The accounting research firm, GMT Research

Lisa Mangkornkarn

The accounting research firm

GMT Research

GMT Research provides independent insight into markets, sectors and companies throughout Asia. Our unique method of mining a comprehensive collection of corporate financial statements for key data allows us to evaluate the financial health of a company, sectors and the market at large. We also investigate the application of accounting standards by companies and sectors, shedding light on the quality of reported profits. Armed with this information, we help investment professionals navigate the financial landscape.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Sometimes stock markets don’t bounce back. They just hit the bottom and then crawl sideways for years. Take Greece, its stock market is still 87% below its 2007 peak. Over 20 years later and Thailand’s is still below its 1994 peak! The problem in both instances was that a major part of the economy was over-leveraged and needed to down-pay debt. This necessitated slower economic growth. In Asia back in 1997, as it is in Greece today, an over-leveraged corporate sector was a major contributing factor. And yet scant attention is paid to this part of the economy…but that’s where we come in handy.Whilst we might be best known for our accounting reports on the likes of <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/noble-group-what-new-disclosure" target="_blank">Noble Group </a>and <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/airasia-just-answer-the-questions" target="_blank">AirAsia</a>, we also conduct detailed analysis of the listed corporate sector with a focus on capex, free cash flows and leverage. This enables us to tell whether the corporate sector is in a position to support an investment up-cycle or whether a prolonged down-cycle is likely. We gather data from over 32,000 listed non-financials across 43 markets over a 20 year horizon.

Sometimes stock markets don’t bounce back. They just hit the bottom and then crawl sideways for years. Take Greece, its stock market is still 87% below its 2007 peak. Over 20 years later and Thailand’s is still below its 1994 peak! The problem in both instances was that a major part of the economy was over-leveraged and needed to down-pay debt. This necessitated slower economic growth. In Asia back in 1997, as it is in Greece today, an over-leveraged corporate sector was a major contributing factor. And yet scant attention is paid to this part of the economy…but that’s where we come in handy.Whilst we might be best known for our accounting reports on the likes of Noble Group and AirAsia, we also conduct detailed analysis of the listed corporate sector with a focus on capex, free cash flows and leverage. This enables us to tell whether the corporate sector is in a position to support an investment up-cycle or whether a prolonged down-cycle is likely. We gather data from over 32,000 listed non-financials across 43 markets over a 20 year horizon.

CORPORATE LEVERAGE: An Inconvenient Truth

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.</li><li>The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.</li><li>I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.</li><li>In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.</li></ul>

Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.

India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ITC's share prices collapsed on 1st-Jan following a larger-than-expected indirect tax hike on Cigarettes in India. The changes translate to a 20-50% increase in MRP, potentially aiding illicit Cigarette trade.</li>
<li>We present data on how ITC's Cigarette business has performed well despite regular tax hikes and how steep hikes followed by a stable taxation envrionment benefits in the long term.</li>
<li>At CMP, stock is attractive at 20x Cigarette profits alone (peers trade at 25x), offering FMCG and agri business (worth 40/share) + 50k crores in cash/listed investments (40/share) as buffer.</li>
</ul>


ITC's share prices collapsed on 1st-Jan following a larger-than-expected indirect tax hike on Cigarettes in India. The changes translate to a 20-50% increase in MRP, potentially aiding illicit Cigarette trade.
We present data on how ITC's Cigarette business has performed well despite regular tax hikes and how steep hikes followed by a stable taxation envrionment benefits in the long term.
At CMP, stock is attractive at 20x Cigarette profits alone (peers trade at 25x), offering FMCG and agri business (worth 40/share) + 50k crores in cash/listed investments (40/share) as buffer.


ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Philip Morris International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Philip Morris International's recent quarterly performance demonstrates a complex financial picture characterized by several positive developments interspersed with notable challenges.</li><li>In terms of results, the company showcased significant growth trajectories within its smoke-free product segment, encompassing products like IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV.</li><li>This performance contributed substantially to the overall financial outcome, resulting in a robust double-digit increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share in both constant currency and U.S. dollar terms.</li></ul>

Philip Morris International's recent quarterly performance demonstrates a complex financial picture characterized by several positive developments interspersed with notable challenges.In terms of results, the company showcased significant growth trajectories within its smoke-free product segment, encompassing products like IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV.This performance contributed substantially to the overall financial outcome, resulting in a robust double-digit increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share in both constant currency and U.S. dollar terms.

Philip Morris International Powers Profits with ZYN and IQOS—How Long Can the Surge Last?

<ul><li>Philip Morris International delivered a strong start to the year with double-digit growth in organic net revenue, operating income, and adjusted diluted EPS, both in constant currency and dollar terms.</li><li>The company’s smoke-free business was a key growth driver, contributing 44% of total gross profit, supported by shipment volume growth of 14.4% and organic net revenue growth of 20%.</li><li>Within this segment, ZYN shipment volumes grew by 53%, surpassing expectations due to strong demand and increased production capacity, while IQOS demonstrated near 10% HTU adjusted IMS growth despite facing regulatory challenges like the EU flavor ban.</li></ul>

Philip Morris International delivered a strong start to the year with double-digit growth in organic net revenue, operating income, and adjusted diluted EPS, both in constant currency and dollar terms.The company’s smoke-free business was a key growth driver, contributing 44% of total gross profit, supported by shipment volume growth of 14.4% and organic net revenue growth of 20%.Within this segment, ZYN shipment volumes grew by 53%, surpassing expectations due to strong demand and increased production capacity, while IQOS demonstrated near 10% HTU adjusted IMS growth despite facing regulatory challenges like the EU flavor ban.

Philip Morris International: How Important Is The Growth & Capacity Expansion Of ZYN And Its IQOS Innovation For The Future Of The Company?

United States

Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, affiliates and their licensees, produces, sells, distributes, and markets a wide range of branded cigarettes and tobacco products in markets outside of the United States of America.  The Company's portfolio comprises both international and local brands.

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Philip Morris International (PM US)

CORPORATE LEVERAGE: An Inconvenient Truth

Sometimes stock markets don’t bounce back. They just hit the bottom and then crawl sideways for years. Take Greece, its stock market is still 87%...

GMT Research

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...

Himanshu Dugar

Philip Morris International Powers Profits with ZYN and IQOS—How Long Can the Surge Last?

Philip Morris International's recent quarterly performance demonstrates a complex financial picture characterized by several positive developments...

Baptista Research

Philip Morris International: How Important Is The Growth & Capacity Expansion Of ZYN And Its IQOS Innovation For The Future Of The Company?

Philip Morris International delivered a strong start to the year with double-digit growth in organic net revenue, operating income, and adjusted...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CORPORATE LEVERAGE: An Inconvenient Truth

Sometimes stock markets don’t bounce back. They just hit the bottom and then crawl sideways for years. Take Greece, its stock market is still 87%...

GMT Research

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

​ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...

Himanshu Dugar

Philip Morris International Powers Profits with ZYN and IQOS—How Long Can the Surge Last?

Philip Morris International's recent quarterly performance demonstrates a complex financial picture characterized by several positive developments...

Baptista Research

Philip Morris International: How Important Is The Growth & Capacity Expansion Of ZYN And Its IQOS Innovation For The Future Of The Company?

Philip Morris International delivered a strong start to the year with double-digit growth in organic net revenue, operating income, and adjusted...

Baptista Research

ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...