New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>There were few surprises in Pacific Edge's (PEB) FY23 result — both costs and revenue were in-line with our expectations.</li><li>Looking ahead, the revenue trajectory debate will continue for some time but the key deviation relative to our expectations was commentary on ongoing cost investment.</li><li>With tests per clinician in the US flat for the past 12 quarters, we are supportive of the investment strategy but now expect the timeline to breakeven to be longer than previously forecast.</li></ul>

There were few surprises in Pacific Edge's (PEB) FY23 result — both costs and revenue were in-line with our expectations.Looking ahead, the revenue trajectory debate will continue for some time but the key deviation relative to our expectations was commentary on ongoing cost investment.With tests per clinician in the US flat for the past 12 quarters, we are supportive of the investment strategy but now expect the timeline to breakeven to be longer than previously forecast.

Pacific Edge: FY23 Result — Stuck in the Waiting Room

<ul><li>Pacific Edge (PEB) reported an FY23 result in-line with our expectations.</li><li>Lab throughput was pre-released so there were minimal revenue surprises; operating revenue of NZ$19.6m was broadly in-line with our NZ$20.1m forecast, and opex of ~NZ$53m was also broadly in-line with our expectations.</li><li>We view this as a solid result for PEB as it continues to improve adoption, aided by its recent cost investment.</li></ul>

Pacific Edge (PEB) reported an FY23 result in-line with our expectations.Lab throughput was pre-released so there were minimal revenue surprises; operating revenue of NZ$19.6m was broadly in-line with our NZ$20.1m forecast, and opex of ~NZ$53m was also broadly in-line with our expectations.We view this as a solid result for PEB as it continues to improve adoption, aided by its recent cost investment.

Pacific Edge (PEB): FY23 Result – Initial Impressions

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gentrack-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2752:1" rel="noopener">Gentrack (GTK NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorchester-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1854:1" rel="noopener">Turners Automotive (TRA NZ)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synlait-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16298:1" rel="noopener">Synlait Milk (SML NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-edge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Edge (PEB NZ)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.</li>
<li>The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.</li>
</ul>



Gentrack (GTK NZ) and Turners Automotive (TRA NZ) will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while Synlait Milk (SML NZ) and Pacific Edge (PEB NZ) will be deleted.
There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.
The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.


S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

<ul><li>Pacific Edge’s (PEB) 4Q23 test volumes highlight ongoing solid momentum with +42% year on year growth. Sequential growth was +14% with Q4 typically seasonally strong post insurance resets.</li><li>e are comfortable with current market expectations (FY23 revenue of NZ$21.3m) but will look for more colour through the day.</li><li>While in-line with expectations, US test volumes per clinician continue to be flat.</li></ul>

Pacific Edge’s (PEB) 4Q23 test volumes highlight ongoing solid momentum with +42% year on year growth. Sequential growth was +14% with Q4 typically seasonally strong post insurance resets.e are comfortable with current market expectations (FY23 revenue of NZ$21.3m) but will look for more colour through the day.While in-line with expectations, US test volumes per clinician continue to be flat.

Pacific Edge (PEB): 4Q23 Update – Solid Momentum but LCD Uncertainty Remains

New Zealand

Pacific Edge Ltd is a biomedical company specialising in the discovery and commercialisation of diagnostic and prognostic technology for the early detection and monitoring of cancer. The Company has completed successful trials in bladder cancer detection and colorectal cancer prognosis.

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Pacific Edge (PEB NZ)

Pacific Edge: FY23 Result — Stuck in the Waiting Room

PEB's operating result was in-line with our expectations; However, looking ahead, we previously expected the rate of incremental cost growth to...

Forsyth Barr

Pacific Edge (PEB): FY23 Result – Initial Impressions

Pacific Edge (PEB) reported an FY23 result in-line with our expectations; Lab throughput was pre-released so there were minimal revenue surprises;...

Forsyth Barr

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

As expected, Gentrack and Turners Auto will replace Synlait Milk and Pacific Edge in the NZX50 Index. The adds have jumped recently and there...

Brian Freitas

Pacific Edge (PEB): 4Q23 Update – Solid Momentum but LCD Uncertainty Remains

Pacific Edge’s (PEB) 4Q23 test volumes highlight ongoing solid momentum with +42% year on year growth. Sequential growth was +14% with Q4 typically...

Forsyth Barr

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