Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

<ul>
<li>Having lost out to Trial in acquiring Seiyu, PPI’s new president last month announced an aggressive new strategy. </li>
<li>PPI will hugely expand through a roll out of a completely new chain of up to 300 supermarkets and the addition of 250 more Don Quijote stores.</li>
<li>Don Quijote continues to outperform thanks to strong support from both locals looking for cheaper essentials and inbound tourists, as well as improving performance abroad.</li>
</ul>


Having lost out to Trial in acquiring Seiyu, PPI’s new president last month announced an aggressive new strategy. 
PPI will hugely expand through a roll out of a completely new chain of up to 300 supermarkets and the addition of 250 more Don Quijote stores.
Don Quijote continues to outperform thanks to strong support from both locals looking for cheaper essentials and inbound tourists, as well as improving performance abroad.


Donki's PPI Aims for Market Leadership with 550 More Stores

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. </li>
<li>Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.</li>
<li>There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It's worth a look.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. 
Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It's worth a look.


SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

<ul>
<li>Aeon’s My Basket chain of mini-supermarkets in central Tokyo is close to outperforming Seven Eleven on the key KPI of daily sales per store.</li>
<li>And, by paying higher wages, it isn’t even struggling to find staff unlike many convenience store franchisees.</li>
<li>However, it is now well covered in central Tokyo areas so the big question is how it will work out a way to make the format work in residential areas.</li>
</ul>


Aeon’s My Basket chain of mini-supermarkets in central Tokyo is close to outperforming Seven Eleven on the key KPI of daily sales per store.
And, by paying higher wages, it isn’t even struggling to find staff unlike many convenience store franchisees.
However, it is now well covered in central Tokyo areas so the big question is how it will work out a way to make the format work in residential areas.


Aeon's My Basket: Beating Convenience Stores

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Price Gauge
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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Donki's PPI Aims for Market Leadership with 550 More Stores

PPI's aggressive new strategy includes expanding with 300 new supermarkets and 250 more Don Quijote stores after losing out on acquiring Seiyu.

Michael Causton

SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

SHIFT has gone through earnings, surprised to the upside, and is up 10% since when I wrote. The 15:1 stock split which a) makes the Nikkei 225...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Aeon's My Basket: Beating Convenience Stores

Aeon's My Basket is winning hearts and wallets in Tokyo, taking away business from nearby convenience stores through more fresh food and lower...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Donki's PPI Aims for Market Leadership with 550 More Stores

​PPI's aggressive new strategy includes expanding with 300 new supermarkets and 250 more Don Quijote stores after losing out on acquiring Seiyu.

Michael Causton

SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

SHIFT has gone through earnings, surprised to the upside, and is up 10% since when I wrote. The 15:1 stock split which a) makes the Nikkei 225...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Aeon's My Basket: Beating Convenience Stores

Aeon's My Basket is winning hearts and wallets in Tokyo, taking away business from nearby convenience stores through more fresh food and lower...

Michael Causton

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

PPI's aggressive new strategy includes expanding with 300 new supermarkets and 250 more Don Quijote stores after losing out on acquiring Seiyu.