'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/226/original/2019-06-13_16-47-07.png?1560412038" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90226"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/196/original/2019-06-13_11-15-27.png?1560392157" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90196"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-june-relative-price-scores-market-sectors-peer-groups-more-of-the-same" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30323">🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same</a>, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. <hr>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/202/original/2019-06-13_13-06-49.png?1560398835" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90202"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1">Alfresa (2784 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eiken-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12675:1">Eiken Chemical (4549 JP)</a>.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/201/original/2019-06-13_13-04-38.png?1560398780" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90201"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/203/original/2019-06-13_13-08-46.png?1560398945" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90203"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/204/original/2019-06-13_13-09-37.png?1560399049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90204"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/205/original/2019-06-13_13-12-01.png?1560399142" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90205"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/316/original/2019-06-15_19-45-47.png?1560595558" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90316"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k-o-energy-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17701:1">K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP)</a>.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/207/original/2019-06-13_13-14-03.png?1560399270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90207"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div><div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Goldwin (8111 JP) has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, 🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Descente (8114 JP), Alfresa (2784 JP), FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP), Kikkoman (2801 JP), Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP), and Eiken Chemical (4549 JP).  
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP).
Source: Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Bottom-Up

On Friday, the Nikkei reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a> to supply batteries for their EVs that are to be released in China as well as in other markets. The deal was made on the back of the company’s intention to accelerate its EV plan by 5 years. The Nikkei also reported that, apart from CATL, Toyota has also signed deals with China’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26048:1">BYD Co Ltd (002594 CH)</a>, and Japan’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gs-yuasa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8298:1">Gs Yuasa Corp (6674 JP)</a> for batteries. However, the highlight of the news was the companies MOU with CATL.
The information on the deal that was reported is as follows:
<ul>
<li>CATL will supply lithium-ion batteries for Toyota’s EVs that will be released in China as well as in other markets next year onwards</li>
<li>CATL and Toyota will collaborate on improving battery quality, adopting shared standards, and reusing batteries</li>
</ul>
In our opinion, this looks like a win-win situation for both Toyota and CATL provided the companies are able to meet their production targets. However, battery leader, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panasonic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a> seems to be placed in a rather competitive situation. Although we felt that Panasonic would be able to have a strong hold on Toyota via its JV with the latter and diversifying its customer base away from Tesla, this move may weaken Panasonic’s position somewhat. Our detailed view on the news is given below.

On Friday, the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with CATL (A) (300750 CH) to supply batteries for their EVs that are to be released in China as well as in other markets. The deal was made on the back of the company’s intention to accelerate its EV plan by 5 years. The Nikkei also reported that, apart from CATL, Toyota has also signed deals with China’s BYD Co Ltd (002594 CH), and Japan’s Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) and Gs Yuasa Corp (6674 JP) for batteries. However, the highlight of the news was the companies MOU with CATL.
The information on the deal that was reported is as follows:

CATL will supply lithium-ion batteries for Toyota’s EVs that will be released in China as well as in other markets next year onwards
CATL and Toyota will collaborate on improving battery quality, adopting shared standards, and reusing batteries

In our opinion, this looks like a win-win situation for both Toyota and CATL provided the companies are able to meet their production targets. However, battery leader, Panasonic Corp (6752 JP) seems to be placed in a rather competitive situation. Although we felt that Panasonic would be able to have a strong hold on Toyota via its JV with the latter and diversifying its customer base away from Tesla, this move may weaken Panasonic’s position somewhat. Our detailed view on the news is given below.

