Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time. The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time.  The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

The suggestion of government orchestration against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1">Ono</a>’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the Nikkei that the Japanese Health Ministry is considering setting rules on new drug usage during this fiscal year, starting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1">Ono</a>’s Opdivo and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091">Astellas</a>’s Repatha. Patients may be limited to those who can see certain impact from the treatment, which in turn would mean the drug could only be prescribed at those institutions with the facilities to check…

The suggestion of government orchestration against Ono’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the Nikkei that the Japanese Health Ministry is considering setting rules on new drug usage during this fiscal year, starting with Ono’s Opdivo and Astellas’s Repatha. Patients may be limited to those who can see certain impact from the treatment, which in turn would mean the drug could only be prescribed at those institutions with the facilities to check…

Opdivo Singled Out in Government Rule Change

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index has a complex selection methodology which considers size, fundamentals, and governance factors.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs each month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance scheduled for August 2026 based on trading data as of end-February 2026.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index has a complex selection methodology which considers size, fundamentals, and governance factors.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs each month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance scheduled for August 2026 based on trading data as of end-February 2026.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Feb 2026 Ranks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of this global index ended 31 December, the changes should be announced on 20 February and implemented at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>We forecast 41 changes across the index with 12 inclusions to the AC Index, 4 migrations from AC to AW, 11 migrations from AW to AC, and 14 deletions.</li>
<li>An equally weighted basket of the adds and upward migrations has outperformed the deletes and the downward migrations over the last 4 months with significant outperformance in the near-term too.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of this global index ended 31 December, the changes should be announced on 20 February and implemented at the close on 20 March.
We forecast 41 changes across the index with 12 inclusions to the AC Index, 4 migrations from AC to AW, 11 migrations from AW to AC, and 14 deletions.
An equally weighted basket of the adds and upward migrations has outperformed the deletes and the downward migrations over the last 4 months with significant outperformance in the near-term too.


Japan: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March & Big Outperformance

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> reported better-than-expected 2024 result, with all key parameters beating upwardly revised guidance. Both revenue and net profit hit record high.</li>
<li>Larger than anticipated upfront associated with the expanded Novartis collaboration and increased milestone revenue contributed to the stellar performance of 2024.</li>
<li>The company expects 2025 revenue to increase 5% YoY to ¥49B. Both core operating and operating profits are expected to increase 2% YoY and net profit by 1%.  </li>
</ul>



Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) reported better-than-expected 2024 result, with all key parameters beating upwardly revised guidance. Both revenue and net profit hit record high.
Larger than anticipated upfront associated with the expanded Novartis collaboration and increased milestone revenue contributed to the stellar performance of 2024.
The company expects 2025 revenue to increase 5% YoY to ¥49B. Both core operating and operating profits are expected to increase 2% YoY and net profit by 1%.  


Peptidream (4587 JP): 2024 Result Beats Guidance; Positive Outlook for 2025

Japan

PeptiDream Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that researches and develops peptide therapeutics to improve the life of patients.

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Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)

Death Rattle for Defensives?

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Opdivo Singled Out in Government Rule Change

The suggestion of government orchestration against Ono’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Feb 2026 Ranks

In total, there are 49 Potential ADDs and 47 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March & Big Outperformance

There could be 41 changes for the index in March. The passive trading impact is high for most stocks. The adds and upward migrations have...

Brian Freitas

Peptidream (4587 JP): 2024 Result Beats Guidance; Positive Outlook for 2025

Peptidream surpasses expectations with record high revenue and net profit in 2024, fueled by expanded Novartis collaboration and milestone...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Death Rattle for Defensives?

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Opdivo Singled Out in Government Rule Change

The suggestion of government orchestration against Ono’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Feb 2026 Ranks

In total, there are 49 Potential ADDs and 47 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March & Big Outperformance

There could be 41 changes for the index in March. The passive trading impact is high for most stocks. The adds and upward migrations have...

Brian Freitas

Peptidream (4587 JP): 2024 Result Beats Guidance; Positive Outlook for 2025

​Peptidream surpasses expectations with record high revenue and net profit in 2024, fueled by expanded Novartis collaboration and milestone...

Tina Banerjee

Peptidream surpasses expectations with record high revenue and net profit in 2024, fueled by expanded Novartis collaboration and milestone...