Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. </li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 6th June 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. 
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 6th June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs; Strong Alpha; Reference Period Ending Soon

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.</li>
<li>Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.
Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up +14% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Some Changes to Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a>'s stock price has moved higher over the last year as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold</a> has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a> has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.</li>
<li>Positioning has jumped in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a> and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



Evolution Mining's stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.


Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. </li>
<li>Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.</li>
<li>Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.</li>
</ul>


Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. 
Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.
Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.


Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Australia

Perseus Mining Limited is a mining and exploration company. The Company acquires, explores, develops, mines, and produces gold. Perseus Mining conducts its mining operations in Africa and Australia.

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Perseus Mining (PRU AU)

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Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

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Brian Freitas

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Mark Jolley

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

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Vermilion Research

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