Toyota Sides with CATL to Accelerate Its EV Goals; Reliance on Panasonic Reduces

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This is our first monthly insight on EV batteries, which focuses mainly on Li-ion batteries, and their development. In this note we take a look at some of the strategic moves by the key players in the EV battery space (such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panasonic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1">Samsung Sdi (006400 KS)</a> during the previous month.
For the month of May 2019, the highlights seem to be:
<ul class="">
<li>Panasonic being all set to reform its overall business, with special efforts on diversifying and strengthening its customer base in the Battery Business segment. Despite such strategic moves, the company has continued to witness a steady decline in its share price indicating the declining market confidence in the company. Although the long-term growth picture looks attractive for the company, its business with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> (Tesla claims Panasonic’s insufficient battery capacity to be the key reason for their Model3 production constraints) could be considered the primary contributing factor to its currently weak position in the market.</li>
<li>
LG Chem and CATL jointly win multi-billion-dollar battery order from Volvo. However, approval for Chinese subsidies forces Hyundai to choose CATL for its all electric-Kona to be produced in China shifting away from its usual battery supplier- LG Chem.</li>
<li>
CATL continues to lead in terms of securing orders and expanding capacity. Despite leading the market successfully, the stock hasn’t enjoyed an upside during the month.</li>
<li>Volkswagen thinks Samsung SDI cannot deliver its increasing demand for batteries given the battery manufacturer’s limited capacity. Thus VW has split the order amongst a few leading battery manufacturers and hopes to build its own factory soon. Samsung SDI sees a further downtrend in share price following VW’s change in plans.</li>
<li>South Korean late comer SK Innovations becomes noteworthy for their aggressive investments in Capacity Expansion</li>
<li>
Stocks of these key battery players are on the downtrend. However, we feel that the decline in the share price of CATL and Panasonic could present an opportunity to buy the stocks for their long-term growth prospects.</li>
</ul>

This is our first monthly insight on EV batteries, which focuses mainly on Li-ion batteries, and their development. In this note we take a look at some of the strategic moves by the key players in the EV battery space (such as Panasonic Corp (6752 JP), CATL (A) (300750 CH), LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS), and Samsung Sdi (006400 KS) during the previous month.
For the month of May 2019, the highlights seem to be:

Panasonic being all set to reform its overall business, with special efforts on diversifying and strengthening its customer base in the Battery Business segment. Despite such strategic moves, the company has continued to witness a steady decline in its share price indicating the declining market confidence in the company. Although the long-term growth picture looks attractive for the company, its business with Tesla Motors (TSLA US) (Tesla claims Panasonic’s insufficient battery capacity to be the key reason for their Model3 production constraints) could be considered the primary contributing factor to its currently weak position in the market.

LG Chem and CATL jointly win multi-billion-dollar battery order from Volvo. However, approval for Chinese subsidies forces Hyundai to choose CATL for its all electric-Kona to be produced in China shifting away from its usual battery supplier- LG Chem.

CATL continues to lead in terms of securing orders and expanding capacity. Despite leading the market successfully, the stock hasn’t enjoyed an upside during the month.
Volkswagen thinks Samsung SDI cannot deliver its increasing demand for batteries given the battery manufacturer’s limited capacity. Thus VW has split the order amongst a few leading battery manufacturers and hopes to build its own factory soon. Samsung SDI sees a further downtrend in share price following VW’s change in plans.
South Korean late comer SK Innovations becomes noteworthy for their aggressive investments in Capacity Expansion

Stocks of these key battery players are on the downtrend. However, we feel that the decline in the share price of CATL and Panasonic could present an opportunity to buy the stocks for their long-term growth prospects.


A Monthly on EV Batteries: Intense Competition on Capacity Expansions and Securing Deals

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Luxurious auto car distribution in China sounds like a great business to have, supported by the rising number of wealthy individuals springing up in various parts of the Middle Kingdom. However, the sector seems to be very fragmented where no single companies is able to have significant market share as none of them has exclusive distribution rights over a particular foreign brand including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10795" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10795:1">China Meidong Auto (1268 HK)</a> . The recent share price surge powered by growth expansion from the single city single store initiative (in third and fourth tier cities) may not last long as there is nothing stopping any competitor to expand to these markets when demand still outstrip supply therefore margin is better compared to the first tier cities. However, it also brings the question whether the fresh demand from the new wealth in the third and fourth tier cities have enough depth to sustain China Meidong Auto's sales growth.

