Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week </li></ul>

A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week 

Origin Energy Ltd - Next Week At A Glance - 14-18 Jul 2025

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Australia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on ANZ, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Santos, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Anz, Santos, Rio Tinto.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Australia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on ANZ, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Santos, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Anz, Santos, Rio Tinto.


MSCI Australia Index Earning Revision (Nov): ANZ, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Santos

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.</li>
<li>The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? </li>
<li>And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE's similar critical assets? </li>
</ul>


There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? 
And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE's similar critical assets? 


Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC's Takeover

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 3rd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD28.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in ALS, Washington H Soul Pattinson&amp;Co, Brambles, CAR, Fortescue.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 3rd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD28.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in ALS, Washington H Soul Pattinson&amp;Co, Brambles, CAR, Fortescue.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 3rd): ALS, Washington H Soul Pattinson&Co, Brambles, CAR, Fortescue

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 30 September 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 
</li>
<li>
Highlights: Consensus is firmly for a hold (96% probability), but surprise cuts have historically doubled the market’s typical daily move. Sector impacts—banks vs. resources—closely examined.</li>
<li>
Why Read: An actionable roadmap to sector sensitivities, highlighting bank and resource ETFs as tactical vehicles if the RBA deviates from expectations.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 30 September 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 


Highlights: Consensus is firmly for a hold (96% probability), but surprise cuts have historically doubled the market’s typical daily move. Sector impacts—banks vs. resources—closely examined.

Why Read: An actionable roadmap to sector sensitivities, highlighting bank and resource ETFs as tactical vehicles if the RBA deviates from expectations.


RBA Rate Watch: Navigating ASX 200, Banks, and Resources

Australia

Origin Energy Limited is an integrated energy company. The Company is an energy retailer in Australia across electricity, gas and LPG. Origin Energy also holds a generation portfolio and fuel position and a renewable energy portfolio, as well as unconventional gas and LNG interests.

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Origin Energy (ORG AU)

Origin Energy Ltd - Next Week At A Glance - 14-18 Jul 2025

A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week

FNArena

MSCI Australia Index Earning Revision (Nov): ANZ, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Santos

We analyzed MSCI Australia's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in ANZ, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Santos, Qbe...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC's Takeover

Santos Ltd (STO AU) dives ~11% after Abu Dhabi walks away, two days before a formal deadline. "Sensationally ended", as The Australian words it? I...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 3rd): ALS, Washington H Soul Pattinson&Co, Brambles, CAR, Fortescue

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in ALS, Washington H Soul Pattinson&Co, Brambles, CAR,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

RBA Rate Watch: Navigating ASX 200, Banks, and Resources

30 September 2025 – RBA Rate Decision: Consensus points to a hold, but a surprise cut could shake markets. Key sectors—banks and resources—are...

Gaudenz Schneider

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