Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Semirara Mining And Power Corp / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semirara-mining-and-power-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18925:1" rel="noopener">Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/security-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3929:1" rel="noopener">Security Bank (SECB PM)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 5 August.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 5.5 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semirara-mining-and-power-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18925:1" rel="noopener">Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM)</a> and sell nearly 30 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/security-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3929:1" rel="noopener">Security Bank (SECB PM)</a>.</li>
<li>Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. Square off existing pre-positions by mid week.</li>
</ul>



Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM) will replace Security Bank (SECB PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) at the close of trading on 5 August.
Passive trackers will need to buy 5.5 days of ADV on Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM) and sell nearly 30 days of ADV on Security Bank (SECB PM).
Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. Square off existing pre-positions by mid week.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: Semirara Mining (SCC) Replaces Security Bank (SECB)

<ul>
<li>Today is the last day of the review period for the August rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semirara-mining-and-power-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18925:1" rel="noopener">Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/security-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3929:1" rel="noopener">Security Bank (SECB PM)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. There is one month to pre-position for the announcement.</li>
</ul>


Today is the last day of the review period for the August rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX). 
We see a high probability of Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM) replacing Security Bank (SECB PM) in the index.
Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. There is one month to pre-position for the announcement.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: SCC Likely Replaces SECB

<ul>
<li>With just over a month to go in the review period for the August rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a>, we expect one potential change. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/security-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3929:1" rel="noopener">Security Bank (SECB PM)</a> is a potential deletion. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semirara-mining-and-power-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18925:1" rel="noopener">Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM)</a> has a higher inclusion probability as compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unionbank-of-the-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23192:1" rel="noopener">UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive funds will need to trade quite a few days of ADV on the stocks. Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes in the last leg of the review period.</li>
</ul>


With just over a month to go in the review period for the August rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX), we expect one potential change. 

Security Bank (SECB PM) is a potential deletion. Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM) has a higher inclusion probability as compared to UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM). 
Passive funds will need to trade quite a few days of ADV on the stocks. Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes in the last leg of the review period.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Aug 22: One Set of Potential Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador Inc (EMP PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomberry-resorts-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17961:1" rel="noopener">Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinsons-retail-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10598:1" rel="noopener">Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP)</a>.</li>
<li>There will be a lot to trade from passive funds. Implementation will take place at the close on 11 February - there are only 5 days to go.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador Inc (EMP PM)</a> has rallied over the last month while the deletions have traded lower. As re-opening plays, the passive selling could provide an opportunity to buy the deletes.</li>
</ul>



Emperador Inc (EMP PM) and Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM) will replace Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) and Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP).
There will be a lot to trade from passive funds. Implementation will take place at the close on 11 February - there are only 5 days to go.

Emperador Inc (EMP PM) has rallied over the last month while the deletions have traded lower. As re-opening plays, the passive selling could provide an opportunity to buy the deletes.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: EMP, MONDE Could Pop; BLOOM, RRHI Could Drop

Philippines

The Philippine Stock Exchange PSEi Index is a capitalization-weighted index composed of stocks representative of the Industrial, Properties, Services, Holding Firms, Financial and Mining & Oil Sectors of the PSE. The index has a base value of 1022.045 as of February 28, 1990. 

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

PCOMP Index Rebalance: Semirara Mining (SCC) Replaces Security Bank (SECB)

Semirara Mining will replace Security Bank in the PCOMP at the close on 5 August. There are 5 trading days to implementation and passive fund...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: SCC Likely Replaces SECB

We see Semirara Mining (SCC) replacing Security Bank (SECB) at the August rebalance of the PCOMP Index. Passive trackers will need to buy over 5...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Aug 22: One Set of Potential Changes

We expect SCC PM to be added to the PCOMP Index at the August rebalance replacing SECB PM. Historically, the adds outperform the deletes and there...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance: EMP, MONDE Could Pop; BLOOM, RRHI Could Drop

Emperador and Monde Nissin will replace Bloomberry Resorts and Robinson Retail in the PCOMP after the close on 11 February. Only 5 days to...

Brian Freitas