Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the June index review on 11 June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.Today is the review cut-off date but with a 6 month averaging process we do not see one day of trading data making too much of a change in the forecast inclusions and exclusions.We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chalice-gold-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20193:1" rel="noopener">Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> as potential inclusions in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resolute-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1960:1" rel="noopener">Resolute Mining (RSG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perenti-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20505:1" rel="noopener">Perenti Global (PRN AU)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a> is a low probability add while the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.There is a large impact on the forecast adds and deletes but a lot of the stocks have moved significantly in the last couple of months.Short interest on the forecast inclusions has been dropping of late while the short interest on the forecast deletions has been increasing steadily

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the June index review on 11 June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.Today is the review cut-off date but with a 6 month averaging process we do not see one day of trading data making too much of a change in the forecast inclusions and exclusions.We see Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU), Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) as potential inclusions in the index replacing Resolute Mining (RSG AU), Austal Ltd (ASB AU) and Perenti Global (PRN AU).Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU) is a low probability add while the corresponding deletion is G8 Education (GEM AU).There is a large impact on the forecast adds and deletes but a lot of the stocks have moved significantly in the last couple of months.Short interest on the forecast inclusions has been dropping of late while the short interest on the forecast deletions has been increasing steadily

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Gold Miners Shining

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE:  Intouch, Toshiba, Orocobre/Galaxy, Tilt, Primewest/Centuria, Huarong

In a cyclical and volatile commodity sector, such as lithium, profitability is key during lean times.
Brisbane-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and Perth-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> are in effect, the poster children for Aussie-listed lithium producers.  Orocobre extracts the commodity from Argentinian brine ponds, and Galaxy from Western Australian rock. Two different lithium products in two different jurisdictions.
Amid a downturn in the price of the battery commodity and a reduction in tonnes exported, both Galaxy and Orocobre splashed red ink in <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02205130-6A969035?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY19</a> (Dec-end) and <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02273544-2A1246100?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY20</a> (June-end) respectively.
The downturn resulted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alita-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16331:1" rel="noopener">Alita Resources (AMS SP)</a> - in which Galaxy is a shareholder - going into administration, a situation that is still working its way through the <a href="https://www.miningweekly.com/article/galaxy-joins-the-fight-for-bald-hill-2021-02-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sale of asset process</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> acquired <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altura-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13385:1" rel="noopener">Altura Mining (AJM AU)</a> late last year after the latter entered receivership in November as the raw battery materials market nose-dived.
A reversal of fortunes has seen increased demand, and price, for Galaxy's spodumene concentrate, and Orocobre's Argentinian lithium bicarbonate. In its quarterly update on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02362944-2A1292351?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">13 April</a>, Orocobre said pricing was up more than 50% since the Dec-20 quarter, and nearly 90% in the last six months. 
<h3>The NEW News</h3>
After circling each other for a couple of years, Galaxy and Orocobre entered into a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02364542-2A1293132?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">binding agreement</a> earlier this week under which the two companies will merge via a Galaxy Scheme, following which, Orocobre will hold 100% in Galaxy.
Galaxy shareholders will receive 0.569 Orocobre shares for each Galaxy share. Upon implementation, Orocobre shareholders will own 54.2% of the enlarged entity, and Galaxy shareholders will own the remaining 45.8%.
The A$4bn combined entity will be the fifth-largest lithium producer - and third-largest outside of China - boasting a diversified product base via four producing assets.
The two companies classify this as a merger of equals, and in many respects it is. Each company will appoint four directors to the new nine-person board, and the chairman and deputy chairman’s jobs for the coming 12 months will be split down the middle until replacements are found.
This is an intelligent merger. Not only does it establish a foothold in South American brines and Western Australian/North American spodumene, something the world’s largest lithium producers seek to achieve, the new entity will be better positioned to weather a material correction in lithium prices.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/201/665/original/image_29076439221618885833728.png?1618885835" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="201665"></figure>

