Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

State Bank of India, India’s largest bank by assets and the government’s premier bank,  <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2018/02/09/sbi-posts-surprise-loss-as-provisions-surge-treasury-income-falls" target="_blank">shocked</a> the market by reporting a 3QFY2018 loss of Rs 24.2 bn as compared with the consensus analysts’ estimate of a profit of Rs 20.5 bn. Worse, the bank reported that it had mis-reported its FY2017 accounts; its net profits should have been lower by 36% and its gross non-performing assets (NPAs) higher by 21%. Its losses for 3QFY2018 would have been higher as the bank created a deferred tax asset of Rs 22.8 bn effectively lowering its losses by that amount. The future appears bleak for the bank as investors should expect a large component of its restructured standard loans to become NPAs which should increase credit costs. Retail loans which appear healthy may cause further problems for the banking industry as the economy continues to stagnate.

State Bank of India, India’s largest bank by assets and the government’s premier bank,  shocked the market by reporting a 3QFY2018 loss of Rs 24.2 bn as compared with the consensus analysts’ estimate of a profit of Rs 20.5 bn. Worse, the bank reported that it had mis-reported its FY2017 accounts; its net profits should have been lower by 36% and its gross non-performing assets (NPAs) higher by 21%. Its losses for 3QFY2018 would have been higher as the bank created a deferred tax asset of Rs 22.8 bn effectively lowering its losses by that amount. The future appears bleak for the bank as investors should expect a large component of its restructured standard loans to become NPAs which should increase credit costs. Retail loans which appear healthy may cause further problems for the banking industry as the economy continues to stagnate.

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this issue:Flying cars, Zimbabwe coup de Grace, impairments, Brazil making oil investment more attractive, tightening monitoring of Chinese policy banks, paid for research post-MIFID 2,  out of control algorithms,  BBK in India, and China and the CIA fight over start-ups.Production issues delayed 21 Things publication today<div class="content-highlight">1.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/127" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1">Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (175 HK)</a> parent Zhejiang Geely purchased Terrafugia in the US.  <a href="https://www.terrafugia.com/about-terrafugia/" target="_blank">Terrafugia</a> aims to have a sellable flying car within 2 years.  The…</div>

In this issue:Flying cars, Zimbabwe coup de Grace, impairments, Brazil making oil investment more attractive, tightening monitoring of Chinese policy banks, paid for research post-MIFID 2,  out of control algorithms,  BBK in India, and China and the CIA fight over start-ups.Production issues delayed 21 Things publication today1.  Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (175 HK) parent Zhejiang Geely purchased Terrafugia in the US.  Terrafugia aims to have a sellable flying car within 2 years.  The…

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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<ul>
<li>The administration of Michel Temer has dramatically changed the outlook for utilities and energy companies in Brazil.</li>
<li>Some of the most significant changes have impacted oil drilling and exploration by state-owned giant Petrobras (PBR).</li>
<li>Talk of widespread privatization has whipsawed utilities and energy stocks in recent weeks.</li>
<li>The biofuel industry has seen a lot of consolidation as bankruptcies driven by high debt levels combined with low commodity prices,  Recent changes should boost the industry.</li>
<li>…</li>
</ul>


The administration of Michel Temer has dramatically changed the outlook for utilities and energy companies in Brazil.
Some of the most significant changes have impacted oil drilling and exploration by state-owned giant Petrobras (PBR).
Talk of widespread privatization has whipsawed utilities and energy stocks in recent weeks.
The biofuel industry has seen a lot of consolidation as bankruptcies driven by high debt levels combined with low commodity prices,  Recent changes should boost the industry.
…


Temer's Dramatic Policy Changes in Brazil - Implications for Biofuel, Electricity and Oil Companies

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving averages. Japan, too, exhibits a pullback opportunity, though much shallower in depth (a sign of strength).Now pan to emerging markets and you’ll find where leadership is concentrated, where the MSCI EM Index is breaking out to all-time highs, and where its relative strength trend is bottoming versus the U.S. and international markets.In short, the technical environment remains bullish, and so does our outlook.

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving averages. Japan, too, exhibits a pullback opportunity, though much shallower in depth (a sign of strength).Now pan to emerging markets and you’ll find where leadership is concentrated, where the MSCI EM Index is breaking out to all-time highs, and where its relative strength trend is bottoming versus the U.S. and international markets.In short, the technical environment remains bullish, and so does our outlook.

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

Head of Research at Fusion Wealth Management Ltd

Michael McGaughy

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap.  This post is about anti-corruption campaigns underway in many developing countries and the counter-intuitive evidence that corrupt countries may have higher returns.  Ultimately, it’s about…

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap.  This post is about anti-corruption campaigns underway in many developing countries and the counter-intuitive evidence that corrupt countries may have higher returns.  Ultimately, it’s about…

Another Reason to Look at Developing Countries - Decreasing Corruption

Brazil

Petrobras is a Brazilian multinational corporation primarily engaged in the oil and gas industry, focusing on exploration, production, refining, and distribution activities. The company also operates in natural gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and electric power generation. Petrobras was founded on October 3, 1953, and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

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Petrobras (PBR US)

SBI - An Elephant in Distress

State Bank of India, India’s largest bank by assets and the government’s premier bank, shocked the market by reporting a 3QFY2018 loss of Rs 24.2...

Hemindra Hazari

21 Things Worth Knowing (#16)

In this issue:Flying cars, Zimbabwe coup de Grace, impairments, Brazil making oil investment more attractive, tightening monitoring of Chinese...

Mark Artherton

Temer's Dramatic Policy Changes in Brazil - Implications for Biofuel, Electricity and Oil Companies

The administration of Michel Temer has dramatically changed the outlook for utilities and energy companies in Brazil. Some of the most significant...

David Riedel

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving...

Vermilion Research

Another Reason to Look at Developing Countries - Decreasing Corruption

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value. I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality...

Michael McGaughy

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