bids, but Underlying Still Solid

China

ORG Technology Co., Ltd. develops, designs, manufactures and sells food and beverages metal packaging products. The Company's main products include food and beverage cans.

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ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)

Weekly Deals Digest (19 May) - ESR Group, L'Occitane, CPMC, Malaysia Airports, I'Rom, Modec

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (ESR, L'Occitane, CPMC, Malaysia Airports, I'Rom, Great Eastern) and ECM (Modec).

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (12 May) - China TCM, GA Pack, HEC CJ Pharma, CPMC, Alps Logistics, Infocom

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (China TCM, GA Pack, HEC CJ Pharma, CPMC, Alps Logistics, Infocom, Hollysys, Adbri, Qantm...

Arun George

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Nearing the Cut-Off Point for Its Competing Offer

An ORG offer has a low probability due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional...

Arun George

CPMC (906 HK): Shares Retrace As Clock Ticks On ORG's Bid

I wouldn't enter here. I think ORG has run out of time to make an Offer. I'd be a buyer ~HK$6.75, should shares dip to this level. Otherwise, I'd...

David Blennerhassett

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): All Eyes on the Bids, but Underlying Still Solid

Both bids for CPMC are progressing well, protecting its downside. Higher bid valuations are justified by strong underlying earnings growth. It...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Weekly Deals Digest (19 May) - ESR Group, L'Occitane, CPMC, Malaysia Airports, I'Rom, Modec

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (ESR, L'Occitane, CPMC, Malaysia Airports, I'Rom, Great Eastern) and ECM (Modec).

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (12 May) - China TCM, GA Pack, HEC CJ Pharma, CPMC, Alps Logistics, Infocom

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (China TCM, GA Pack, HEC CJ Pharma, CPMC, Alps Logistics, Infocom, Hollysys, Adbri, Qantm...

Arun George

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Nearing the Cut-Off Point for Its Competing Offer

An ORG offer has a low probability due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional...

Arun George

CPMC (906 HK): Shares Retrace As Clock Ticks On ORG's Bid

I wouldn't enter here. I think ORG has run out of time to make an Offer. I'd be a buyer ~HK$6.75, should shares dip to this level. Otherwise, I'd...

David Blennerhassett

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): All Eyes on the Bids, but Underlying Still Solid

​Both bids for CPMC are progressing well, protecting its downside. Higher bid valuations are justified by strong underlying earnings growth. It...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Both bids for CPMC are progressing well, protecting its downside. Higher bid valuations are justified by strong underlying earnings growth. It...