Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Toshiba was taken over in late 2023 by a consortium led by local PE firm Japan Industrial Partners. The official takeover price was ¥2.0 trillion. </li>
<li>That was financed by ¥1.2trln of senior lending, ¥200bn of prefs, ¥520bn of equity, and ¥235.5bn of mezzanine finance which meant net debt on Day1 was likely about ¥1.1trln.</li>
<li>EBITDA was ¥180bn in Mar24, ¥338bn in Mar25, and ¥482bn in Mar26. Things are improving. And Toshiba held Kioxia shares. That's gone well too. How well? Look inside.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba was taken over in late 2023 by a consortium led by local PE firm Japan Industrial Partners. The official takeover price was ¥2.0 trillion. 
That was financed by ¥1.2trln of senior lending, ¥200bn of prefs, ¥520bn of equity, and ¥235.5bn of mezzanine finance which meant net debt on Day1 was likely about ¥1.1trln.
EBITDA was ¥180bn in Mar24, ¥338bn in Mar25, and ¥482bn in Mar26. Things are improving. And Toshiba held Kioxia shares. That's gone well too. How well? Look inside.


[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It has always fascinated me that in Japan price performance can be so seasonal. Take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP)</a> for instance, over the last 30 years on average Toyota is up 5% in December and down 3% in August. In no other month does average performance exceed 2%. Toyota is not even close to the worst. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19603" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1">Yahoo Japan Corp (4689 JP)</a> is the worst. On average, Yahoo is up 10% in February and in May it is down on average 7%. Below we screened for names with the highest volatility in monthly…

It has always fascinated me that in Japan price performance can be so seasonal. Take Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP) for instance, over the last 30 years on average Toyota is up 5% in December and down 3% in August. In no other month does average performance exceed 2%. Toyota is not even close to the worst. Yahoo Japan Corp (4689 JP) is the worst. On average, Yahoo is up 10% in February and in May it is down on average 7%. Below we screened for names with the highest volatility in monthly…

Most Seasonally Volatile Names and What to Expect in April.....

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

The analyst viewpoint series features interviews with analysts from several of the 46 markets covered in Euromonitor’s Consumer Finance research programme, discussing key payment trends or developments in their respective research markets.

The analyst viewpoint series features interviews with analysts from several of the 46 markets covered in Euromonitor’s Consumer Finance research programme, discussing key payment trends or developments in their respective research markets.

Analyst Viewpoint on Consumer Finance : Japan

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

This is the third report of "The Week That Was in North Asia@Smartkarma". This is a collaborative report among <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/713" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713">Mio Kato, CFA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/354" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354">Sanghyun Park</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/342" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342">Douglas Kim</a>, and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/25" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25">Travis Lundy</a>. It is written on a weekly, rotational basis among these four analysts (others are welcome!). The focus of this report is to recap the major insights about Japan and Korea featured on Smartkarma during the past week.<h2>Reminders of the Dotcom Bubble, Delayed Filings, Governance Issues and Political Threats... No Wonder North</h2>…

This is the third report of "The Week That Was in North Asia@Smartkarma". This is a collaborative report among Mio Kato, CFA, Sanghyun Park, Douglas Kim, and  Travis Lundy. It is written on a weekly, rotational basis among these four analysts (others are welcome!). The focus of this report is to recap the major insights about Japan and Korea featured on Smartkarma during the past week.Reminders of the Dotcom Bubble, Delayed Filings, Governance Issues and Political Threats... No Wonder North…

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma

Japan

ORIX Corporation provides comprehensive financial services throughout the world. The Company's business lines include leasing, real estate loans, life insurance, banking, and consumer finance.  The Company also operates Environment related business and Private equity investment business. ORIX has a professional baseball team, the ORIX Buffalos.

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Orix Corp (8591 JP)

[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba

In the 5 days since I published, Toshiba's Kioxia shares have added ¥930bn in value. After tax assuming sold, that would be ¥650bn and ¥324/Rohm...

Travis Lundy

Most Seasonally Volatile Names and What to Expect in April.....

It has always fascinated me that in Japan price performance can be so seasonal. Take Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP) for instance, over the last 30...

Custom Products Group

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

Analyst Viewpoint on Consumer Finance : Japan

The analyst viewpoint series features interviews with analysts from several of the 46 markets covered in Euromonitor’s Consumer Finance research...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma

This is the third report of "The Week That Was in North Asia@Smartkarma". This is a collaborative report among Mio Kato, CFA, Sanghyun Park,...

Mio Kato

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