Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>After market close on Friday 20th May 2022, the constituency changes for S&amp;P BSE 100, SENSEX 50, and SENSEX Next 50 Indices were announced. </li>
<li>There will be no changes for S&amp;P BSE SENSEX and S&amp;P BSE BANKEX Indices in the June 2022 Rebalance. </li>
<li>These changes will become effective at the open of Monday 20th June 2022. Below is a closer look at each of the names involved in the June 2022 Rebalance.</li>
</ul>


After market close on Friday 20th May 2022, the constituency changes for S&amp;P BSE 100, SENSEX 50, and SENSEX Next 50 Indices were announced. 
There will be no changes for S&amp;P BSE SENSEX and S&amp;P BSE BANKEX Indices in the June 2022 Rebalance. 
These changes will become effective at the open of Monday 20th June 2022. Below is a closer look at each of the names involved in the June 2022 Rebalance.


S&P BSE Indices: No Changes for SENSEX; 7 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 in June 2022

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 revenue grew by 47.3% YoY due to the 55.7% increase in COGS caused by the YoY increase in term gas price following the 62% YoY jump in Brent crude oil price.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 capacity utilisation: Dahej utilisation stood at 79.4% vs 91% in 4QFY21. Kochi utilisation stood at 20% vs 23% a year ago.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>BITDA margin reflected a miss of 231bps at 10.47% while EBITDA came in 9.9% below our estimate and a 9.6% miss vs street estimate.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

4QFY22 revenue grew by 47.3% YoY due to the 55.7% increase in COGS caused by the YoY increase in term gas price following the 62% YoY jump in Brent crude oil price.4QFY22 capacity utilisation: Dahej utilisation stood at 79.4% vs 91% in 4QFY21. Kochi utilisation stood at 20% vs 23% a year ago.BITDA margin reflected a miss of 231bps at 10.47% while EBITDA came in 9.9% below our estimate and a 9.6% miss vs street estimate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Petronet LNG - Kochi Tariff-Cut Hits Earnings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>GAIL bucks energy storm hitting sector demand and margins. We see GAIL lead the Oil &amp; Gas pack even as the rest of the sector companies are trapped in the crosswinds of a sharp spike in crude oil, natural gas and product prices.</li><li>The surge in the Oil &amp; Gas chain prices sustained through April21 to mid-natural gas, especially LNG.</li><li>This has been fueled further by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led to a scramble for crude oil, gas and diesel, with Russian exports (5mn bpd of oil...(continued).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

GAIL bucks energy storm hitting sector demand and margins. We see GAIL lead the Oil &amp; Gas pack even as the rest of the sector companies are trapped in the crosswinds of a sharp spike in crude oil, natural gas and product prices.The surge in the Oil &amp; Gas chain prices sustained through April21 to mid-natural gas, especially LNG.This has been fueled further by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led to a scramble for crude oil, gas and diesel, with Russian exports (5mn bpd of oil...(continued).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oil & Gas Sector: GAIL Bucks Energy Storm Hitting Sector Demand and Margins

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

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CreditAccess Grameen Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>CreditAccess Grameen: CreditAccess Grameen's (CREDAG) Q2FY22 earnings beat our estimates, led by healthy NII traction and asset quality improvement. As expected, the portfolio's transient stress from Q1FY22 decreased significantly with PAR-0 falling sharply from 30.6% to 11.5% sequentially (9.9% in Oct-21 for the standalone entity). GNPA increased marginally from 7.6% to 7.7% for the consolidated entity, despite MMFL aligning to 60dpd NPA recognition, in line with the standalone entity. With collection efficiencies on the rise (99% including arrears) and a low number of borrowers (4.4% of AUM) with zero payments, management has guided for a credit cost of ~4.8% and RoA of ~2% in FY22.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

CreditAccess Grameen: CreditAccess Grameen's (CREDAG) Q2FY22 earnings beat our estimates, led by healthy NII traction and asset quality improvement. As expected, the portfolio's transient stress from Q1FY22 decreased significantly with PAR-0 falling sharply from 30.6% to 11.5% sequentially (9.9% in Oct-21 for the standalone entity). GNPA increased marginally from 7.6% to 7.7% for the consolidated entity, despite MMFL aligning to 60dpd NPA recognition, in line with the standalone entity. With collection efficiencies on the rise (99% including arrears) and a low number of borrowers (4.4% of AUM) with zero payments, management has guided for a credit cost of ~4.8% and RoA of ~2% in FY22.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, Petronet LNG, Max Financial, Birla Corporation, CreditAccess Grameen,...

