Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan’s banks face pressure on margins, credit costs and stock market losses. Much of this will worsen further since events in the UK. Unfortunately, for Japan’s banks, there is little in the way of ROA to give up, even for marginal financial deterioration.<h2>Margin pressure</h2> Japan’s banks face worse margin pressure since the negative interest rate policy took hold earlier this year.<div class="content-highlight">Where banks have excess deposits with the Bank of Japan, they will be paying for this, rather than receiving income.…</div>

Japan’s banks face pressure on margins, credit costs and stock market losses. Much of this will worsen further since events in the UK. Unfortunately, for Japan’s banks, there is little in the way of ROA to give up, even for marginal financial deterioration.Margin pressure Japan’s banks face worse margin pressure since the negative interest rate policy took hold earlier this year.Where banks have excess deposits with the Bank of Japan, they will be paying for this, rather than receiving income.…

Three Pronged Attack on Japan's Banks, Becomes More Pointed

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser extent. We plan to reduce the fair value estimates for Nomura Holdings as the company remains poorly positioned as a subscale investment bank with high conduct risk and repeated failures in expanding the global fixed income franchise. Nomura makes significant use of three subsidiaries under European Economic Area, or EEA, passporting privileges to reach its wholesale clients in continental Europe. For other banks, the impacts are likely to be less acute relative to Nomura as they do not hold too many derivative contracts under United Kingdom entities, and their direct exposures are largely limited to traditional lending functions to support foreign subsidiaries of the Japanese parent companies.Analysts: Mari Kumagai &amp; Michael Wu, CAIA

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser extent. We plan to reduce the fair value estimates for Nomura Holdings as the company remains poorly positioned as a subscale investment bank with high conduct risk and repeated failures in expanding the global fixed income franchise. Nomura makes significant use of three subsidiaries under European Economic Area, or EEA, passporting privileges to reach its wholesale clients in continental Europe. For other banks, the impacts are likely to be less acute relative to Nomura as they do not hold too many derivative contracts under United Kingdom entities, and their direct exposures are largely limited to traditional lending functions to support foreign subsidiaries of the Japanese parent companies.Analysts: Mari Kumagai &amp; Michael Wu, CAIA

The Brexit Vote Result Means Additional Headwinds ForJapanese Banks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Buybacks (or "own share purchases") by listed companies Japan are likely to be at a record this year. In only the first 5 months of calendar 2016, Japanese companies have announced JPY 4.3trln yen of buybacks, and in the past ten years, only two full years have seen higher totals (2007 and 2015 at just over 4.5trln yen each). There will likely be a lot more before the year-end and a lot of them will take place by ToSTNeT-3 buyback. The announcement today of a ToSTNeT-3 buyback by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:783">NTT</a>  for up to…

Buybacks (or "own share purchases") by listed companies Japan are likely to be at a record this year. In only the first 5 months of calendar 2016, Japanese companies have announced JPY 4.3trln yen of buybacks, and in the past ten years, only two full years have seen higher totals (2007 and 2015 at just over 4.5trln yen each). There will likely be a lot more before the year-end and a lot of them will take place by ToSTNeT-3 buyback. The announcement today of a ToSTNeT-3 buyback by NTT  for up to…

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative interest rates and lower yielding JGB’s and loans can affect some of Japans largest banks. And with little ROA at present, there is not much room to give up any net interest income, without facing a major drop in earnings.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>At 9M16</td>
<td>Cash</td>
<td>Securities</td>
<td>Loans</td>
<td>NIM (%)</td>
<td>Profit</td>
<td>LLP/loans(%)</td>
<td>LLP/profit(%)</td>
<td>ROA (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nishi-Nippon</td>
<td>454,094</td>
<td>1,869,789</td>
<td>6,366,571</td>
<td>1.17</td>
<td>25,326</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>4.56</td>
<td>0.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yamagu</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative interest rates and lower yielding JGB’s and loans can affect some of Japans largest banks. And with little ROA at present, there is not much room to give up any net interest income, without facing a major drop in earnings.

At 9M16
Cash
Securities
Loans
NIM (%)
Profit
LLP/loans(%)
LLP/profit(%)
ROA (%)


Nishi-Nippon
454,094
1,869,789
6,366,571
1.17
25,326
0.04
4.56
0.39


Yamagu

…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

Japan

ORIX Corporation provides comprehensive financial services throughout the world. The Company's business lines include leasing, real estate loans, life insurance, banking, and consumer finance.  The Company also operates Environment related business and Private equity investment business. ORIX has a professional baseball team, the ORIX Buffalos.

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Orix Corp (8591 JP)

Three Pronged Attack on Japan's Banks, Becomes More Pointed

Japan’s banks face pressure on margins, credit costs and stock market losses. Much of this will worsen further since events in the UK....

Daniel Tabbush

The Brexit Vote Result Means Additional Headwinds ForJapanese Banks

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser...

Morningstar, Inc.

JAPAN: How a ToSTNeT-3 Buyback Works

Buybacks (or "own share purchases") by listed companies Japan are likely to be at a record this year. In only the first 5 months of calendar 2016,...

Travis Lundy

Japan's Banks Can Lose 30% of Income

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative...

Daniel Tabbush

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and...

Greg Gibbs

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