Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> upcoming deletion in April 2023 could cause a couple of intra-review replacements.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be one more change in the ASX 200 index in the June 2023 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.

OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) upcoming deletion in April 2023 could cause a couple of intra-review replacements.
Separately, there could be one more change in the ASX 200 index in the June 2023 review.


Quiddity Leaderboard-​​​​​​​​​​​ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Wyloo has launched an unconditional off-market takeover bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a> at A$1.40 per share, a 34.6% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer opens 5 April.</li>
<li>In certain aspects the offer is attractive. The offer values Mincor at a premium to peer and precedent transaction EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples.</li>
<li>However, the offer is at a discount to recent share prices and price targets. Rival bidders (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a>) could also emerge. </li>
</ul>


Wyloo has launched an unconditional off-market takeover bid for Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU) at A$1.40 per share, a 34.6% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer opens 5 April.
In certain aspects the offer is attractive. The offer values Mincor at a premium to peer and precedent transaction EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples.
However, the offer is at a discount to recent share prices and price targets. Rival bidders (BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) or IGO Ltd (IGO AU)) could also emerge. 


Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Wyloo’s A$1.40 Unconditional Takeover Offer

Equity Capital Markets

Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-trimegah-bangun-persada-tbk-harita-nickel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36826:1" rel="noopener">PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ)</a>, an Indonesian nickel play, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$1 billion. Book building ends on 24 March.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/harita-nickel-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97906" rel="noopener">Harita Nickel IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on weakening market sentiment, high single customer dependence, gross margin pressure, high cash burn, rising cash collection cycle and deteriorating cash conversion.</li>
</ul>



PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ), an Indonesian nickel play, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$1 billion. Book building ends on 24 March.
In Harita Nickel IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on weakening market sentiment, high single customer dependence, gross margin pressure, high cash burn, rising cash collection cycle and deteriorating cash conversion.


<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-trading-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13087:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)</a>, Nissin Electric.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 21Vianet Group (VNET US), 111 Inc (YI US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK). 
Lowest spreads - Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU),Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP), Nissin Electric.


Merger Arb Mondays (20 Mar) - Toshiba, AAG Energy, Tyro, Newcrest, InvoCare, Pushpay, Golden Energy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s delisting Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s delisting Offer for Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB).
Key updates took place for AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Halcyon Agri (HACL SP), and S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Oishi, AAG, Pushpay, GK Goh, Halcyon Agri, S.M.Entertainment

Australia

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

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OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard-ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) or Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ) could replace OZL in ASX 100 and Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) or Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Wyloo’s A$1.40 Unconditional Takeover Offer

The offer is light compared to recent share prices and analyst price targets. Expect the Board to reject. The offer could also draw out rival bidders.

Arun George

Harita Nickel IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on weakening market sentiment, high single-customer dependence, gross margin pressure, high cash burn and...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Mar) - Toshiba, AAG Energy, Tyro, Newcrest, InvoCare, Pushpay, Golden Energy

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (153%), 111 (35.1%), Alliance Aviation (34.2%), Genesis (24.0%), Newcrest (12.9%), AAG Energy...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Oishi, AAG, Pushpay, GK Goh, Halcyon Agri, S.M.Entertainment

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard-​​​​​​​​​​​ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) or Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ) could replace OZL in ASX 100 and Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) or Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Wyloo’s A$1.40 Unconditional Takeover Offer

The offer is light compared to recent share prices and analyst price targets. Expect the Board to reject. The offer could also draw out rival bidders.

Arun George

Harita Nickel IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on weakening market sentiment, high single-customer dependence, gross margin pressure, high cash burn and...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Mar) - Toshiba, AAG Energy, Tyro, Newcrest, InvoCare, Pushpay, Golden Energy

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (153%), 111 (35.1%), Alliance Aviation (34.2%), Genesis (24.0%), Newcrest (12.9%), AAG Energy...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Oishi, AAG, Pushpay, GK Goh, Halcyon Agri, S.M.Entertainment

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard-ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes