Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a mixed set of earnings with steady loan growth (+29% YoY) and improving operating efficiency offset by elevated credit costs (2.1% annualised)</li><li>Asset quality witnessed deterioration across most segments, with higher forward flow rates during Q2FY25 as well</li><li>The management has increased its FY25 credit cost guidance by 20-30bps, although incremental focus has shifted towards asset quality</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a mixed set of earnings with steady loan growth (+29% YoY) and improving operating efficiency offset by elevated credit costs (2.1% annualised)Asset quality witnessed deterioration across most segments, with higher forward flow rates during Q2FY25 as wellThe management has increased its FY25 credit cost guidance by 20-30bps, although incremental focus has shifted towards asset qualityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, ICICI Prudential Life, Persistent Systems, Supreme Industries

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The IT Services sector is anticipated to exhibit moderated growth in Q2FY25, primarily due to weaker discretionary spending, driven by uncertainties in macroeconomic conditions and upcoming elections in the US.</li><li>However, non-discretionary spending is expected to see some improvement. Many large enterprises are likely to prioritize cost optimizations, resulting in an increase in cost take-out deals, vendor consolidation, and reduced discretionary spending.</li><li>We are also expecting new deals to ramp-up indicating pick up in demand.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The IT Services sector is anticipated to exhibit moderated growth in Q2FY25, primarily due to weaker discretionary spending, driven by uncertainties in macroeconomic conditions and upcoming elections in the US.However, non-discretionary spending is expected to see some improvement. Many large enterprises are likely to prioritize cost optimizations, resulting in an increase in cost take-out deals, vendor consolidation, and reduced discretionary spending.We are also expecting new deals to ramp-up indicating pick up in demand.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q2FY25 Earnings Preview - Information Technology (IT)

<ul><li>The IT sector growth is in the middle of its recovery, having bottomed out two quarters ago, and is expected to achieve a high single-digit over the next three quarters</li><li>Current stock prices reflect increased confidence in this trajectory</li><li>AI is proving to be a net positive for the sector, and with GCC growth differential peaking, concerns around terminal growth are easing, supporting sustained demand</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The IT sector growth is in the middle of its recovery, having bottomed out two quarters ago, and is expected to achieve a high single-digit over the next three quartersCurrent stock prices reflect increased confidence in this trajectoryAI is proving to be a net positive for the sector, and with GCC growth differential peaking, concerns around terminal growth are easing, supporting sustained demandContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IT Sector (Q2FY25E Results Preview): Recovery in progress

<ul><li>Accenture’s reported Q4FY24 results stood in line with street expectations on all financial and operational terms.</li><li>Revenue for the quarter stood at $16.4 Bn, registering a growth of 3% (in US$ terms) and 5% (in local currency) on a YoY basis.</li><li>The company registered GAAP EPS of $2.66 for the quarter while adjusted EPS stood at $2.79, reporting 3% YoY growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Accenture’s reported Q4FY24 results stood in line with street expectations on all financial and operational terms.Revenue for the quarter stood at $16.4 Bn, registering a growth of 3% (in US$ terms) and 5% (in local currency) on a YoY basis.The company registered GAAP EPS of $2.66 for the quarter while adjusted EPS stood at $2.79, reporting 3% YoY growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sector Update - IT - Accenture - Gradual Pick-Up in Demand

India

Persistent Systems is a global digital engineering and enterprise modernization company. It provides information technology and software engineering services, including software product engineering, cloud services, and data-driven solutions to clients across industries like banking, healthcare, and technology. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Pune, India.

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Persistent Systems (PSYS IN)

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, ICICI Prudential Life, Persistent Systems, Supreme Industries

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a mixed set of earnings with steady loan growth (+29% YoY) and improving operating efficiency offset by...

HDFC Securities

Q2FY25 Earnings Preview - Information Technology (IT)

The IT Services sector is anticipated to exhibit moderated growth in Q2FY25, primarily due to weaker discretionary spending, driven by...

Axis Direct

IT Sector (Q2FY25E Results Preview): Recovery in progress

The IT sector growth is in the middle of its recovery, having bottomed out two quarters ago, and is expected to achieve a high single-digit over...

HDFC Securities

Sector Update - IT - Accenture - Gradual Pick-Up in Demand

The company continues to witness strong demand for Gen AI – the great accelerator of reinvention – with over $1 Bn in new bookings.

Axis Direct

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