Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KVP highlights key data points from recent subzero Moscow trip</li><li>Things have to get a whole lot worse before they get better</li><li>Oil back at $100 is terrible for Russia but great for Putin&rsquo;s circle</li><li>This week&rsquo;s Macro Take focuses on my very recent trip to Moscow, whereby I wanted to share the data points and thoughts &ldquo;from the ground&rdquo; with the aim of illuminating a very key component of the global macro puzzle for 2015, which is the Russia piece of the puzzle. If people are way too pessimistic and things are to get better, this could be a great asymmetrical opportunity to load up on some Russian-Ukrainian (Western) Conflict linked exposure. If this is still only the beginning of death through a thousand cuts, then perhaps a total exit, avoidance or shorting strategy is needed.&nbsp;</li><li>Whilst this piece is long and not one for those of you with the attention span of goldfish, this is on one of the key global geopolitical inflection points with potentially big positive &amp; negative ripples on the current risk-on environment we are seeing.&nbsp; Especially given recent events in Greece/Europe that has sent the Dow &amp; S&amp;P on Friday to new all-time record highs, at 18,140 &amp; 2,110 respectively.</li></ul>

KVP highlights key data points from recent subzero Moscow tripThings have to get a whole lot worse before they get betterOil back at $100 is terrible for Russia but great for Putin&rsquo;s circleThis week&rsquo;s Macro Take focuses on my very recent trip to Moscow, whereby I wanted to share the data points and thoughts &ldquo;from the ground&rdquo; with the aim of illuminating a very key component of the global macro puzzle for 2015, which is the Russia piece of the puzzle. If people are way too pessimistic and things are to get better, this could be a great asymmetrical opportunity to load up on some Russian-Ukrainian (Western) Conflict linked exposure. If this is still only the beginning of death through a thousand cuts, then perhaps a total exit, avoidance or shorting strategy is needed.&nbsp;Whilst this piece is long and not one for those of you with the attention span of goldfish, this is on one of the key global geopolitical inflection points with potentially big positive &amp; negative ripples on the current risk-on environment we are seeing.&nbsp; Especially given recent events in Greece/Europe that has sent the Dow &amp; S&amp;P on Friday to new all-time record highs, at 18,140 &amp; 2,110 respectively.

MACRO TAKE: In from the Cold of Mother Russia

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<ol><li>Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. </li><li>Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed </li><li>Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. </li></ol>

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. 

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Phillips 66's first quarter 2025 earnings overview reflects both strategic advancements and current operational challenges faced by the company.</li><li>Mark Lashier, the Chairman and CEO, emphasized the company's focus on executing its transformational strategy despite a challenging macro-economic environment in the Refining, Renewables, and Chemicals segments.</li><li>The company reported $487 million in earnings but an adjusted loss of $368 million, attributing this to factors such as accelerated depreciation and the impact of significant turnaround activities, which temporarily affected volumes and margins.</li></ul>

Phillips 66's first quarter 2025 earnings overview reflects both strategic advancements and current operational challenges faced by the company.Mark Lashier, the Chairman and CEO, emphasized the company's focus on executing its transformational strategy despite a challenging macro-economic environment in the Refining, Renewables, and Chemicals segments.The company reported $487 million in earnings but an adjusted loss of $368 million, attributing this to factors such as accelerated depreciation and the impact of significant turnaround activities, which temporarily affected volumes and margins.

Phillips 66: Its Expansion & Integration of Midstream Operations With A Focus On NGLs Might Just Pay Off!

<ul><li>The battle for boardroom influence at Phillips 66 has entered a new phase.</li><li>On March 25, 2025, activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management filed a lawsuit against Phillips 66 and its board, demanding that four board seats be opened for election at the upcoming annual shareholder meeting.</li><li>This move comes just weeks after Elliott revealed it had increased its stake in the oil refiner to $2.5 billion and nominated seven directors.</li></ul>

The battle for boardroom influence at Phillips 66 has entered a new phase.On March 25, 2025, activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management filed a lawsuit against Phillips 66 and its board, demanding that four board seats be opened for election at the upcoming annual shareholder meeting.This move comes just weeks after Elliott revealed it had increased its stake in the oil refiner to $2.5 billion and nominated seven directors.

Phillips 66 Gets a Wake-Up Call From Activist Investor — Why Elliott Investments’ Intervention Could Unlock Value!

<ul><li>Phillips 66's latest earnings revealed a multifaceted performance analysis in a challenging margin environment.</li><li>The company's diversified and integrated portfolio, especially in midstream operations, has provided a sturdy foundation even amid fluctuating market conditions.</li><li>With the successful alignment of organizational priorities, Phillips 66 achieved significant milestones, including distributing $13.6 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends since mid-2022.</li></ul>

Phillips 66's latest earnings revealed a multifaceted performance analysis in a challenging margin environment.The company's diversified and integrated portfolio, especially in midstream operations, has provided a sturdy foundation even amid fluctuating market conditions.With the successful alignment of organizational priorities, Phillips 66 achieved significant milestones, including distributing $13.6 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends since mid-2022.

Phillips 66: The 5 Hidden Pitfalls That Could Undermine Its 2025 Performance!

United States

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

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Phillips 66 (PSX US)

MACRO TAKE: In from the Cold of Mother Russia

KVP highlights key data points from recent subzero Moscow trip Things have to get a whole lot worse before they get better Oil back at $100 is...

Kay Van-Petersen

Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Part 1

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment...

Emad Mostaque

Phillips 66: Its Expansion & Integration of Midstream Operations With A Focus On NGLs Might Just Pay Off!

Phillips 66's first quarter 2025 earnings overview reflects both strategic advancements and current operational challenges faced by the...

Baptista Research

Phillips 66 Gets a Wake-Up Call From Activist Investor — Why Elliott Investments’ Intervention Could Unlock Value!

The battle for boardroom influence at Phillips 66 has entered a new phase. On March 25, 2025, activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management...

Baptista Research

Phillips 66: The 5 Hidden Pitfalls That Could Undermine Its 2025 Performance!

Phillips 66's latest earnings revealed a multifaceted performance analysis in a challenging margin environment. The company's diversified and...

Baptista Research

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