Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li><li>Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li><li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li></ul>

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 21st March, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-money-uk-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22918:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Money UK (VUK AU/VMUK LN)</a></strong>, UK's sixth largest retail bank, entered into a Scheme with Nationwide Building Society, at 220 pence/share, in cash.</li>
<li>The consideration is a solid 38% premium to undisturbed. And shareholders backed terms at the<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240523/pdf/063v45k7bl776c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 22nd May Court Meeting</a>. Plus UK's CMA signed off on the <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240722/pdf/065sh1mr1c2vn9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">19th July</a>. </li>
<li>
<strong>What now?</strong> FCA/PRA approvals are the key remaining conditions. These regulatory approvals are imminent.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 21st March, Virgin Money UK (VUK AU/VMUK LN), UK's sixth largest retail bank, entered into a Scheme with Nationwide Building Society, at 220 pence/share, in cash.
The consideration is a solid 38% premium to undisturbed. And shareholders backed terms at the 22nd May Court Meeting. Plus UK's CMA signed off on the 19th July. 

What now? FCA/PRA approvals are the key remaining conditions. These regulatory approvals are imminent.


Nationwide/Virgin Money (VUK AU): At The Pointy End Of The Offer

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the December 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>This includes a couple of intra-review index changes that could be triggered by the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dechra-pharmaceuticals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21908:1" rel="noopener">Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chr-hansen-holding-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22322:1" rel="noopener">Chr Hansen Holding A/S (CHR DC)</a> takeover situations.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the December 2023 rebalance.
This includes a couple of intra-review index changes that could be triggered by the Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) and Chr Hansen Holding A/S (CHR DC) takeover situations.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: Novartis-Sandoz, Dechra, CHR, and Others

<ul>
<li>The March 2022 constituent changes for the STOXX Europe 600 and the EURO STOXX Indices were announced on 1st March 2022. </li>
<li>The Index Changes will be implemented (Inclusion Event) at the close of 18th March 2022 (Friday) and the changes will be effective from 21st March 2022 (Monday). </li>
<li>So far, the LONG-SHORT baskets suggested by Quiddity have done extremely well. Below are my thoughts for the remainder of the timeline.</li>
</ul>


The March 2022 constituent changes for the STOXX Europe 600 and the EURO STOXX Indices were announced on 1st March 2022. 
The Index Changes will be implemented (Inclusion Event) at the close of 18th March 2022 (Friday) and the changes will be effective from 21st March 2022 (Monday). 
So far, the LONG-SHORT baskets suggested by Quiddity have done extremely well. Below are my thoughts for the remainder of the timeline.


STOXX Europe Indices: March 2022 Rebalance Trade So Far So Good. What Next?

<ul>
<li>The European Benchmark Indices (BMI) of the STOXX family are reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December. The March 2022 constituent changes were announced yesterday.</li>
<li>In this insight, we mainly focus on the constituent changes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and the EURO STOXX Index.</li>
<li>In addition, we also take a look at the timeline, expected Inclusion/Exclusion Parameters for these candidates, historical performance of past rebalance events, and a potential trading strategy for March 2022.</li>
</ul>


The European Benchmark Indices (BMI) of the STOXX family are reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December. The March 2022 constituent changes were announced yesterday.
In this insight, we mainly focus on the constituent changes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and the EURO STOXX Index.
In addition, we also take a look at the timeline, expected Inclusion/Exclusion Parameters for these candidates, historical performance of past rebalance events, and a potential trading strategy for March 2022.


STOXX Europe Indices: Constituent Changes and Trading Strategy March 2022

United Kingdom

OSB Group PLC operates as a bank. The Company offers commercial mortgages, asset finance, and retail savings, as well as loans to non-bank finance companies secured against portfolios of financial assets, principally mortgages, and leases. OSB Group serves clients in the United Kingdom.

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OSB Group (OSB LN)

Monday Delight: 14/04/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

Nationwide/Virgin Money (VUK AU): At The Pointy End Of The Offer

Done deal. Trading tight at a 1.8%, 1.9% gross spread for the UK, Aussie legs, assuming mid-Nov completion. If in, stay in. Or get involved on...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: Novartis-Sandoz, Dechra, CHR, and Others

I currently see six regular ADDs/DELs for the SE600 index in December 2023. Apart from that the Dechra and CHR deals could trigger two more intra...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STOXX Europe Indices: March 2022 Rebalance Trade So Far So Good. What Next?

The LONG-SHORT Trades for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices March 2022 Rebalance has performed well so far. Below is a discussion on my...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STOXX Europe Indices: Constituent Changes and Trading Strategy March 2022

STOXX Europe 600 announced 9 Adds and 9 Deletes for March 2022. Here is a closer look at the constituency changes and potential trading strategies...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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