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<p>Energy is a lightly held sector, a bit part player in a world dominated by Tech, Financials and the EM Consumer.  The average holding weight among the active EM funds in our analysis stands at just 3.81%, underweight the benchmark by -2.11% on average.</p><p>The fact that nearly a quarter of active EM managers have no exposure to the Energy sector is perhaps the most telling statistic of just how under-owned the sector is.  Part of that reason, we believe, lies in the risk of not holding Energy when index weights are so low. </p><p>With Oil prices at multi-year highs, the Energy sector has started to outperform in a big way, with EM Energy outperforming the broader MSCI EM index by over 30% over the last 12 months.  With just 22.7% of funds overweight the benchmark, active EM managers are feeling the pinch.  The risk of being underweight or avoiding the sector completely has moved significantly higher.</p><p>One of the factors that has driven Energy to the margins of EM investment is the rise of secular growth opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services.  Indeed, the current investor base in Energy is heavily skewed towards the Value and Yield end of the spectrum.  Instead, Aggressive Growth managers have rotated towards the secular growth opportunities within Packaged Software, Internet Retail, Biotechnology and Internet Software/Services.</p><p>Can the lure of a cyclical growth opportunity such as Energy be enough to win back investment from Growth investors?  If Energy keeps outperforming it will undoubtedly push Growth investors to look for opportunities within the sector.  We identify 2 stocks that already have an investor base among both Aggressive Growth and Growth funds, whilst also appealing to Value investors.  As such, we would expect both to be on the shortlist of the many underweights and non-investors looking to ramp up allocations in the Energy sector as we shift to a new ownership regime.</p><p><em>Analysis taken from our EM research, covering 247 active GEM funds with combined AUM of $500bn</em></p>

Energy is a lightly held sector, a bit part player in a world dominated by Tech, Financials and the EM Consumer.  The average holding weight among the active EM funds in our analysis stands at just 3.81%, underweight the benchmark by -2.11% on average.The fact that nearly a quarter of active EM managers have no exposure to the Energy sector is perhaps the most telling statistic of just how under-owned the sector is.  Part of that reason, we believe, lies in the risk of not holding Energy when index weights are so low. With Oil prices at multi-year highs, the Energy sector has started to outperform in a big way, with EM Energy outperforming the broader MSCI EM index by over 30% over the last 12 months.  With just 22.7% of funds overweight the benchmark, active EM managers are feeling the pinch.  The risk of being underweight or avoiding the sector completely has moved significantly higher.One of the factors that has driven Energy to the margins of EM investment is the rise of secular growth opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services.  Indeed, the current investor base in Energy is heavily skewed towards the Value and Yield end of the spectrum.  Instead, Aggressive Growth managers have rotated towards the secular growth opportunities within Packaged Software, Internet Retail, Biotechnology and Internet Software/Services.Can the lure of a cyclical growth opportunity such as Energy be enough to win back investment from Growth investors?  If Energy keeps outperforming it will undoubtedly push Growth investors to look for opportunities within the sector.  We identify 2 stocks that already have an investor base among both Aggressive Growth and Growth funds, whilst also appealing to Value investors.  As such, we would expect both to be on the shortlist of the many underweights and non-investors looking to ramp up allocations in the Energy sector as we shift to a new ownership regime.Analysis taken from our EM research, covering 247 active GEM funds with combined AUM of $500bn

India

Petronet LNG Ltd. was formed by the Government of India to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the country. The Company is a joint venture between GAIL, ONGC, IOC and BPCL. Petronet LNG has also selected GAZ de France as a strategic partner. The Company has set up LNG receiving ports in Dahej (Gujarat) and Kochi (Kerala).

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Petronet LNG (PLNG IN)

S&P BSE Indices: No Changes for SENSEX; 7 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 in June 2022

S&P BSE Index changes for June 2022 were announced last week. No changes for SENSEX. 7 Adds/Deletes for BSE 100 including some negative and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Petronet LNG - Kochi Tariff-Cut Hits Earnings

Petronet LNG’s (PLNG) 4QFY22 consolidated PAT came in at Rs7.91bn – 3.6%/2.2% miss vs. NBIE/Consensus estimates. There was a 9%/231bps miss on...

Nirmal Bang

Oil & Gas Sector: GAIL Bucks Energy Storm Hitting Sector Demand and Margins

GAIL bucks energy storm hitting sector demand and margins. We see GAIL lead the Oil & Gas pack even as the rest of the sector companies are trapped...

Nirmal Bang

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, Petronet LNG, Max Financial, Birla Corporation, CreditAccess Grameen,...

CreditAccess Grameen: CreditAccess Grameen's (CREDAG) Q2FY22 earnings beat our estimates, led by healthy NII traction and asset quality...

HDFC Securities

EM Energy: Regime Shift

A quarter of active EM managers have no exposure to the Energy sector and only 23% are overweight. With Oil prices at multi-year highs, active EM...

Steven Holden

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