Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You <em>might</em> have to go all the back to <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a></strong>'s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.</li>
<li>Otherwise, it's slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a></strong>
</li>
<li>IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they <em>appear</em> to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don't understand why they would want to block.</li>
</ul>


You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)'s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
Otherwise, it's slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)

IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don't understand why they would want to block.


Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

<ul>
<li>Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks. </li>
<li>Both <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a></strong> spectacularly failed back in May.</li>
<li>Now <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dickson-concepts-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5052:1" rel="noopener">Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)</a></strong> has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.</li>
</ul>


Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks. 
Both Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) and Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) spectacularly failed back in May.
Now Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.


Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

<ul>
<li>After <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion (533 HK)</a></strong>'s spectacular Scheme fail, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill  (878 HK)</a></strong> appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.</li>
<li>Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill's Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.</li>
<li>Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. </li>
</ul>


After Goldlion (533 HK)'s spectacular Scheme fail, Soundwill  (878 HK) appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.
Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill's Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.
Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. 


Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a></strong>'s FY22 revenue, EBITDA, and profit increased by 2%, 6%, and 11% to HK$36.1bn,  HK$12.4bn, and HK$834mn.</li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a></strong>'s revenue, EBITDA, and profit increased by 0.5%, 3%, and 0.4% to HK$34.1bn,  HK$13.1bn, and HK$4.7mn.</li>
<li>The dividend pass-through is 100%. PCCW's current discount to NAV is in line with its 52-week average.</li>
</ul>



PCCW Ltd (8 HK)'s FY22 revenue, EBITDA, and profit increased by 2%, 6%, and 11% to HK$36.1bn,  HK$12.4bn, and HK$834mn.

HKT Ltd (6823 HK)'s revenue, EBITDA, and profit increased by 0.5%, 3%, and 0.4% to HK$34.1bn,  HK$13.1bn, and HK$4.7mn.
The dividend pass-through is 100%. PCCW's current discount to NAV is in line with its 52-week average.


Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
<p>In StubWorld this week ...</p>
</div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0726/2021072600409.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">enters into an SPA</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digitalbridge-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20231:1" rel="noopener">DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US)</a> to sell its Hong Kong and Malaysian data center businesses for US$750mn. </p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on PCCW are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


In StubWorld this week ...



PCCW Ltd (8 HK) enters into an SPA with DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US) to sell its Hong Kong and Malaysian data center businesses for US$750mn. 



Preceding my comments on PCCW are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


Hong Kong

Pacific Century Premium Developments Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and manages property and infrastructure projects, and owns a portfolio of premium-grade buildings.

Pacific Century Premium Developments (432 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Pacific Century Premium Developments (432 HK)

Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

PE and/or a VC outfit blocking deals are rare. Which may suggest LVC doesn't want that moniker. You could therefore, extrapolate that line of...

David Blennerhassett

Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

This is a consistently profitable company. The undisturbed price was $4.78. Yet the HSI is up ~12.8% since the Offer was announced, so perhaps...

David Blennerhassett

Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

The outcome for Soundwill was not a big surprise. However, expect current and future illiquid small-cap arbs to trade wide(r) if there is a whiff...

David Blennerhassett

PCCW And HKT's 2022 Results

Ideally, I would prefer to be aligned with Richard Li - and therefore be Long PCCW, short HKT here. However, right this moment, the discount to...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: The Trimming Of PCCW

One of two events are likely hereon- either HKT is taken over - not by PCCW - but by a PRC telecommunication company such as China United Network;...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)