EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume.&nbsp;This has led to markets that are severely overstretched versus their fundamentals.If we look at the oil futures curve structure and elements likely to impact it, oil looks like it may surprise to the upside much as it has surprised to the downside.This piece summarises the bull case for a complex topic.

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume.&nbsp;This has led to markets that are severely overstretched versus their fundamentals.If we look at the oil futures curve structure and elements likely to impact it, oil looks like it may surprise to the upside much as it has surprised to the downside.This piece summarises the bull case for a complex topic.

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&amp;P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region should oil prices stay at or below current levels for the next 3-5 years, a &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; scenario as opposed to the $100+ oil long-run oil prices that were expected at the middle of last year.This note analyses some of the key drivers that will determine the different scenarios that may play out in the Middle East and which paths are more likely.Whereas in previous instances higher oil prices were bad for peace in the region, it may now be that we are in for a rocky road unless prices rebound sharply, which may in itself drive up prices.

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&amp;P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region should oil prices stay at or below current levels for the next 3-5 years, a &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; scenario as opposed to the $100+ oil long-run oil prices that were expected at the middle of last year.This note analyses some of the key drivers that will determine the different scenarios that may play out in the Middle East and which paths are more likely.Whereas in previous instances higher oil prices were bad for peace in the region, it may now be that we are in for a rocky road unless prices rebound sharply, which may in itself drive up prices.

What happens to the Gulf if oil prices stay lower for longer?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

As we head towards the US payrolls report, US rates have continued to drift up this week, building on the rise last week on a less dovish than expected FOMC. Provided the payrolls report is not too far from expected, the EUR may reassert its recent downtrend.&nbsp; The spreads between EUR and USD interest rates have moved to new lows since 2007.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be shaking off the bear-market, rejecting moves much below $50 and energy sector equities have performed well recently, offering support for the CAD.&nbsp; The RBA is keeping a rate cut up its sleeve for now.

As we head towards the US payrolls report, US rates have continued to drift up this week, building on the rise last week on a less dovish than expected FOMC. Provided the payrolls report is not too far from expected, the EUR may reassert its recent downtrend.&nbsp; The spreads between EUR and USD interest rates have moved to new lows since 2007.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be shaking off the bear-market, rejecting moves much below $50 and energy sector equities have performed well recently, offering support for the CAD.&nbsp; The RBA is keeping a rate cut up its sleeve for now.

AmpGFX - Oil may be stabilizing, rate pressure on EUR

This note looks at the background of the recent Ankara bombing, the political situation in Turkey and its position in the region.The note starts with an analysis of who benefits from the political violence we have seen reintroduced to Turkish politics and how it is sharpening the differences between various groups inside Turkey (the final conclusion is al Qaeda benefits most, ignored by most).We then consider the political and religious background of the AKP and how it impacts its current actions and the efficacy of the security forces is then considered, finishing with some thoughts on the Battle of the Five Armies that we are now seeing in Syria and why Russia has now entered the fray.The conclusions are somewhat somber, but it feels like we may be close to a bottom in some key areas with a path to ruin unlikely and some level of political stability to return to Turkey with my core view still being an AKP majority for November 1st, with a CHP-coalition next most likely, both of which would cause the market and currency to rally in the next few weeks.

This note looks at the background of the recent Ankara bombing, the political situation in Turkey and its position in the region.The note starts with an analysis of who benefits from the political violence we have seen reintroduced to Turkish politics and how it is sharpening the differences between various groups inside Turkey (the final conclusion is al Qaeda benefits most, ignored by most).We then consider the political and religious background of the AKP and how it impacts its current actions and the efficacy of the security forces is then considered, finishing with some thoughts on the Battle of the Five Armies that we are now seeing in Syria and why Russia has now entered the fray.The conclusions are somewhat somber, but it feels like we may be close to a bottom in some key areas with a path to ruin unlikely and some level of political stability to return to Turkey with my core view still being an AKP majority for November 1st, with a CHP-coalition next most likely, both of which would cause the market and currency to rally in the next few weeks.

Despite recent weakness Gulf markets have proved to be some of the most resilient in EM in the face of collapsing oil prices. There is evidence that Qatar and Abu Dhabi in particular may provide a safe haven in turbulent markets and other regional markets look to be approaching a market even in a low oil price environment. Societal change has also started, potentially resulting in more resilient nations in the future.

Despite recent weakness Gulf markets have proved to be some of the most resilient in EM in the face of collapsing oil prices. There is evidence that Qatar and Abu Dhabi in particular may provide a safe haven in turbulent markets and other regional markets look to be approaching a market even in a low oil price environment. Societal change has also started, potentially resulting in more resilient nations in the future.

United States

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

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Phillips 66 (PSX US)

How Oil Can Head over $100 by 2017

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume. This has led to markets that are severely...

Emad Mostaque

What happens to the Gulf if oil prices stay lower for longer?

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region...

Emad Mostaque

AmpGFX - Oil may be stabilizing, rate pressure on EUR

As we head towards the US payrolls report, US rates have continued to drift up this week, building on the rise last week on a less dovish than...

Greg Gibbs

Ankara: Cui Bono?

This note looks at the background of the recent Ankara bombing, the political situation in Turkey and its position in the region.The note starts...

Emad Mostaque

Will the Gulf remain resilient?

Despite recent weakness Gulf markets have proved to be some of the most resilient in EM in the face of collapsing oil prices. There is evidence...

Emad Mostaque

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