Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During the initial months of 2QFY24, both Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea experienced a significant double-digit QoQ drop in Google search interest.</li>
<li>Using Google Search trends data for the first two months of 2QFY24, we anticipate a QoQ decline of about 17% in Oriental Land's Theme Parks revenue, dropping below ¥100bn.</li>
<li>2QFY24 consensus OP is 2.5x above the company's guidance, and both short and medium term consensus revenue and OP targets for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> appear blatantly unachievable.</li>
</ul>


During the initial months of 2QFY24, both Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea experienced a significant double-digit QoQ drop in Google search interest.
Using Google Search trends data for the first two months of 2QFY24, we anticipate a QoQ decline of about 17% in Oriental Land's Theme Parks revenue, dropping below ¥100bn.
2QFY24 consensus OP is 2.5x above the company's guidance, and both short and medium term consensus revenue and OP targets for Oriental Land (4661 JP) appear blatantly unachievable.


Oriental Land: Google Searches For Tokyo Disneyland Dips Double Digits in July & August 2023

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The moment of truth is here, the Chinese are finally coming back to Japan. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourist arrivals in Japan. </li>
<li>It is trading at 0.04 PEG, a very low valuation considering its potential for producing large growth rate. </li>
</ul>


The moment of truth is here, the Chinese are finally coming back to Japan. 

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourist arrivals in Japan. 
It is trading at 0.04 PEG, a very low valuation considering its potential for producing large growth rate. 


Keisei Electric (9009): The Chinese Are Back.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY)</a> September rebalance ended yesterday. There should be three index changes, potential stepwise inclusion, no <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a> capping and a big funding trade.</li>
<li>There appears to be decent positioning on the potential adds, while it is the close adds that are spiking along with a big increase in traded volumes.</li>
<li>If the three changes are on expected lines, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.01% resulting in a one-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn). </li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY) September rebalance ended yesterday. There should be three index changes, potential stepwise inclusion, no Fast Retailing capping and a big funding trade.
There appears to be decent positioning on the potential adds, while it is the close adds that are spiking along with a big increase in traded volumes.
If the three changes are on expected lines, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.01% resulting in a one-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn). 


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Final Look as Review Period Ends

<ul>
<li>There is a possibility that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s revenue and OP in 1QFY24 could surpass the consensus estimates by 8% and 21%, respectively.</li>
<li>However, the outlook for the next three quarters may be different, as consensus appears inflated with annual OP expectations of ¥154.5bn compared to the company's guidance of ¥122bn.</li>
<li>We find medium term consensus expectations unrealistic, leading to potential downside for Oriental Land. We expect FY+2 EV/OP to decline from 46x to 20-30x.</li>
</ul>


There is a possibility that Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s revenue and OP in 1QFY24 could surpass the consensus estimates by 8% and 21%, respectively.
However, the outlook for the next three quarters may be different, as consensus appears inflated with annual OP expectations of ¥154.5bn compared to the company's guidance of ¥122bn.
We find medium term consensus expectations unrealistic, leading to potential downside for Oriental Land. We expect FY+2 EV/OP to decline from 46x to 20-30x.


Oriental Land: A Potential Beat Next Quarter, but Unrealistic Consensus for Long-Term

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the proposed Tokyo Disney Sea expansion in 2015, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s price perfromance has significantly diverged from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s price performance.</li>
<li>The valuation disparity may result from the Disney Sea expansion's impact, possibly due to Keisei Electric's value-oriented investor base.</li>
<li>Fantasy Springs' opening could resolve the valuation distortion, leading to potential rewards in a Long Keisei Electric and Short Oriental Land trade.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the proposed Tokyo Disney Sea expansion in 2015, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s price perfromance has significantly diverged from Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s price performance.
The valuation disparity may result from the Disney Sea expansion's impact, possibly due to Keisei Electric's value-oriented investor base.
Fantasy Springs' opening could resolve the valuation distortion, leading to potential rewards in a Long Keisei Electric and Short Oriental Land trade.


Keisei Electric: Valuation Distortion Set to Unravel with Fantasy Springs' Opening in Spring 2024

Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Oriental Land: Google Searches For Tokyo Disneyland Dips Double Digits in July & August 2023

Tokyo Disneyland & DisneySea's lower Google interest in early 2QFY24 may cause a 17% QoQ revenue dip for Oriental Land's Theme Parks business.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric (9009): The Chinese Are Back.

The moment of truth is here, the Chinese are finally coming back to Japan. Keisei is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourism in Japan.

Henry Soediarko

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Final Look as Review Period Ends

The review period for the NKY Sep rebal ended yesterday. There should be 3 index changes, potential stepwise inclusion, no Fast Retailing capping...

Brian Freitas

Oriental Land: A Potential Beat Next Quarter, but Unrealistic Consensus for Long-Term

Oriental Land trades at 46x FY+2 EV/OP due to optimistic views on Fantasy Springs. However, we find consensus expectations for Fantasy Springs...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric: Valuation Distortion Set to Unravel with Fantasy Springs' Opening in Spring 2024

Keisei Electric's valuation has shown a notable deviation from Oriental Land's price performance, particularly since the announcement of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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