Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>A review of Vermilion's Sector Rankings (RSR) reveals Cap-weighted Groups, as a whole, ranking better<br>than average-weighted (or equal-weighted), reflecting the S&amp;P 500's outperformance relative to the Russell 2000.  We share comments on a number of sectors and highlight bottoms-up ideas in the semiconductor and software space.</p>

A review of Vermilion's Sector Rankings (RSR) reveals Cap-weighted Groups, as a whole, ranking better than average-weighted (or equal-weighted), reflecting the S&amp;P 500's outperformance relative to the Russell 2000.  We share comments on a number of sectors and highlight bottoms-up ideas in the semiconductor and software space.

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>An M&amp;A deal and a spinoff are both closing soon.  The M&amp;A will trigger an intra-review SP 500 ADD. The spinoff will trigger a SP 600 DEL.</li>
<li>We expect two changes during the regular June 2026 rebalance and two more intra-review index changes after the regular rebalance is announced.</li>
</ul>


The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
An M&amp;A deal and a spinoff are both closing soon.  The M&amp;A will trigger an intra-review SP 500 ADD. The spinoff will trigger a SP 600 DEL.
We expect two changes during the regular June 2026 rebalance and two more intra-review index changes after the regular rebalance is announced.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Jun26 Rebal: One Intra-Review ADD Imminent as M&A Deal Nears Close

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertiv-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33140:1" rel="noopener">Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coherent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9518:1" rel="noopener">Coherent (COHR US)</a> are the main candidates for addition, based on high eligibility scores.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lumentum-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12529:1" rel="noopener">Lumentum Holdings (LITE US)</a> face reduced conviction due to tech-sector balance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/echostar-corp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3225:1" rel="noopener">Echostar Corp A (SATS US)</a> faces reduced conviction because of earnings and float cap.</li>
</ul>



Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US) and Coherent (COHR US) are the main candidates for addition, based on high eligibility scores.

Marvell Technology (MRVL US) and Lumentum Holdings (LITE US) face reduced conviction due to tech-sector balance.

Echostar Corp A (SATS US) faces reduced conviction because of earnings and float cap.


S&P500 March 2026 Forecast: VRT, COHR & SATS Leading the Pack

<ul>
<li>The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world. </li>
<li>We expect two changes during the March 2026 regular rebalance. One intra-review index change is possible but unlikely before the regular rebalance is announced.</li>
<li>One name stands out as more interesting than the others.</li>
</ul>


The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world. 
We expect two changes during the March 2026 regular rebalance. One intra-review index change is possible but unlikely before the regular rebalance is announced.
One name stands out as more interesting than the others.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Mar26 Rebal: Base Date Is Less Than A Month Away

<ul>
<li>The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.</li>
<li>They rebalance with SP500 name changes and capping mechanisms when the SP500 index is rebalanced. Here we present expected flows for the March 2026 rebal.  </li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of ~US$7.4bn in March 2026 for the Select Sector indices in total. There is of course an additional US$9.7bn for the SP500, $7.8bn for Equal Weight.</li>
</ul>


The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
They rebalance with SP500 name changes and capping mechanisms when the SP500 index is rebalanced. Here we present expected flows for the March 2026 rebal.  
We expect one-way flow of ~US$7.4bn in March 2026 for the Select Sector indices in total. There is of course an additional US$9.7bn for the SP500, $7.8bn for Equal Weight.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: Still Over US$7bn One-Way Flow Expected

United States

Paycom Software Inc provides cloud-based HCM software solution delivered as Software-as-a-Service.  The Company provides functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the complete employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement.

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Paycom Software (PAYC US)

U.S. Equity Sector Rankings

A review of Vermilion's Sector Rankings (RSR) reveals Cap-weighted Groups, as a whole, ranking betterthan average-weighted (or equal-weighted),...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Jun26 Rebal: One Intra-Review ADD Imminent as M&A Deal Nears Close

We expect 1 spinoff change to SP500/600 imminently, one M&A change to SP500, then two changes in the June 2026 rebalance. There could be two other...

Anjana Amarasuriya

S&P500 March 2026 Forecast: VRT, COHR & SATS Leading the Pack

Announced additions: VRT, COHR, SATS and LITE. Following the announcement, all four are trading higher in after hours by 5.2%, 0.7%, 3.2%, and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Mar26 Rebal: Base Date Is Less Than A Month Away

The base date is approaching next week and this is a good time to revisit the insight. Lamb Weston has replaced Molina Healthcare in our top...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: Still Over US$7bn One-Way Flow Expected

The SP Sector Select indices get rebalanced at the same time with the SP500/EW indices and add more one-way flow. Across the three of them, we see...

Anjana Amarasuriya

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