In a cyclical and volatile commodity sector, such as lithium, profitability is key during lean times.
Brisbane-based Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Perth-based Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) are in effect, the poster children for Aussie-listed lithium producers.  Orocobre extracts the commodity from Argentinian brine ponds, and Galaxy from Western Australian rock. Two different lithium products in two different jurisdictions.
Amid a downturn in the price of the battery commodity and a reduction in tonnes exported, both Galaxy and Orocobre splashed red ink in FY19 (Dec-end) and FY20 (June-end) respectively.
The downturn resulted in Alita Resources (AMS SP) - in which Galaxy is a shareholder - going into administration, a situation that is still working its way through the sale of asset process. In addition, Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) acquired Altura Mining (AJM AU) late last year after the latter entered receivership in November as the raw battery materials market nose-dived.
A reversal of fortunes has seen increased demand, and price, for Galaxy's spodumene concentrate, and Orocobre's Argentinian lithium bicarbonate. In its quarterly update on the 13 April, Orocobre said pricing was up more than 50% since the Dec-20 quarter, and nearly 90% in the last six months. 
The NEW News
After circling each other for a couple of years, Galaxy and Orocobre entered into a binding agreement earlier this week under which the two companies will merge via a Galaxy Scheme, following which, Orocobre will hold 100% in Galaxy.
Galaxy shareholders will receive 0.569 Orocobre shares for each Galaxy share. Upon implementation, Orocobre shareholders will own 54.2% of the enlarged entity, and Galaxy shareholders will own the remaining 45.8%.
The A$4bn combined entity will be the fifth-largest lithium producer - and third-largest outside of China - boasting a diversified product base via four producing assets.
The two companies classify this as a merger of equals, and in many respects it is. Each company will appoint four directors to the new nine-person board, and the chairman and deputy chairman’s jobs for the coming 12 months will be split down the middle until replacements are found.
This is an intelligent merger. Not only does it establish a foothold in South American brines and Western Australian/North American spodumene, something the world’s largest lithium producers seek to achieve, the new entity will be better positioned to weather a material correction in lithium prices.


<div>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.</div><div>
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> as potential inclusions to the index, while we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bravura-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23648:1" rel="noopener">Bravura Solutions (BVS AU)</a> as potential exclusions from the index.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> are close adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a> are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)</a> was included in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> following its merger of equals with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.
</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see Nuix Limited (NXL AU), Codan Ltd (CDA AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as potential inclusions to the index, while we see Service Stream (SSM AU), Tassal (TGR AU) and Bravura Solutions (BVS AU) as potential exclusions from the index.
Champion Iron (CIA AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) are close adds while Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU) and Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU) was included in the index replacing Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) following its merger of equals with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the December index review on 11 December and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.The data cutoff for the December review is 27 November.Using current market data, we expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kogan-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23575:1" rel="noopener">Kogan.com (KGN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a> to be included in the index, and see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cooper-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14286:1" rel="noopener">Cooper Energy (COE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-areas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15497:1" rel="noopener">Western Areas (WSA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a> as deletion candidates.Sitting very close to the buffer zone, we see a possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> being included in the index, in which case <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a> could be deleted.

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the December index review on 11 December and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.The data cutoff for the December review is 27 November.Using current market data, we expect Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Kogan.com (KGN AU) and Codan Ltd (CDA AU) to be included in the index, and see Cooper Energy (COE AU), Western Areas (WSA AU) and Service Stream (SSM AU) as deletion candidates.Sitting very close to the buffer zone, we see a possibility of De Grey Mining (DEG AU) being included in the index, in which case Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU) could be deleted.

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Down Under in December

Australia

Allkem Limited operates as a specialty lithium chemicals company. The Company's portfolio includes lithium brine and borax operations in Argentina, a hard-rock lithium operation in Australia and a lithium hydroxide conversion facility in Japan.

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Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Gold Miners Shining

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 in the June review. All inclusions/exclusions have over 3 days of ADV to trade from passive funds. Short...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Intouch, Toshiba, Orocobre/Galaxy, Tilt, Primewest/Centuria, Huarong

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Orocobre/Galaxy Resources: On A Charge

The merged entity will capture a greater market share of the lithium supply in coming years, and capitalise on mining synergies. Plus afford the...

David Blennerhassett

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

We see three potential changes to the ASX200 in the March review while there are another two close adds/deletes. High short interest on the...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Down Under in December

S&P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the December index review on 11 December and the...

Brian Freitas

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