Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Semirara Mining And Power Corp / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semirara-mining-and-power-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18925:1" rel="noopener">Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/security-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3929:1" rel="noopener">Security Bank (SECB PM)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 5 August.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 5.5 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semirara-mining-and-power-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18925:1" rel="noopener">Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM)</a> and sell nearly 30 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/security-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3929:1" rel="noopener">Security Bank (SECB PM)</a>.</li>
<li>Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. Square off existing pre-positions by mid week.</li>
</ul>



Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM) will replace Security Bank (SECB PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) at the close of trading on 5 August.
Passive trackers will need to buy 5.5 days of ADV on Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM) and sell nearly 30 days of ADV on Security Bank (SECB PM).
Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. Square off existing pre-positions by mid week.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: Semirara Mining (SCC) Replaces Security Bank (SECB)

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maynilad-water-services-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44852:1" rel="noopener">Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH)</a> is looking to raise up to US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/share, valuing the company at US$2.82bn.</li>
<li>The market cap and free float will depend on the number of shares sold in the IPO and whether the shares in the upsize option are primary or secondary shares.</li>
<li>Global index inclusions should take place in November and December, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> inclusion could take place in August 2026.</li>
</ul>



Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) is looking to raise up to US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/share, valuing the company at US$2.82bn.
The market cap and free float will depend on the number of shares sold in the IPO and whether the shares in the upsize option are primary or secondary shares.
Global index inclusions should take place in November and December, while Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) inclusion could take place in August 2026.


Maynilad Water (MYNLD PM): Index Inclusion Timing for a Large Philippines IPO

<ul>
<li>We look at the performance of the index rebalance strategy over the year using weekly forecasts. In short, it has been a mixed bag for Asia.</li>
<li>India and China have been among the worst performing markets in the region while Australia and Korea have been among the better performers.</li>
<li>A lot of the outperformance appears to be front loaded, so getting the forecasts right early in the review period is of paramount importance.</li>
</ul>


We look at the performance of the index rebalance strategy over the year using weekly forecasts. In short, it has been a mixed bag for Asia.
India and China have been among the worst performing markets in the region while Australia and Korea have been among the better performers.
A lot of the outperformance appears to be front loaded, so getting the forecasts right early in the review period is of paramount importance.


Index Rebalance Strategy YTD Performance: Not Many Places to Hide in Asia

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>China listed HK shares continue to lead the pack in Asia</li>
<li>India's rate cuts, tax cuts and election wins are not supporting the market</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
China listed HK shares continue to lead the pack in Asia
India's rate cuts, tax cuts and election wins are not supporting the market


Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/areit-ayalaland-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28856:1" rel="noopener">Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-banking-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22788:1" rel="noopener">China Banking (CBC PM)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nickel-asia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10379:1" rel="noopener">Nickel Asia (NIKL PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilcon-builder-s-supply" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23685:1" rel="noopener">Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index</a>.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-44 days of ADV in the adds while selling between 17-54 days of ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>The stocks have already moved a lot over the last few months and positioning has built up over that period. There could still be outperformance ahead of the passives trading.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM) and China Banking (CBC PM) will replace Nickel Asia (NIKL PM) and Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-44 days of ADV in the adds while selling between 17-54 days of ADV in the deletes.
The stocks have already moved a lot over the last few months and positioning has built up over that period. There could still be outperformance ahead of the passives trading.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

Philippines

The Philippine Stock Exchange PSEi Index is a capitalization-weighted index composed of stocks representative of the Industrial, Properties, Services, Holding Firms, Financial and Mining & Oil Sectors of the PSE. The index has a base value of 1022.045 as of February 28, 1990. 

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)

PCOMP Index Rebalance: Semirara Mining (SCC) Replaces Security Bank (SECB)

Semirara Mining will replace Security Bank in the PCOMP at the close on 5 August. There are 5 trading days to implementation and passive fund...

Brian Freitas

Maynilad Water (MYNLD PM): Index Inclusion Timing for a Large Philippines IPO

Maynilad Water could raise upto US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/shr, valuing the company at US$2.82bn. Global index inclusions could take place in...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance Strategy YTD Performance: Not Many Places to Hide in Asia

A positive start to the year for Asia index rebals has turned negative as the momentum/ value unwind began a few weeks ago. Higher volatility and a...

Brian Freitas

Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We takea quick tour around China, India and Japan

Rikki Malik

PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

AREIT and CBC will replace NIKL and WLCON in the PCOMP this week. Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-54 days of ADV in the changes. Adds...

Brian Freitas