External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Demand remains subdued in Q2FY26: As per discussions with cement companies, dealers and marketing executives, cement demand failed to firm up in Q2FY26, impacted by the extended monsoon and GST rate cut announcement, which was implemented with a lag</li><li>Cement demand in Q4FY25/Q1FY26 remained subdued at ~3-5% YoY, Q2 performance too, following the same trajectory, remained similar, in our view</li><li>While the aggregate sales volume for our coverage universe is expected to increase by 9% YoY (impact of Orient Cement and India Cements acquisitions), LTL volumes should grow at ~3.4% YoY (on a low base of ~2% YoY)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand remains subdued in Q2FY26: As per discussions with cement companies, dealers and marketing executives, cement demand failed to firm up in Q2FY26, impacted by the extended monsoon and GST rate cut announcement, which was implemented with a lagCement demand in Q4FY25/Q1FY26 remained subdued at ~3-5% YoY, Q2 performance too, following the same trajectory, remained similar, in our viewWhile the aggregate sales volume for our coverage universe is expected to increase by 9% YoY (impact of Orient Cement and India Cements acquisitions), LTL volumes should grow at ~3.4% YoY (on a low base of ~2% YoY)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q2FY26 Results Preview): Muted demand, stable prices, healthy margins

<ul><li>Subdued demand growth, despite a low base, cement prices continue to recover in east/south regions: Cement demand in Q1FY26 has been muted with ~4-5% growth YoY, despite a low base</li><li>This is majorly attributed to early onset of monsoon in India this time</li><li>We estimate our coverage universe to report 7% YoY volume growth in Q1FY26</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Subdued demand growth, despite a low base, cement prices continue to recover in east/south regions: Cement demand in Q1FY26 has been muted with ~4-5% growth YoY, despite a low baseThis is majorly attributed to early onset of monsoon in India this timeWe estimate our coverage universe to report 7% YoY volume growth in Q1FY26Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: Margin Recovery Continues as Prices Firm Up

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ambuja Cements’ Acquisition of Stake in Orient Cement Limited: On October 22, 2024, Ambuja Cements, part of the Adani Group, announced its acquisition of a 46.8% stake in Orient Cement Limited (OCL) for Rs 8,100 Cr at Rs 395 per share.</li><li>As part of this transaction, Ambuja will make an open offer to OCL’s public shareholders for an additional 26% stake.</li><li>On November 6, 2024, Ambuja Cements extended an open offer to acquire 5.34 Cr shares at Rs 395.40/share, amounting to Rs 2,112 Cr, for eligible shareholders of Orient Cement Limited by the SEBI (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulations, 2011.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ambuja Cements’ Acquisition of Stake in Orient Cement Limited: On October 22, 2024, Ambuja Cements, part of the Adani Group, announced its acquisition of a 46.8% stake in Orient Cement Limited (OCL) for Rs 8,100 Cr at Rs 395 per share.As part of this transaction, Ambuja will make an open offer to OCL’s public shareholders for an additional 26% stake.On November 6, 2024, Ambuja Cements extended an open offer to acquire 5.34 Cr shares at Rs 395.40/share, amounting to Rs 2,112 Cr, for eligible shareholders of Orient Cement Limited by the SEBI (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulations, 2011.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Orient Cement Limited - Lackluster Operating Performance

<ul><li>Demand fails to pick up in Q2FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during Q1FY25 (general elections, heat waves) continued in Q2FY25 due to demand sluggishness (elections impact and heavy rains all around)</li><li>At the industry level, we estimate demand contracted by 2% YoY in Q2FY25, as against ~4% YoY growth in Q1FY25</li><li>We estimate the aggregate volumes of our coverage universe will decline 1% YoY in Q2, implying a 14% QoQ volume decline</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand fails to pick up in Q2FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during Q1FY25 (general elections, heat waves) continued in Q2FY25 due to demand sluggishness (elections impact and heavy rains all around)At the industry level, we estimate demand contracted by 2% YoY in Q2FY25, as against ~4% YoY growth in Q1FY25We estimate the aggregate volumes of our coverage universe will decline 1% YoY in Q2, implying a 14% QoQ volume declineContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Demand Contracts and Pricing Slip Further in Q2

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in the current environment with a levy of windfall tax, (2) gas price realisation too unlikely to change significantly, as APM gas price is frozen until March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall under APM and (3) slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas production</li><li>In Q1FY25, reported EBITDA stood at INR 186bn (-4% YoY, +7% QoQ), coming in above our estimate owing to lower-than-expected statutory levies</li><li>PAT at INR 89bn (-11% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate, mainly driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and depletion costs</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in the current environment with a levy of windfall tax, (2) gas price realisation too unlikely to change significantly, as APM gas price is frozen until March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall under APM and (3) slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas productionIn Q1FY25, reported EBITDA stood at INR 186bn (-4% YoY, +7% QoQ), coming in above our estimate owing to lower-than-expected statutory leviesPAT at INR 89bn (-11% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate, mainly driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and depletion costsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

India

Orient Cement Limited manufactures and distributes cement.

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Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN)

Cement (Q2FY26 Results Preview): Muted demand, stable prices, healthy margins

vDemand remains subdued in Q2FY26: As per discussions with cement companies, dealers and marketing executives, cement demand failed to firm up in...

HDFC Securities

Cement: Margin Recovery Continues as Prices Firm Up

Subdued demand growth, despite a low base, cement prices continue to recover in east/south regions: Cement demand in Q1FY26 has been muted with ~4...

HDFC Securities

Orient Cement Limited - Lackluster Operating Performance

On October 22, 2024, Ambuja Cements, part of the Adani Group, announced its acquisition of a 46.8% stake in Orient Cement Limited (OCL) for Rs...

Axis Direct

Cement (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Demand Contracts and Pricing Slip Further in Q2

Demand fails to pick up in Q2FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during Q1FY25 (general elections, heat waves) continued in Q2FY25 due to...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in...

HDFC Securities

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