Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).</li>
</ul>


Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.
We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.
We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).


Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has released its annual mineral reserves and resources statement. While the overall reserves and resources have fallen compared to 2023 due to the asset divestments, on an adjusted basis the company has fully replaced its proven and probable (P&P) reserves and reported a significant increase in measured and indicated (M&I) resources in the silver segment. The gold segment has seen a visible boost to its inferred resource due to exploration work at Jacobina, which has also seen a healthy increase in its P&P reserves despite maintaining flat M&I resources over the year. Overall, six out of 11 producing operations, including flagship Jacobina and La Colorada, have seen their mineral reserves either fully or almost fully replaced in tonnage terms during the year to June 2024.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has released its annual mineral reserves and resources statement. While the overall reserves and resources have fallen compared to 2023 due to the asset divestments, on an adjusted basis the company has fully replaced its proven and probable (P&P) reserves and reported a significant increase in measured and indicated (M&I) resources in the silver segment. The gold segment has seen a visible boost to its inferred resource due to exploration work at Jacobina, which has also seen a healthy increase in its P&P reserves despite maintaining flat M&I resources over the year. Overall, six out of 11 producing operations, including flagship Jacobina and La Colorada, have seen their mineral reserves either fully or almost fully replaced in tonnage terms during the year to June 2024.

Pan American Silver - Strong reserves replacement rates for key assets

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September. Plus there are capping and float changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 11.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn. There are 16 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b2gold-corp-fee72de9-9219-4f08-9e4a-eff9db71e070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33420:1" rel="noopener">B2Gold Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25399:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a> while the largest outflows are from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cia-de-minas-buenaventura-saa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27674:1" rel="noopener">Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. Plus there are capping and float changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 11.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn. There are 16 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The largest inflows are expected in B2Gold Corp, Evolution Mining and Pan American Silver while the largest outflows are from Kinross Gold and Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered a robust set of Q224 results, with lower silver production offset by the stronger sales and commodity prices. This was coupled with good cost control in the gold segment and resulted in a 65% increase in mine operating earnings and 31% growth in EBITDA. Strong cash flow generation was the main highlight of the results, with free cash flow exceeding that of the whole of FY23. PAAS expects production to be more heavily weighted to Q4 and silver output to be towards the lower end of guidance. We have reduced our FY24e EBITDA by 3.6% but our valuation remains virtually unchanged at US$23.5 per share due to a slightly lower weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered a robust set of Q224 results, with lower silver production offset by the stronger sales and commodity prices. This was coupled with good cost control in the gold segment and resulted in a 65% increase in mine operating earnings and 31% growth in EBITDA. Strong cash flow generation was the main highlight of the results, with free cash flow exceeding that of the whole of FY23. PAAS expects production to be more heavily weighted to Q4 and silver output to be towards the lower end of guidance. We have reduced our FY24e EBITDA by 3.6% but our valuation remains virtually unchanged at US$23.5 per share due to a slightly lower weighted average cost of capital (WACC). 

Pan American Silver - Q224 results: Steady progress

Pan American Silver (PAAS) recently held an investor day focusing on strategy, key projects, exploration, ESG and capital allocation. In this note we summarise key takeaways from the event. Our valuation and financial estimates remain unchanged ahead of the Q224 results in August.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) recently held an investor day focusing on strategy, key projects, exploration, ESG and capital allocation. In this note we summarise key takeaways from the event. Our valuation and financial estimates remain unchanged ahead of the Q224 results in August.

Pan American Silver - Investor day takeaways

United States

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

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Pan American Silver (PAAS US)

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Vermilion Research

Pan American Silver - Strong reserves replacement rates for key assets

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has released its annual mineral reserves and resources statement. While the overall reserves and resources have fallen...

Edison Investment Research

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

2 adds and 3 deletes result in a 1-way turnover of 11.4% and a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn for the GDXJ. Kinross Gold is the big sell while...

Brian Freitas

Pan American Silver - Q224 results: Steady progress

Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered a robust set of Q224 results, with lower silver production offset by the stronger sales and commodity prices....

Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver - Investor day takeaways

Pan American Silver (PAAS) recently held an investor day focusing on strategy, key projects, exploration, ESG and capital allocation. In this note...

Edison Investment Research

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