Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Activist investor, Elliott Management has acquired over a 2% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and is urging it to sell its 6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Elliott appears to have identified the path of least resistance, as Mitsui Fudosan had already indicated a willingness to sell its Oriental Land shares last year.</li>
<li>If Elliott's campaign proves successful, it will inadvertently benefit Palliser, which is currently challenging <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> with a similar proposal.</li>
</ul>


Activist investor, Elliott Management has acquired over a 2% stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and is urging it to sell its 6% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Elliott appears to have identified the path of least resistance, as Mitsui Fudosan had already indicated a willingness to sell its Oriental Land shares last year.
If Elliott's campaign proves successful, it will inadvertently benefit Palliser, which is currently challenging Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a similar proposal.


Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The FT carries an article this AM saying Elliott Management have built a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and has asked it to undertake measures to increase ROE.</li>
<li>Measures requested apparently include a very large buyback and a demand the company sell down its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>. The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ab5039ec-b135-4043-8645-c1b2f68f2ba0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> is worth reading.  </li>
<li>Shares are up sharply on this news. The fund was in the news last year about this time regarding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-nippon-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19388:1" rel="noopener">Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)</a>. I'd expect more noise to come. </li>
</ul>


The FT carries an article this AM saying Elliott Management have built a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and has asked it to undertake measures to increase ROE.
Measures requested apparently include a very large buyback and a demand the company sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP). The article is worth reading.  
Shares are up sharply on this news. The fund was in the news last year about this time regarding Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP). I'd expect more noise to come. 


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 3QFY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s revenue may fall short of the consensus estimate by approximately 3%, and its OP could be about 6% below the consensus.</li>
<li>Despite revising up its annual guidance in October 2023, the share price has not surpassed its previous highs since June of last year.</li>
<li>As such, a minor deviation from consensus, as we anticipate, has the potential to significantly impact price perfromance.</li>
</ul>


In 3QFY24, Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s revenue may fall short of the consensus estimate by approximately 3%, and its OP could be about 6% below the consensus.
Despite revising up its annual guidance in October 2023, the share price has not surpassed its previous highs since June of last year.
As such, a minor deviation from consensus, as we anticipate, has the potential to significantly impact price perfromance.


<ul>
<li>Google Search trends for Tokyo Disneyland and DisneySea in recent months point to potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's FQ3 performance.</li>
<li>Tokyo Disneyland's rising ticket prices have narrowed the cost gap with Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneyland, potentially leading to a loss of customers to its counterparts.</li>
<li>Should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> shares fail to surpass its recent peak in January next year, we think shares could undergo a rather substantial correction.</li>
</ul>


Google Search trends for Tokyo Disneyland and DisneySea in recent months point to potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's FQ3 performance.
Tokyo Disneyland's rising ticket prices have narrowed the cost gap with Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneyland, potentially leading to a loss of customers to its counterparts.
Should Oriental Land (4661 JP) shares fail to surpass its recent peak in January next year, we think shares could undergo a rather substantial correction.


Oriental Land: Approaching the Tipping Point

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Based in Hong Kong, Dream International is one of the largest toy manufacturers in the world. It specializes on plush stuffed toys and plastic figures. </li>
<li>Despite the global toys markets going into destocking cycle, the company has generated significant growth in operating profit in the past year driven by strong demand for plush stuffed toys.</li>
<li>If we assume a moderate 20% YoY increase in dividends in 2023, this would imply DPS of HKD 0.48 and this would suggest a dividend yield of 12.7% current prices. </li>
</ul>


Based in Hong Kong, Dream International is one of the largest toy manufacturers in the world. It specializes on plush stuffed toys and plastic figures. 
Despite the global toys markets going into destocking cycle, the company has generated significant growth in operating profit in the past year driven by strong demand for plush stuffed toys.
If we assume a moderate 20% YoY increase in dividends in 2023, this would imply DPS of HKD 0.48 and this would suggest a dividend yield of 12.7% current prices. 


Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

Activist investor Elliott Management urges Mitsui Fudosan to sell its stake in Oriental Land, potentially benefiting Palliser in its challenge...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)

An FT article says Elliott bought 2.5+% of Mitsui Fudosan this past year. Elliott want them to sell the Oriental Land stake, and buy back ¥1trln of...

Travis Lundy

Oriental Land: Earnings Preview

Despite last quarter's raised guidance, Oriental Land's share price hasn't exceeded its peak from June 2023, hinting that even a minor miss this...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Oriental Land: Approaching the Tipping Point

Google Search trends suggest potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's Q3 performance. Surging ticket prices narrow the cost gap with Shanghai...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asian Dividend Gems: Dream International

Based in Hong Kong, Dream International is one of the largest toy manufacturers in the world. It specializes on plush stuffed toys and plastic...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

​Activist investor Elliott Management urges Mitsui Fudosan to sell its stake in Oriental Land, potentially benefiting Palliser in its challenge...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)

An FT article says Elliott bought 2.5+% of Mitsui Fudosan this past year. Elliott want them to sell the Oriental Land stake, and buy back ¥1trln of...

Travis Lundy

Oriental Land: Earnings Preview

Despite last quarter's raised guidance, Oriental Land's share price hasn't exceeded its peak from June 2023, hinting that even a minor miss this...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Oriental Land: Approaching the Tipping Point

​Google Search trends suggest potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's Q3 performance. Surging ticket prices narrow the cost gap with Shanghai...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asian Dividend Gems: Dream International

Based in Hong Kong, Dream International is one of the largest toy manufacturers in the world. It specializes on plush stuffed toys and plastic...

Douglas Kim

Activist investor Elliott Management urges Mitsui Fudosan to sell its stake in Oriental Land, potentially benefiting Palliser in its challenge...

Google Search trends suggest potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's Q3 performance. Surging ticket prices narrow the cost gap with Shanghai...