Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. </li>
<li>ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. </li>
<li>Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.</li>
</ul>


The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. 
ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. 
Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.


MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The insurance sector should definitely warrant more investor attention going forward as some insurance names in the region have had a very strong year in 2022.</li>
<li>Two key markets we view positively in 2023 are China's P&amp;C and Korea's L&amp;H insurance markets, given their favorable industry catalysts and tailwinds. </li>
<li>Among all the insurance stocks in these two markets, we believe PICC P&amp;C and Samsung Life will continue to have an exciting year ahead.</li>
</ul>


The insurance sector should definitely warrant more investor attention going forward as some insurance names in the region have had a very strong year in 2022.
Two key markets we view positively in 2023 are China's P&amp;C and Korea's L&amp;H insurance markets, given their favorable industry catalysts and tailwinds. 
Among all the insurance stocks in these two markets, we believe PICC P&amp;C and Samsung Life will continue to have an exciting year ahead.


APAC Insurers Series (#1): A Hidden Gem in This Bear Market?

<ul>
<li>China's motor insurance has been showing signs of growth after years of decline due to deregulations and reforms in the sector.</li>
<li>Motor insurance tailwind will benefit large players the most. Bullish on PICC P&amp;C since it's the largest player in motor insurance and to likely benefit the most from the tailwind.</li>
<li>Bearish on CPIC since its P&amp;C business is much smaller than PICC P&amp;C and Ping An P&amp;C, while its L&amp;H growth continues to be under pressure.  </li>
</ul>


China's motor insurance has been showing signs of growth after years of decline due to deregulations and reforms in the sector.
Motor insurance tailwind will benefit large players the most. Bullish on PICC P&amp;C since it's the largest player in motor insurance and to likely benefit the most from the tailwind.
Bearish on CPIC since its P&amp;C business is much smaller than PICC P&amp;C and Ping An P&amp;C, while its L&amp;H growth continues to be under pressure.  


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

PICC Property & Casualty H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close on 6 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.84bn (US$365m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 3 December.</li>
<li>There could be a move higher in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty</a> over the next few days while any selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties</a> will be a covering opportunity for the shorts.</li>
</ul>



PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) will replace Longfor Properties (960 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 6 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.84bn (US$365m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 3 December.
There could be a move higher in PICC Property &amp; Casualty over the next few days while any selling in Longfor Properties will be a covering opportunity for the shorts.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

APAC Insurers Series (#1): A Hidden Gem in This Bear Market?

China P&C and Korea L&H are two insurance markets in Asia that we view positively in 2023, thanks to the continued catalysts. PICC P&C and Samsung...

Alec Tseung

China Insurance: PICC P&C Vs. CPIC

Bullish on PICC P&C outlook as it's expected to benefit the most from China's motor insurance recovery. Bearish on CPIC's because its P&C is much...

Alec Tseung

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

SOUTHBOUND bought another HK$14bn+ last week in the four-day week. ENERGY was big again, as was CONSUMER DISC though some of the latter was index...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)

PICC P&C will replace Longfor Properties HSCEI at the close on 6 Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

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