Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The "new" Economic Silk Belt initiative is not new, and includes more dimensions than initially believed to have. It is a positive for China and global infrastructure plays. But other issues include continued massive movement outward of people via construction workforces as well as potential and eventual growth of military influence.

The "new" Economic Silk Belt initiative is not new, and includes more dimensions than initially believed to have. It is a positive for China and global infrastructure plays. But other issues include continued massive movement outward of people via construction workforces as well as potential and eventual growth of military influence.

China's New International Political Economy

I recently had occasion to update my thinking on China, its massive waste generation in the last 10-15 years, and Chinese Communist Party members as major beneficiaries of this massive waste, and therefore also the continued need for Xi Jinping to keep cleaning up the more blatant instances of corruption and wealth transfer. The commodities boom of &lsquo;00s proved to be backed by a massive wave of over-production, waste and a social movement to self-enrichment by the privileged class of China. President Xi Jinping in many ways is now contributing to lower commodity prices as a byproduct of his crackdown. There is a twist, though. Not only does this piece make a link between Chinese Corruption and massive waste, but it also puts in its conclusions a couple of directional political Catch-22s President Xi may face.&nbsp;

I recently had occasion to update my thinking on China, its massive waste generation in the last 10-15 years, and Chinese Communist Party members as major beneficiaries of this massive waste, and therefore also the continued need for Xi Jinping to keep cleaning up the more blatant instances of corruption and wealth transfer. The commodities boom of &lsquo;00s proved to be backed by a massive wave of over-production, waste and a social movement to self-enrichment by the privileged class of China. President Xi Jinping in many ways is now contributing to lower commodity prices as a byproduct of his crackdown. There is a twist, though. Not only does this piece make a link between Chinese Corruption and massive waste, but it also puts in its conclusions a couple of directional political Catch-22s President Xi may face.&nbsp;

Implications and Fallout from Absolute Corruption of the Political Elite

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

This post is a follow-up to discuss potential follow-on impacts of Hutchison Whampoa's restructuring on the Watson's retail segment. With a deal for O2 in the works, a Watson's listing or sale could be a source of permanent funding for this transaction. As an entity with its own currency, Watson's could accelerate its expansion program. The same is true if a retailer with global ambitions buys control.

This post is a follow-up to discuss potential follow-on impacts of Hutchison Whampoa's restructuring on the Watson's retail segment. With a deal for O2 in the works, a Watson's listing or sale could be a source of permanent funding for this transaction. As an entity with its own currency, Watson's could accelerate its expansion program. The same is true if a retailer with global ambitions buys control.

Hutchison Whampoa Restructuring: Next Move for Watson's? Part Two

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> reported a 18.9% increase in FY25 net profit, the high end of the positive profit alert range. Net cash is healthy at 3.3% of market capitalisation.</li>
<li>The US-Iran conflict will tighten vessel supply and increase freight rates. Meanwhile, through fuel surcharges, SITC can mostly pass through the higher fuel costs. </li>
<li>At 4.3x P/B, against an ROE of 41-45% for FY26-27F, valuations are not overly stretched. The FY26 dividend yield of 7.7% is attractive.</li>
</ul>



SITC International (1308 HK) reported a 18.9% increase in FY25 net profit, the high end of the positive profit alert range. Net cash is healthy at 3.3% of market capitalisation.
The US-Iran conflict will tighten vessel supply and increase freight rates. Meanwhile, through fuel surcharges, SITC can mostly pass through the higher fuel costs. 
At 4.3x P/B, against an ROE of 41-45% for FY26-27F, valuations are not overly stretched. The FY26 dividend yield of 7.7% is attractive.


SITC International (1308 HK): Decently Attractive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 March.</li>
<li>We highlight 8 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> have better odds than others of being added to the index.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 March.
We highlight 8 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.

CATL (3750 HK), Yum China Holdings (9987 HK), WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) and 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) have better odds than others of being added to the index.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Mar26

Hong Kong

Orient Overseas (International) is an investment holding company primarily engaged in international container transport and logistics services, offering global containerized shipping and supply chain management. It also has interests in property investment and development. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Orient Overseas (International) (316 HK)

China's New International Political Economy

The "new" Economic Silk Belt initiative is not new, and includes more dimensions than initially believed to have. It is a positive for China and...

Charles De Trenck

Implications and Fallout from Absolute Corruption of the Political Elite

I recently had occasion to update my thinking on China, its massive waste generation in the last 10-15 years, and Chinese Communist Party members...

Charles De Trenck

Hutchison Whampoa Restructuring: Next Move for Watson's? Part Two

This post is a follow-up to discuss potential follow-on impacts of Hutchison Whampoa's restructuring on the Watson's retail segment. With a deal...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

SITC International (1308 HK): Decently Attractive

SITC Intl reports strong FY25 net profit growth, and the US-Iran conflict is not expected to have a material impact on its profitability....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Mar26

We highlight 8 potential adds to the HSI in March. CATL is still a high prob add along with Healthcare names. Estimated turnover is 4.1% and trade...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China's New International Political Economy

The "new" Economic Silk Belt initiative is not new, and includes more dimensions than initially believed to have. It is a positive for China and...

Charles De Trenck

Implications and Fallout from Absolute Corruption of the Political Elite

I recently had occasion to update my thinking on China, its massive waste generation in the last 10-15 years, and Chinese Communist Party members...

Charles De Trenck

Hutchison Whampoa Restructuring: Next Move for Watson's? Part Two

This post is a follow-up to discuss potential follow-on impacts of Hutchison Whampoa's restructuring on the Watson's retail segment. With a deal...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

SITC International (1308 HK): Decently Attractive

​SITC Intl reports strong FY25 net profit growth, and the US-Iran conflict is not expected to have a material impact on its profitability....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Mar26

We highlight 8 potential adds to the HSI in March. CATL is still a high prob add along with Healthcare names. Estimated turnover is 4.1% and trade...

Brian Freitas

SITC Intl reports strong FY25 net profit growth, and the US-Iran conflict is not expected to have a material impact on its profitability....