Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation. </li>
<li>Discounters, drugstores and e-commerce outperformed the market overall, while general merchandise stores and apparel/lifestyle declined.</li>
<li>Profitability varied significantly, but discounters stood out as consumers flocked to their stores to escape inflation where they could.</li>
</ul>


FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation. 
Discounters, drugstores and e-commerce outperformed the market overall, while general merchandise stores and apparel/lifestyle declined.
Profitability varied significantly, but discounters stood out as consumers flocked to their stores to escape inflation where they could.


Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. </li>
<li>Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.</li>
<li>There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It's worth a look.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. 
Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It's worth a look.


SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A lot has been said and written about Trial's IPO but much of this relates to pass performance and comparing it to supermarkets.</li>
<li>As the company's latest Trial Go store in Fukuoka shows,  Trial is a tech-based retailer and a true discounter, and discounting is where the growth is in Japanese FMCG.</li>
<li>Trial thinks its technology can reduce costs significantly, improving margins while allowing it to roll out more small format stores to compete with convenience stores. It may be right.</li>
</ul>


A lot has been said and written about Trial's IPO but much of this relates to pass performance and comparing it to supermarkets.
As the company's latest Trial Go store in Fukuoka shows,  Trial is a tech-based retailer and a true discounter, and discounting is where the growth is in Japanese FMCG.
Trial thinks its technology can reduce costs significantly, improving margins while allowing it to roll out more small format stores to compete with convenience stores. It may be right.


Trial IPO to Drive Tech Innovation Targeting Convenience Stores

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

SHIFT has gone through earnings, surprised to the upside, and is up 10% since when I wrote. The 15:1 stock split which a) makes the Nikkei 225...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Trial IPO to Drive Tech Innovation Targeting Convenience Stores

Trial failed to complete an IPO and is now going again and the same fundamentals outlined in this insight apply today as it is a long-term viewpoint.

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: ​FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

SHIFT has gone through earnings, surprised to the upside, and is up 10% since when I wrote. The 15:1 stock split which a) makes the Nikkei 225...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Trial IPO to Drive Tech Innovation Targeting Convenience Stores

Trial failed to complete an IPO and is now going again and the same fundamentals outlined in this insight apply today as it is a long-term viewpoint.

Michael Causton

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...