Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered a strong operating finish to 2025, with attributable Q4 silver production of 7.3Moz beating both our estimate and full-year guidance. The year-end cash and short-term investments jumped to US$1.3bn and we expect a dividend of up to US$0.18 pershare in Q4. For 2026, PAAS is leveraging record metal prices to invest more into projects; while this raises AISC and capex guidance, it better positions the company for when commodity prices start to normalise. We have upgraded our financial estimates and valuation. Beyond commodity tailwinds, we continue to view the upcoming Skarn PEA as a key share price catalyst.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered a strong operating finish to 2025, with attributable Q4 silver production of 7.3Moz beating both our estimate and full-year guidance. The year-end cash and short-term investments jumped to US$1.3bn and we expect a dividend of up to US$0.18 pershare in Q4. For 2026, PAAS is leveraging record metal prices to invest more into projects; while this raises AISC and capex guidance, it better positions the company for when commodity prices start to normalise. We have upgraded our financial estimates and valuation. Beyond commodity tailwinds, we continue to view the upcoming Skarn PEA as a key share price catalyst.

Pan American Silver — Strong Q4 finish and 2026 outlook

Pan American Silver (PAAS) announced that it had completed an equity investment in Galleon Gold for C$11.25m, representing a 14.7% interest in the company. Earlier, PAAS provided convertible debt to Galleon for C$8.0m. Together with warrants, the equity investment and debt represent a 29.7% share in Galleon’s capital on a fully diluted basis. PAAS views this acquisition as a long-term investment. Given the current small size of the investment for PAAS, we make no changes to our estimates and maintain our valuation at US$44/share ahead of the FY26 guidance in January and the Skarn PEA due in Q226.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) announced that it had completed an equity investment in Galleon Gold for C$11.25m, representing a 14.7% interest in the company. Earlier, PAAS provided convertible debt to Galleon for C$8.0m. Together with warrants, the equity investment and debt represent a 29.7% share in Galleon’s capital on a fully diluted basis. PAAS views this acquisition as a long-term investment. Given the current small size of the investment for PAAS, we make no changes to our estimates and maintain our valuation at US$44/share ahead of the FY26 guidance in January and the Skarn PEA due in Q226.

Pan American Silver — Investment in Galleon Gold

Pan American Silver’s Q325 results saw the initial 27-day contribution from the recently acquired 44% interest in the Juanicipio project, which boosted its attributable silver production by c 10% and lowered the silver segment all-in sustaining cost (AISC) to an impressive US$15.4/oz. EBITDA adjusted for equity investment in the project was up 51% y-o-y and 11% q-o-q. We have upgraded our estimates on higher commodity prices and Juanicipio, raising our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation of PAAS from US$38.0/share to US$43.5/share. The company is also evaluating a two-stage development approach for Skarn to maximise the value of the combined deposit, which, in our view, is not yet full priced in by the market.

Pan American Silver’s Q325 results saw the initial 27-day contribution from the recently acquired 44% interest in the Juanicipio project, which boosted its attributable silver production by c 10% and lowered the silver segment all-in sustaining cost (AISC) to an impressive US$15.4/oz. EBITDA adjusted for equity investment in the project was up 51% y-o-y and 11% q-o-q. We have upgraded our estimates on higher commodity prices and Juanicipio, raising our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation of PAAS from US$38.0/share to US$43.5/share. The company is also evaluating a two-stage development approach for Skarn to maximise the value of the combined deposit, which, in our view, is not yet full priced in by the market.

Pan American Silver — First contribution from Juanicipio

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$186mm for December 2025 due to capping/re-capping.</li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$186mm for December 2025 due to capping/re-capping.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec25 Rebal: Capping Flow Expectations Limited

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

United States

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

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Pan American Silver (PAAS US)

Pan American Silver — Strong Q4 finish and 2026 outlook

Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered a strong operating finish to 2025, with attributable Q4 silver production of 7.3Moz beating both our estimate...

Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver — Investment in Galleon Gold

Pan American Silver (PAAS) announced that it had completed an equity investment in Galleon Gold for C$11.25m, representing a 14.7% interest in the...

Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver — First contribution from Juanicipio

Pan American Silver’s Q325 results saw the initial 27-day contribution from the recently acquired 44% interest in the Juanicipio project, which...

Edison Investment Research

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec25 Rebal: Capping Flow Expectations Limited

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index gets a rebal but not a review in December so flows are limited to capping and recapping. So far not significant....

Travis Lundy

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

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