HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rare earth is an important area in the US-China trade negotiation, as China processes 90% of the world's supply, and the US depends on China for 70% of its imports.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-northern-rare-earth-group-high-tech-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13440:1" rel="noopener">China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minmetals-rare-earth-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2083:1" rel="noopener">China Minmetals Rare Earth (000831 CH)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenghe-resources-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17058:1" rel="noopener">Shenghe Resources Holding (600392 CH)</a> are the main listed A-shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jl-mag-rare-earth-co-ltd-71612cf2-8326-48fd-8a92-d5dc0e9fa720" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36201:1" rel="noopener">JL Mag Rare-Earth (6680 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-rare-earth-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12729:1" rel="noopener">China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK)</a> are the key Hong Kong-listed ones. They all witnessed better YoY profit in the latest reported results.</li>
</ul>


Rare earth is an important area in the US-China trade negotiation, as China processes 90% of the world's supply, and the US depends on China for 70% of its imports.

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH), China Minmetals Rare Earth (000831 CH), and Shenghe Resources Holding (600392 CH) are the main listed A-shares.

JL Mag Rare-Earth (6680 HK) and China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK) are the key Hong Kong-listed ones. They all witnessed better YoY profit in the latest reported results.


China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths - What and How?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

<ul>
<li>I tally 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paramount-bed-holdings-co-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17808:1" rel="noopener">Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">Oneconnect (6638 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-kangji-medical-instrument-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28938:1" rel="noopener">Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soft99-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18486:1" rel="noopener">Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP).
Key updates/news took place on PointsBet (PBH AU), Oneconnect (6638 HK), Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), and Mandom Corp (4917 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Jinke Smart Services, Soft99, Mandom, Paramount Bed

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> has overshot the mark.</li>
<li>KKR's lock up in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.</li>
<li>Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>. That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
KKR's lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

<ul>
<li>I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emeco-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8126:1" rel="noopener">Emeco Holdings (EHL AU)</a> appear to be in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartpay-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45153:1" rel="noopener">SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soft99-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18486:1" rel="noopener">Soft99 (4464 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ci-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26170:1" rel="noopener">Ci Medical (3540 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) and Emeco Holdings (EHL AU) appear to be in the crosshairs. 
Key updates/news took place on SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Soft99 (4464 JP), and Ci Medical (3540 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

Australia

Peak Rare Earths Limited Ngualla provides exploration and mining services. The Company explores and develops rare earth project via a sequenced development approach to enable low carbon technologies to power the green transformation. Peak Rare Earths serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU)

China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths - What and How?

US-China trade negotiation is heavily influenced by rare earths, with China processing 90% of the global supply and the US relying on China for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

For the month of Sept, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Jinke Smart Services, Soft99, Mandom, Paramount Bed

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths - What and How?

​US-China trade negotiation is heavily influenced by rare earths, with China processing 90% of the global supply and the US relying on China for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

For the month of Sept, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Jinke Smart Services, Soft99, Mandom, Paramount Bed

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

US-China trade negotiation is heavily influenced by rare earths, with China processing 90% of the global supply and the US relying on China for...