Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>The difference is obvious when compared to Fancl's case. While Fancl chose to form capital alliance with Kirin (less than 1/3 ownership), All DHC shares will be transferred to ORIX.</li>
<li>We believe that many of the buyer companies were concerned about the negative impact of consolidating DHC with Yoshida, who has repeatedly made discriminatory remarks.</li>
<li>ORIX is required to show the future management strategy of DHC, and ORIX is responsible for explaining the transformation of DHC into a company that respects human rights.</li>
</ul>


The difference is obvious when compared to Fancl's case. While Fancl chose to form capital alliance with Kirin (less than 1/3 ownership), All DHC shares will be transferred to ORIX.
We believe that many of the buyer companies were concerned about the negative impact of consolidating DHC with Yoshida, who has repeatedly made discriminatory remarks.
ORIX is required to show the future management strategy of DHC, and ORIX is responsible for explaining the transformation of DHC into a company that respects human rights.


ORIX Has Responsibility to Explain Transformation of DHC into a Company that Respects Human Rights

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.</li>
<li>If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.</li>
<li>I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.</li>
</ul>


Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.


Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Rebalance to boot <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> and add <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> occurs today at the close. </li>
<li>The announcement was not a surprise per se, but BOTH have outperformed their Peer Baskets since the announcement, ORIX by a long ways.</li>
<li>ORIX is a bigger deal, Shinsei is worth buying a dip.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Rebalance to boot Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) and add Orix Corp (8591 JP) occurs today at the close. 
The announcement was not a surprise per se, but BOTH have outperformed their Peer Baskets since the announcement, ORIX by a long ways.
ORIX is a bigger deal, Shinsei is worth buying a dip.


Nikkei 225 Rebalance Day - Shinsei Dip Chance?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> at the close of trading on 1 April due to Shinsei Bank not trading on the Prime Market.</li>
<li>We estimate there will be passive buying of 27.5m shares on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> while there will be selling of 2.75m shares on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> </li>
<li>There appears to be some pre-positioning on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> - the stock could outperform heading into index inclusion. </li>
</ul>



Orix Corp (8591) replaces Shinsei Bank (8303) in the Nikkei 225 at the close of trading on 1 April due to Shinsei Bank not trading on the Prime Market.
We estimate there will be passive buying of 27.5m shares on Orix Corp (8591 JP) while there will be selling of 2.75m shares on Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) 
There appears to be some pre-positioning on Orix Corp (8591 JP) - the stock could outperform heading into index inclusion. 


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: ORIX (8591) Replaces Shinsei Bank (8303)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index team announced changes to the Nikkei 225 Average today after the close. </li>
<li>Shinsei Bank (8303) is OUT and ORIX (8591) is IN based on the new rule changes effective with the new market structure in place at the TSE on 4 April. </li>
<li>There is a special sit on Shinsei, and ORIX has several days to buy. It could be interesting.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index team announced changes to the Nikkei 225 Average today after the close. 
Shinsei Bank (8303) is OUT and ORIX (8591) is IN based on the new rule changes effective with the new market structure in place at the TSE on 4 April. 
There is a special sit on Shinsei, and ORIX has several days to buy. It could be interesting.


Nikkei 225 Change - Shinsei (8303) OUT, ORIX (8591) IN

Japan

ORIX Corporation provides comprehensive financial services throughout the world. The Company's business lines include leasing, real estate loans, life insurance, banking, and consumer finance.  The Company also operates Environment related business and Private equity investment business. ORIX has a professional baseball team, the ORIX Buffalos.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Orix Corp (8591 JP)

ORIX Has Responsibility to Explain Transformation of DHC into a Company that Respects Human Rights

I would like to discuss the issues on the November 11 Nikkei article, "ORIX to Acquire DHC for 300 Billion Yen, Largest Business Succession."

Metrical Inc

Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Bidders are approaching 2nd Round deadlines, and news/comments are starting to seep out. Expect more. I expect a decision at/after H1 results. If...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Rebalance Day - Shinsei Dip Chance?

Nikkei 225 Rebalance Day. Shinsei Out. ORIX In. Shinsei hasn't fallen in preparation but Orix is up strongly vs Peers in the period. There are two...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: ORIX (8591) Replaces Shinsei Bank (8303)

Orix Corp replaces Shinsei Bank in the Nikkei225 Index at the close on 1 April. Passive trackers will need to buy 27.5m shares of Orix and sell...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Change - Shinsei (8303) OUT, ORIX (8591) IN

The Nikkei 225 Change on 4 April 2022 is because there is a change in the rules with the adven of the new TSE market structure. This was known and...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)