Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>The Middle East conflict is driving structural disruption to the global base oils market, with lubricants prices rising up to 30% in a six-to-nine month scenario and more than 50% in a worst case, Rosefield Energy Tech said</li><li>Blenders faced simultaneous pressure from feedstock shortages, additives constraints, freight costs and currency depreciation, with local and regional blenders most exposed</li><li>Rosefield recommended diversifying feedstock sources, shifting to regional hubs and adopting more dynamic pricing to reduce risk</li></ul>

The Middle East conflict is driving structural disruption to the global base oils market, with lubricants prices rising up to 30% in a six-to-nine month scenario and more than 50% in a worst case, Rosefield Energy Tech saidBlenders faced simultaneous pressure from feedstock shortages, additives constraints, freight costs and currency depreciation, with local and regional blenders most exposedRosefield recommended diversifying feedstock sources, shifting to regional hubs and adopting more dynamic pricing to reduce risk

Middle East War Triggers Structural Disruption In Base Oils Market

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.</li>
<li>This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.</li>
<li>We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA</li>
</ul>


We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.
This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.
We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA


Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

<ul><li>Several more Group II cargoes loaded from Taiwan before heading to Southeast Asia.</li><li>The pick-up in shipments in second-half March lifted total exports above typical monthly levels.</li><li>The rise contrasted with a slump in Singapore’s exports in the past week.</li></ul>

Several more Group II cargoes loaded from Taiwan before heading to Southeast Asia.The pick-up in shipments in second-half March lifted total exports above typical monthly levels.The rise contrasted with a slump in Singapore’s exports in the past week.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 27 March

<ul>
<li>Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)</li>
<li>Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."</li>
<li>SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)
Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."
SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.


<ul><li>Shell's Pearl GTL plant halted after an 18 March attack — removing a major source of global Group III shipments with restart timeline unclear</li><li>US January Group III imports surged from the Middle East before war disrupted shipment flows — Middle East arrivals now set to drop sharply in April</li><li>South Korea February exports fell to a nine-month low before the Middle East conflict disrupted flows across key markets — curtailing shipments to the Middle East and boosting the need for alternative shipments to the US</li></ul>

Shell's Pearl GTL plant halted after an 18 March attack — removing a major source of global Group III shipments with restart timeline unclearUS January Group III imports surged from the Middle East before war disrupted shipment flows — Middle East arrivals now set to drop sharply in AprilSouth Korea February exports fell to a nine-month low before the Middle East conflict disrupted flows across key markets — curtailing shipments to the Middle East and boosting the need for alternative shipments to the US

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 20 Mar '26

United States

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

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Phillips 66 (PSX US)

Middle East War Triggers Structural Disruption In Base Oils Market

Blenders faced simultaneous pressure from feedstock shortages, additives constraints, freight costs and currency depreciation, with local and...

Base Oil News

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; Latest $SPX Rally Likely to Roll Over Here at 6480-6520 or 200-day MA resistance

Vermilion Research

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 27 March

Several more Group II cargoes loaded from Taiwan before heading to Southeast Asia. The pick-up in shipments in second-half March lifted total...

Base Oil News

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks on $SPX. 10-Year Treasury yield breakout above 4.30%. MOVE index surges to 11-month highs

Vermilion Research

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 20 Mar '26

Shell's Pearl GTL plant halted after an 18 March attack — removing a major source of global Group III shipments with restart timeline...

Base Oil News

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