CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: One stock remains and 13 stocks are added </li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 116% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 60%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: One stock remains and 13 stocks are added 
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 116% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 60%


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>The recovery in Energy allocations among Asia Ex-Japan funds has stalled, and has started to reverse</li>
<li>Selling in Reliance Industries (RIL IN), Offshore Oil Engineering A (600583 CH) and CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) were the key drivers behind the move</li>
<li>Versus the iShares MSCI AAJX ETF, Energy is the largest sector underweight alongside Materials and Utilities, with managers overweight the Consumer sectors and Information Technology.  </li>
</ul>


The recovery in Energy allocations among Asia Ex-Japan funds has stalled, and has started to reverse
Selling in Reliance Industries (RIL IN), Offshore Oil Engineering A (600583 CH) and CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) were the key drivers behind the move
Versus the iShares MSCI AAJX ETF, Energy is the largest sector underweight alongside Materials and Utilities, with managers overweight the Consumer sectors and Information Technology.  


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The overvaluation or undervaluation of China core assets cannot be explained solely by valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF etc., but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by them.</li>
<li>The so-called policy, strategic, and systemic importance are playing increasingly important role in stock picking process. It's not wise to just analyze it from bottom-up perspective without considering top-down perspective.</li>
<li>There’s no eternal,universal,absolute truth in this world. We’re in the midst of a "unprecedented upheaval in a century".It's time to change mindset so investors don't miss the next valuation takeoff.</li>
</ul>


The overvaluation or undervaluation of China core assets cannot be explained solely by valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF etc., but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by them.
The so-called policy, strategic, and systemic importance are playing increasingly important role in stock picking process. It's not wise to just analyze it from bottom-up perspective without considering top-down perspective.
There’s no eternal,universal,absolute truth in this world. We’re in the midst of a "unprecedented upheaval in a century".It's time to change mindset so investors don't miss the next valuation takeoff.


Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>The oil majors - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-petroleum-chemical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:369:1" rel="noopener">China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a> - are interesting plays on government's plan to boost capital market valuations.</li>
<li>Higher dividend payout, privatisation of undervalued subsidiaries, return to A-shares, share buyback and upping stake by major shareholders are just some example of supporting tactics.</li>
<li>The government may possibly mobilise more offshore funds of SOEs to add stakes. We think ROE expansion and capital market valuations to gain importance in senior management KPIs.</li>
</ul>


The oil majors - CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK) and PetroChina (857 HK) - are interesting plays on government's plan to boost capital market valuations.
Higher dividend payout, privatisation of undervalued subsidiaries, return to A-shares, share buyback and upping stake by major shareholders are just some example of supporting tactics.
The government may possibly mobilise more offshore funds of SOEs to add stakes. We think ROE expansion and capital market valuations to gain importance in senior management KPIs.


China Oil Sector: A Look from SOE Valuation Enhancement Angle

China

PetroChina is a Chinese oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil and natural gas, as well as new energy operations. It also refines crude oil and petroleum products, produces and markets petrochemical products, and sells natural gas. The company was founded on November 5, 1999, and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 41

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: One stock remains, 13 stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

Asia Ex-Japan Energy: Stalled Recovery

Active Asia Ex-Japan managers are reassessing their exposure to the Energy sector. Selling in key names moves Energy to the largest sector...

Steven Holden

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning

Many investors do not have a deep understanding of the "valuation system with Chinese characteristics". It is necessary to provide some...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Oil Sector: A Look from SOE Valuation Enhancement Angle

Higher dividend payout, privatisation of undervalued subsidiaries, return to A-shares, share buyback and upping stake by major shareholders can...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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