US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mondi-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22048:1" rel="noopener">Mondi PLC (MNDI LN)</a> is near the exit threshold of Top 40, resulting in a potential deletion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-african-resources-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23518:1" rel="noopener">Pan African Resources (PAF LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tiger-brands-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24843:1" rel="noopener">Tiger Brands (TBS SJ)</a> are the main candidates to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mondi-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22048:1" rel="noopener">Mondi PLC (MNDI LN)</a> in Top 40.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/impala-platinum-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25124:1" rel="noopener">Impala Platinum Holdings (IMP SJ)</a> is expected to migrate from MidCap to LargeCap following its price surge of 40% over the last 3 months.</li>
</ul>



Mondi PLC (MNDI LN) is near the exit threshold of Top 40, resulting in a potential deletion.

Pan African Resources (PAF LN) and Tiger Brands (TBS SJ) are the main candidates to replace Mondi PLC (MNDI LN) in Top 40.

Impala Platinum Holdings (IMP SJ) is expected to migrate from MidCap to LargeCap following its price surge of 40% over the last 3 months.


South Africa/JSE Index Forecast - Mar26: Maybe 1 Addition, 1 Deletion in Top 40

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan African’s EPS for H126 were 2.7% ahead of our prior forecasts on a headline basis and 27.0% ahead on a normalised basis (see Exhibit 2). Management reiterated guidance for FY26 at 275–292koz, albeit at a slightly higher AISC of US$1,820–1,870/oz at ZAR17.00/US$ (cf US$1,525–1,575/oz at ZAR18.50/US$ previously). It also declared a maiden interim dividend of ZAR0.12/share. As a result, we have raised our normalised HEPS forecast for FY26 by 11.6%, although we have lowered our FY27 estimate to reflect broadly static production in that year and higher capital expenditure.

Pan African’s EPS for H126 were 2.7% ahead of our prior forecasts on a headline basis and 27.0% ahead on a normalised basis (see Exhibit 2). Management reiterated guidance for FY26 at 275–292koz, albeit at a slightly higher AISC of US$1,820–1,870/oz at ZAR17.00/US$ (cf US$1,525–1,575/oz at ZAR18.50/US$ previously). It also declared a maiden interim dividend of ZAR0.12/share. As a result, we have raised our normalised HEPS forecast for FY26 by 11.6%, although we have lowered our FY27 estimate to reflect broadly static production in that year and higher capital expenditure.

Pan African Resources — Up 17 times in 15 years

Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) interim production update for H126 revealed a 51% increase in gold production to 128.3koz (with a further c 19%, or 24.9koz, increase anticipated in H226 – see Exhibit 1), a 67% reduction in net debt to US$49.9m and a proposed (maiden) interim dividend of ZAR0.12 per share. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) of US$1,825–1,875/oz in H126 were above erstwhile guidance of US$1,525–1,575/oz for FY26. However, much of the increase could be attributed to the appreciation of the rand against the US dollar from the ZAR18.50/US$ rate originally assumed to ZAR17.37/US$ during H126 and ZAR16.0266/US$ currently. With the continuing strength in the gold price, we have upgraded both our FY26 EPS forecast (see Exhibit 4) and our valuation materially.

Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) interim production update for H126 revealed a 51% increase in gold production to 128.3koz (with a further c 19%, or 24.9koz, increase anticipated in H226 – see Exhibit 1), a 67% reduction in net debt to US$49.9m and a proposed (maiden) interim dividend of ZAR0.12 per share. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) of US$1,825–1,875/oz in H126 were above erstwhile guidance of US$1,525–1,575/oz for FY26. However, much of the increase could be attributed to the appreciation of the rand against the US dollar from the ZAR18.50/US$ rate originally assumed to ZAR17.37/US$ during H126 and ZAR16.0266/US$ currently. With the continuing strength in the gold price, we have upgraded both our FY26 EPS forecast (see Exhibit 4) and our valuation materially.

Pan African Resources — EPS and valuation upgrades

On 27 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that it had completed two studies on its Soweto tailings storage facilities near the MTR/Mogale plant, namely a 1Mtpm standalone carbon-in-leach plant, for which a definitive feasibility study (DFS) was completed, and a 600ktpm expansion circuit to be added to the existing MTR/Mogale operation, for which a pre-feasibility study (PFS) was completed. Of the two, the 600ktpm option is favoured and has therefore progressed to DFS level, expected to be completed in June. In the meantime, the PFS posits annual gold production of c 30–35koz for 15 years at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$1,000–1,200/oz. At a gold price of US$2,800/oz, this generates a post-tax net present value (NPV13.3) of US$129.7m (6.4 US cents per share). At a gold price of US$3,500/oz, it generates one of US$235.4m (11.6c/share). In the near term, PAF should also benefit from its main market listing on the LSE from the end of October and its confirmed inclusion into the UK 250 from 22 December.

On 27 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that it had completed two studies on its Soweto tailings storage facilities near the MTR/Mogale plant, namely a 1Mtpm standalone carbon-in-leach plant, for which a definitive feasibility study (DFS) was completed, and a 600ktpm expansion circuit to be added to the existing MTR/Mogale operation, for which a pre-feasibility study (PFS) was completed. Of the two, the 600ktpm option is favoured and has therefore progressed to DFS level, expected to be completed in June. In the meantime, the PFS posits annual gold production of c 30–35koz for 15 years at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$1,000–1,200/oz. At a gold price of US$2,800/oz, this generates a post-tax net present value (NPV13.3) of US$129.7m (6.4 US cents per share). At a gold price of US$3,500/oz, it generates one of US$235.4m (11.6c/share). In the near term, PAF should also benefit from its main market listing on the LSE from the end of October and its confirmed inclusion into the UK 250 from 22 December.

Pan African Resources — Bringing Soweto to the fore

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul><li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li><li>The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the close of 2nd December 2025 and announced after the close of 3rd December 2025.</li><li>Based on the current numbers, we see one change for the F100 index and four changes for the F250 index in December 2025.</li></ul>

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the close of 2nd December 2025 and announced after the close of 3rd December 2025.Based on the current numbers, we see one change for the F100 index and four changes for the F250 index in December 2025.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: One F100 ADD, Four F250 ADDs Likely; One Day to Base Date

South Africa

Pan African Resources is a mid-tier gold producer with a portfolio of high-grade, long-life underground mines and low-cost surface remining projects. The company's primary activities include the mining, extraction, and sale of gold, with operations in South Africa and Australia, including projects for copper and cobalt deposits. It was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.

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Pan African Resources (PAF LN)

South Africa/JSE Index Forecast - Mar26: Maybe 1 Addition, 1 Deletion in Top 40

Mondi plc (MNP SJ) will be deleted from the Top 40 and Pan African Resources (PAN SJ) will be added as the replacement. Forecasted passive fund...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Pan African Resources — Up 17 times in 15 years

Pan African’s EPS for H126 were 2.7% ahead of our prior forecasts on a headline basis and 27.0% ahead on a normalised basis (see Exhibit 2)....

Edison Investment Research

Pan African Resources — EPS and valuation upgrades

Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) interim production update for H126 revealed a 51% increase in gold production to 128.3koz (with a further c 19%, or...

Edison Investment Research

Pan African Resources — Bringing Soweto to the fore

On 27 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that it had completed two studies on its Soweto tailings storage facilities near the...

Edison Investment Research

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: One F100 ADD, Four F250 ADDs Likely; One Day to Base Date

We achieved 100% hit rate for the F100/250 Dec25 index review. The results were confirmed publicly after market close yesterday. I have summarized...

Afridi Reyal

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