Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our updated capping flow expectations for the June 2026 rebalance.</li>
<li>We also present our index change expectations for the <em>next</em> semiannual index review, which will take place in September 2026.</li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally.
In this insight, we take a look at our updated capping flow expectations for the June 2026 rebalance.
We also present our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review, which will take place in September 2026.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Jun26/Sep26: Capping Flows and Index Changes

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 4 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. Plus a whole bunch of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$5.1bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp-ce7d7ca6-59e0-44f1-958f-e5b679750b06" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25937:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11226:1" rel="noopener">Royal Gold</a> are deletions from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatland-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47602:1" rel="noopener">Greatland Resources (GGP AU)</a> is an inclusion to the ASX100 Index.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. Plus a whole bunch of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$5.1bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Pan American Silver and Royal Gold are deletions from the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF while Greatland Resources (GGP AU) is an inclusion to the ASX100 Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 4 Adds and US$5.1bn Trade

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small/medium-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be 27 ADDs and 3 DELs for the March 2026 rebal. We had predicted 12 ADDs (10 were right) and 1 DEL (it was right). A HUGE tail.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$1.98bn for the March 2026 rebal on 20 March 2026 at the close. </li>
</ul>


The MV Global Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small/medium-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be 27 ADDs and 3 DELs for the March 2026 rebal. We had predicted 12 ADDs (10 were right) and 1 DEL (it was right). A HUGE tail.
We expect a one-way flow of US$1.98bn for the March 2026 rebal on 20 March 2026 at the close. 


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Results: 27 ADDs and 3 DELs; US$2bn One-Way

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will use the close from 11 March to cap the stocks. The constituent changes will be based off the close on 27 February.</li>
<li>If there are 6 inclusions to the index, the estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is US$5.7bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources</a> and Greatland Resources are adds to the ASX100 Index and there will be increased flow and impact if they are added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a>.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will use the close from 11 March to cap the stocks. The constituent changes will be based off the close on 27 February.
If there are 6 inclusions to the index, the estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is US$5.7bn.

Regis Resources and Greatland Resources are adds to the ASX100 Index and there will be increased flow and impact if they are added to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: Capping Finalised; Announcement on Friday

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 6 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are some big capping changes too.</li>
<li>With float estimated at less than 10%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s wait for index inclusion continues. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd-434088e3-4626-4b0b-a6ec-acfc202c86d8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28563:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI US)</a> currently moves from Large Weight to Small Weight.</li>
<li>The capping changes and the 6 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 8.5% and a round-trip trade of US$6.7bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 6 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are some big capping changes too.
With float estimated at less than 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s wait for index inclusion continues. Gold Fields (GFI US) currently moves from Large Weight to Small Weight.
The capping changes and the 6 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 8.5% and a round-trip trade of US$6.7bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds & US$6.7bn Trade

Canada

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

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Pan American Silver (PAAS CN)

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Jun26/Sep26: Capping Flows and Index Changes

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index is more important than people know. It covers an important niche, and overlaps with others. The June rebal is 2.2%...

Travis Lundy

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 4 Adds and US$5.1bn Trade

The index rebalances at the close today. With gold trading lower since rebalance announcement and another big down move overnight (though off the...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Results: 27 ADDs and 3 DELs; US$2bn One-Way

The bottom end of the MV Junior Gold Index has now admitted far more names than we expected. That meant two more get kicked out of the top end....

Travis Lundy

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: Capping Finalised; Announcement on Friday

There could be 6 adds resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.8% and a round-trip trade of US$5.7bn. There will be capping inflows to the...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds & US$6.7bn Trade

There could be 6 adds and big capping changes for the GDX in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.5% and round-trip trade is US$6.7bn. Some of...

Brian Freitas

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