India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 Ambuja Cement has crossed the 100 MTPA capacity mark and is executing a roadmap for 140 MTPA by FY28 while targeting a INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA by the same year.</li>
<li>The integration of multiple recent acquisitions, including Orient, Sanghi, and Penna, is crucial; Q2FY26 results will offer the first look into how the new consolidated entity handles initial integration costs.</li>
<li>While Q1 FY26 set a high baseline, investors should  anticipate sequential dip in Q2 margins, viewing it as a short-term integration blip against a decade-defining capacity and cost rationalisation strategy.</li>
</ul>



 Ambuja Cement has crossed the 100 MTPA capacity mark and is executing a roadmap for 140 MTPA by FY28 while targeting a INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA by the same year.
The integration of multiple recent acquisitions, including Orient, Sanghi, and Penna, is crucial; Q2FY26 results will offer the first look into how the new consolidated entity handles initial integration costs.
While Q1 FY26 set a high baseline, investors should  anticipate sequential dip in Q2 margins, viewing it as a short-term integration blip against a decade-defining capacity and cost rationalisation strategy.


Ambuja Cement Q2 Preview: Seasonal Weakness or a Strategic Pause in the 140 MTPA Road?

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Indian cement industry saw strong demand in Q4 FY25, with industry volume growth of 4% YoY and leading players reporting double-digit sales growth.</li>
<li>Demand in April 2025 was weak across most regions due to severe heatwaves and labor shortages, slowing construction activity significantly.</li>
<li>Cement demand is expected to grow at 7–8% in FY26, driven by infrastructure projects and housing, with major players expanding capacity.</li>
</ul>


The Indian cement industry saw strong demand in Q4 FY25, with industry volume growth of 4% YoY and leading players reporting double-digit sales growth.
Demand in April 2025 was weak across most regions due to severe heatwaves and labor shortages, slowing construction activity significantly.
Cement demand is expected to grow at 7–8% in FY26, driven by infrastructure projects and housing, with major players expanding capacity.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambuja-cements-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14745:1" rel="noopener">Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN)</a>, established in 1983 by traders Narotam Sekhsaria and Suresh Neotia, leveraged strategic foresight to become a premier Indian cement giant within the diversified Adani Group.</li>
<li>In 2022, Adani acquired Ambuja Cement at INR 385/share, valuing it at INR 49,620 crore ($6.4 billion), at EBITDA/ton levels (INR900-INR1,000) similar to the company's current performance.</li>
<li>Ambuja Cement is strategically positioned to achieve a substantial 44% increase in its cement production capacity by FY28, reaching a total of 140 MTPA from the current 97 MTPA.</li>
</ul>



Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN), established in 1983 by traders Narotam Sekhsaria and Suresh Neotia, leveraged strategic foresight to become a premier Indian cement giant within the diversified Adani Group.
In 2022, Adani acquired Ambuja Cement at INR 385/share, valuing it at INR 49,620 crore ($6.4 billion), at EBITDA/ton levels (INR900-INR1,000) similar to the company's current performance.
Ambuja Cement is strategically positioned to achieve a substantial 44% increase in its cement production capacity by FY28, reaching a total of 140 MTPA from the current 97 MTPA.


The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements:  Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Oct-24, Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) acquired 46.8% stake in Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) at Rs. 396 per share.</li>
<li>Now Orient cement is trading at 20% discount to open offer price.</li>
<li>This process can take approx. 2 months and can generate ~10-15% risk adjusted return by Jan-25.</li>
</ul>


In Oct-24, Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) acquired 46.8% stake in Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) at Rs. 396 per share.
Now Orient cement is trading at 20% discount to open offer price.
This process can take approx. 2 months and can generate ~10-15% risk adjusted return by Jan-25.


Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Chola Securities

Chola Wealth Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Background: Orient Cement, a CK Birla group company, formed in 2012 following the demerger from Orient Paper and Industries ltd, is a mid-sized south based cement manufacturer. The company is one of the leading cement manufacturers in India with a capacity of 8 MTPA with clinker manufacturing capacity 5.5 MTPA and captive power capacity of 95MW. The Company operates 3 manufacturing facilities, located at Devapur (3 MTPA) in Telangana, Chittapur (3 MTPA) in...<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Background: Orient Cement, a CK Birla group company, formed in 2012 following the demerger from Orient Paper and Industries ltd, is a mid-sized south based cement manufacturer. The company is one of the leading cement manufacturers in India with a capacity of 8 MTPA with clinker manufacturing capacity 5.5 MTPA and captive power capacity of 95MW. The Company operates 3 manufacturing facilities, located at Devapur (3 MTPA) in Telangana, Chittapur (3 MTPA) in...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Orient Cement Limited manufactures and distributes cement.

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Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN)

Ambuja Cement Q2 Preview: Seasonal Weakness or a Strategic Pause in the 140 MTPA Road?

Ambuja Cement aims for 140 MTPA capacity by FY28 with INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA target, focusing on integrating recent acquisitions and managing...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Cement Wars: Ultratech Vs Adani Cements

Indian cement industry sees strong demand in Q4 FY25, but faces challenges in April 2025 due to heatwaves. In this insight, we are covering Q4...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

Ambuja Cements, founded by Sekhsaria and Neotia, was acquired by Adani in 2022 for INR 49,620 crore, with plans to increase production capacity to...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja

Ambuja Cements acquired stake in Orient Cement at Rs. 396 per share, now trading at 20% discount, potential for 10-15% return by Jan-25.

Nimish Maheshwari

EARNINGS UPDATE-ORIENT CEMENT 1QFY22

Background: Orient Cement, a CK Birla group company, formed in 2012 following the demerger from Orient Paper and Industries ltd, is a mid-sized...

Chola Wealth Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ambuja Cement Q2 Preview: Seasonal Weakness or a Strategic Pause in the 140 MTPA Road?

​Ambuja Cement aims for 140 MTPA capacity by FY28 with INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA target, focusing on integrating recent acquisitions and managing...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Cement Wars: Ultratech Vs Adani Cements

​Indian cement industry sees strong demand in Q4 FY25, but faces challenges in April 2025 due to heatwaves. In this insight, we are covering Q4...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

​Ambuja Cements, founded by Sekhsaria and Neotia, was acquired by Adani in 2022 for INR 49,620 crore, with plans to increase production capacity to...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja

​Ambuja Cements acquired stake in Orient Cement at Rs. 396 per share, now trading at 20% discount, potential for 10-15% return by Jan-25.

Nimish Maheshwari

EARNINGS UPDATE-ORIENT CEMENT 1QFY22

Background: Orient Cement, a CK Birla group company, formed in 2012 following the demerger from Orient Paper and Industries ltd, is a mid-sized...

Chola Wealth Direct

Ambuja Cement aims for 140 MTPA capacity by FY28 with INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA target, focusing on integrating recent acquisitions and managing...

Indian cement industry sees strong demand in Q4 FY25, but faces challenges in April 2025 due to heatwaves. In this insight, we are covering Q4...

Ambuja Cements, founded by Sekhsaria and Neotia, was acquired by Adani in 2022 for INR 49,620 crore, with plans to increase production capacity to...

Ambuja Cements acquired stake in Orient Cement at Rs. 396 per share, now trading at 20% discount, potential for 10-15% return by Jan-25.