'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 13th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/386/original/image_36527959121618346539491.png?1618346540" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200386"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7806:1" rel="noopener">Toho (9602 JP)</a> cinemas has yet to bottom out but is still in profit. 'New wave' software companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28112:1" rel="noopener">Sansan (4443 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> are growing into their extreme valuations, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona's</a> under-appreciated margin transformation continues. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/403/original/image_63727914331618348873715.png?1618348877" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/404/original/image_12260447541618348911606.png?1618348912" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200404"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/405/original/image_35233699051618348944141.png?1618348944" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200405"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/406/original/image_14670185761618348969100.png?1618348969" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200406"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 13th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/407/original/image_58511005871618349036093.png?1618349036" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200407"></figure><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Two-thirds of annual forecasts/revisions were positive, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7806:1" rel="noopener">Toho (9602 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> the leading largest-cap optimists. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santen-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8602:1" rel="noopener">Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP)</a> revised down following a delay in the approval of glaucoma implant DE-128.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/408/original/image_63605452481618349380112.png?1618349381" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200408"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/409/original/image_46822562891618349413296.png?1618349413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200409"></figure>

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 13th APRIL •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Toho (9602 JP) cinemas has yet to bottom out but is still in profit. 'New wave' software companies Sansan (4443 JP) and Money Forward (3994 JP) are growing into their extreme valuations, while Pasona's under-appreciated margin transformation continues. • LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 13th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Two-thirds of annual forecasts/revisions were positive, with Toho (9602 JP) and J Front Retailing (3086 JP) the leading largest-cap optimists. Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) revised down following a delay in the approval of glaucoma implant DE-128.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM revenue decline is 8% and operating margins have declined by 4 percentage points year-on-year. 25% of the companies are still in the red for the quarter. Our best and worst pair for the day is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sakata-seed-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9825:1" rel="noopener">Sakata Seed (1377 JP)</a> and eyewear retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jins-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12002:1" rel="noopener">JINS (3046 JP)</a>.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/339/original/2021-01-14_06-42-35.png?1610574169" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182339"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/340/original/2021-01-14_06-44-07.png?1610574261" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182340"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics.</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM revenue decline is 8% and operating margins have declined by 4 percentage points year-on-year. 25% of the companies are still in the red for the quarter. Our best and worst pair for the day is Sakata Seed (1377 JP) and eyewear retailer JINS (3046 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Equity Bottom-Up

Matching Service Japan / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recruitment agency businesses have their general attractions in Japan, but we would focus on the highest-quality names like JAC Recruitment and Matching Service Japan;</li>
<li>Both companies appear to compete advantageously partly thanks to their niche focuses;</li>
<li>Both shares trade at similar valuations;</li>
<li>We feel it way more difficult to pick between the two than set them apart from the larger crowd, but here is our No. 1 pick if we have to choose.</li>
</ul>


Recruitment agency businesses have their general attractions in Japan, but we would focus on the highest-quality names like JAC Recruitment and Matching Service Japan;
Both companies appear to compete advantageously partly thanks to their niche focuses;
Both shares trade at similar valuations;
We feel it way more difficult to pick between the two than set them apart from the larger crowd, but here is our No. 1 pick if we have to choose.


Two Japanese High-Quality, Niche-Focused Recruitment Agents

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkiso-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6272:1" rel="noopener">Nikkiso (6376 JP).</a></p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/166/825/original/2020-10-23_06-19-12.png?1603401664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="166825"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/166/826/original/2020-10-23_06-20-11.png?1603401680" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="166826"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>8 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 38% Positive / 0% Neutral / 63% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.0 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.3% Quarter YoY / -1.4% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>16 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 31% Positive / 6% Neutral / 63% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 53% Positive / 7% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.7 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS
8 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 38% Positive / 0% Neutral / 63% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -3.0 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.3% Quarter YoY / -1.4% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
16 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 31% Positive / 6% Neutral / 63% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 7% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona (2168 JP)</a> and health and beauty product E-commerce play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitanotatsujin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6126:1" rel="noopener">Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/456/original/2020-10-16_06-21-15.png?1602796892" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165456"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/457/original/2020-10-16_06-22-00.png?1602796932" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165457"></figure></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>73 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 11% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +0.1 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.3% Quarter YoY / -0.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.1ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 36%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>44 Annual • 18 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 52% Positive / 9% Neutral / 39% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 39% Positive / 0% Neutral / 61% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.6 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS73 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 45% Positive / 11% Neutral / 44% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +0.1 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -10.3% Quarter YoY / -0.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 36%
44 Annual • 18 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 52% Positive / 9% Neutral / 39% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 39% Positive / 0% Neutral / 61% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.6 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Japan

Pasona Group Inc. manages companies that provide placement and staffing services for clients in the information technology sector.

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Pasona Group (2168 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

RESULTS - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Toho (9602 JP) cinemas has yet to...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM...

Campbell Gunn

Two Japanese High-Quality, Niche-Focused Recruitment Agents

We feel it way more difficult to pick between the two than set them apart from the larger crowd, but here is our No. 1 pick if we have to choose.

Steven Chen

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

RESULTS - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Toho (9602 JP) cinemas has yet to...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM...

Campbell Gunn

Two Japanese High-Quality, Niche-Focused Recruitment Agents

We feel it way more difficult to pick between the two than set them apart from the larger crowd, but here is our No. 1 pick if we have to choose.

Steven Chen

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark