Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.</li>
<li>We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.</li>
</ul>


On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.


$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Acotec Scientific Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK)</a> is an early-mover in peripheral drug coated balloon market in China and holds a dominant 85%+ market share.  </li>
<li>On November 7, Acotec received its first FDA approval for Vericor, a peripheral support catheter designed to enhance access to peripheral vessels.</li>
<li>Acotec started 2022 on a strong note, with revenue increasing 25% y/y in H1 2022 due to increasing adoption of the company’s product in Chinese hospitals.</li>
</ul>



Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK) is an early-mover in peripheral drug coated balloon market in China and holds a dominant 85%+ market share.  
On November 7, Acotec received its first FDA approval for Vericor, a peripheral support catheter designed to enhance access to peripheral vessels.
Acotec started 2022 on a strong note, with revenue increasing 25% y/y in H1 2022 due to increasing adoption of the company’s product in Chinese hospitals.


Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK): Base Business, Geography Expansion, New Launch to Drive Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a> reported better-than-expected FY22 results, driven by overseas sales primarily in Europe and China mainly due to market recovery and a weaker yen versus other major currencies.</li>
<li>Asahi has raised FY23 revenue guidance to ¥89.3 billion (+15% y/y) from ¥83.5 billion earlier. However, with weakening yen, another beat is on card.</li>
<li>Although Asahi shares have strong upside potential, continued hospital staff shortages in the U.S. and COVID-related restrictions in China are the main downside risks.</li>
</ul>



Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported better-than-expected FY22 results, driven by overseas sales primarily in Europe and China mainly due to market recovery and a weaker yen versus other major currencies.
Asahi has raised FY23 revenue guidance to ¥89.3 billion (+15% y/y) from ¥83.5 billion earlier. However, with weakening yen, another beat is on card.
Although Asahi shares have strong upside potential, continued hospital staff shortages in the U.S. and COVID-related restrictions in China are the main downside risks.


Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Stellar Performance in FY22 Likely to Accelerate in FY23

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are quite a few changes for stocks across the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>, MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.</li>
<li>There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive buying will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keurig-dr-pepper-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15411:1" rel="noopener">Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor (ON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vici-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28786:1" rel="noopener">VICI Properties Inc (VICI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are quite a few changes for stocks across the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX), MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.
There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US), On Semiconductor (ON US) and VICI Properties Inc (VICI US). 


S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

Shanghai HeartCare Medical Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-heartcare-medical-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32192:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai HeartCare Medical Technology (6609 HK)</a> has leadership positioning in China’s neuro-intervention medical device market. The company has an attractive product portfolio with large addressable market.</li>
<li>Core product, Captor is expected to earn revenue of RMB656 million in 2030. Patent infringement lawsuit against Medtronic regarding Heartcare’s core product Captor remains a major overhang on the stock.</li>
<li>Heartcare shares plunged 24% since its listing in August. The company aims to commercialize 10 products between 2022 and 2025. Investors with high-risk appetite can take position.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai HeartCare Medical Technology (6609 HK) has leadership positioning in China’s neuro-intervention medical device market. The company has an attractive product portfolio with large addressable market.
Core product, Captor is expected to earn revenue of RMB656 million in 2030. Patent infringement lawsuit against Medtronic regarding Heartcare’s core product Captor remains a major overhang on the stock.
Heartcare shares plunged 24% since its listing in August. The company aims to commercialize 10 products between 2022 and 2025. Investors with high-risk appetite can take position.


Shanghai HeartCare Medcl(6609 HK): Comprehensive Stroke Produce Portfolio Comes with a Pinch of Salt

United States

Penumbra, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices. The Company offers peripheral vascular and neurovascular devices that help patients suffering from stroke and other neurovascular diseases. Penumbra operates in the United States.

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Penumbra (PEN US)

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

The $SPX reversed topside the 2-month downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023;...

Vermilion Research

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK): Base Business, Geography Expansion, New Launch to Drive Growth

Although recent price rally seems to be overdone, Acotec’s strong base business enhances conviction on its growth potential. Normalization of China...

Tina Banerjee

Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Stellar Performance in FY22 Likely to Accelerate in FY23

Driven by global procedure volume recovery and favorable Fx, Asahi is expected to report double-digit revenue growth through FY25 and achieve its...

Tina Banerjee

S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

There are 3 changes for the S&P500, plus more changes for the MidCap and SmallCap indices. We estimate a one-way trade of US$30bn across the...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai HeartCare Medcl(6609 HK): Comprehensive Stroke Produce Portfolio Comes with a Pinch of Salt

Comprehensive and innovative product portfolio addressing large patient pool is the key positive for the company. However, ongoing patent...

Tina Banerjee

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