Luxurious auto car distribution in China sounds like a great business to have, supported by the rising number of wealthy individuals springing up in various parts of the Middle Kingdom. However, the sector seems to be very fragmented where no single companies is able to have significant market share as none of them has exclusive distribution rights over a particular foreign brand including China Meidong Auto (1268 HK) . The recent share price surge powered by growth expansion from the single city single store initiative (in third and fourth tier cities) may not last long as there is nothing stopping any competitor to expand to these markets when demand still outstrip supply therefore margin is better compared to the first tier cities. However, it also brings the question whether the fresh demand from the new wealth in the third and fourth tier cities have enough depth to sustain China Meidong Auto's sales growth.

China Meidong Auto (1268): Low Inventory to Carry On?

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

Six weeks into the second quarter, and just two weeks after raising more than $2 billion selling stock and bonds, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20279" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> CEO Elon Musk alerted employees in an email after the market closed yesterday that he and the CFO need to do "hardcore" reviews of every expense "no matter how small" to keep the company from running out of cash.
This suggests potentially troubling demand trends and operating performance pressure have continued since the disastrous first quarter, when <a href="https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2218d34-fbee-4f1f-ac95-050eb29dd42f?mod=article_inline" target="_blank">Tesla generated a massive near-record loss</a> which drove available cash down to the lowest since January 2017 despite what should have been Tesla's third straight successful quarter since the launch of its flagship Model 3.
It's also obvious the company's long-awaited secondary stock offering priced only two weeks ago at just $243, which at the time was down 27% ytd and a two year low, came six months too late. Back in December investors were confident in Tesla's ambitious guidance for deliveries, revenue, and profits, hopes that since then have been crushed by two straight quarters which trailed market expectations.
Tesla stock remains in free fall two weeks later, closing on Friday at $211--down 37% ytd and the lowest since December 2016 when the launch of Model 3 was still six months away.
<div class="content-highlight">
Read on for more Bond Angle discussion about Tesla's prospects for the second quarter and full years 2019-2020, including model updates.
</div>

Six weeks into the second quarter, and just two weeks after raising more than $2 billion selling stock and bonds, Tesla Motors (TSLA US) CEO Elon Musk alerted employees in an email after the market closed yesterday that he and the CFO need to do "hardcore" reviews of every expense "no matter how small" to keep the company from running out of cash.
This suggests potentially troubling demand trends and operating performance pressure have continued since the disastrous first quarter, when Tesla generated a massive near-record loss which drove available cash down to the lowest since January 2017 despite what should have been Tesla's third straight successful quarter since the launch of its flagship Model 3.
It's also obvious the company's long-awaited secondary stock offering priced only two weeks ago at just $243, which at the time was down 27% ytd and a two year low, came six months too late. Back in December investors were confident in Tesla's ambitious guidance for deliveries, revenue, and profits, hopes that since then have been crushed by two straight quarters which trailed market expectations.
Tesla stock remains in free fall two weeks later, closing on Friday at $211--down 37% ytd and the lowest since December 2016 when the launch of Model 3 was still six months away.

Read on for more Bond Angle discussion about Tesla's prospects for the second quarter and full years 2019-2020, including model updates.


Tesla: When a Spartan Diet + $2 Billion Isn't Enough

Japan

Panasonic Corporation manufactures electric and electronic products. The Company produces home appliances, audio & video, computer peripherals, telecommunications, industrial equipment, and electronic parts. Panasonic has associatedcompanies around the world.

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Panasonic Corp Spon Adr (PCRFY US)

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

Toyota Sides with CATL to Accelerate Its EV Goals; Reliance on Panasonic Reduces

On Friday, the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with CATL (A) (300750 CH) to supply...

Aqila Ali

A Monthly on EV Batteries: Intense Competition on Capacity Expansions and Securing Deals

This is our first monthly insight on EV batteries, which focuses mainly on Li-ion batteries, and their development. In this note we take a look at...

Aqila Ali

China Meidong Auto (1268): Low Inventory to Carry On?

Luxurious auto car distribution in China sounds like a great business to have, supported by the rising number of wealthy individuals springing up...

Henry Soediarko

Tesla: When a Spartan Diet + $2 Billion Isn't Enough

Six weeks into the second quarter, and just two weeks after raising more than $2 billion selling stock and bonds, Tesla Motors (TSLA US) CEO Elon...

Vicki Bryan

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