Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a>, based on statistical mean reversion analysis.</li>
<li>
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.</li>
</ul>



Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.

Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.

Why Read: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.


Perseus Mining (PRU AU) Vs. Capricorn Metals (CMM AU): Statistical Gold Trade Hits Target

<ul>
<li>
Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a>, two Australian gold miners.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long Perseus Mining and short Capricorn Metals targets a 9% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with Perseus offering cheaper valuations and higher growth.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity between Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU), two Australian gold miners.

Highlights: Going long Perseus Mining and short Capricorn Metals targets a 9% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with Perseus offering cheaper valuations and higher growth.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Perseus Mining Vs. Capricorn Metals: Striking Gold with Statistical Arbitrage

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change each for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, S&amp;P/ASX50 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX</a> and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 1-12.5 days of ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.6-9.8 days of ADV in the forecast deletes.</li>
<li>While cumulative excess volume has increased in the forecast adds and deletes, there could be underpositioning relative to the estimated passive flow in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27220:1" rel="noopener">Viva Energy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nick-scali-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20803:1" rel="noopener">Nick Scali</a>.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change each for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, S&amp;P/ASX50 Index and S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index in June.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1-12.5 days of ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.6-9.8 days of ADV in the forecast deletes.
While cumulative excess volume has increased in the forecast adds and deletes, there could be underpositioning relative to the estimated passive flow in Perseus Mining, Viva Energy and Nick Scali.


S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.</li>
<li>The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN)</a> merger transaction.</li>
<li>Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. </li>
</ul>



Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from Perseus Mining (PRU AU) at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.
The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the Robex Resources (RBX CN) merger transaction.
Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. 


Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> announced scrip-merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU)</a>. Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.</li>
<li>Immediately, rumours circled in local media that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>, PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. </li>
<li>Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.</li>
</ul>


On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) announced scrip-merger with Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU). Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.
Immediately, rumours circled in local media that Perseus Mining (PRU AU), PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. 
Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.


Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

Australia

Perseus Mining Limited is a mining and exploration company. The Company acquires, explores, develops, mines, and produces gold. Perseus Mining conducts its mining operations in Africa and Australia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Perseus Mining (PRU AU)