Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books.</li>
<li>We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended discussion of our investments in lithium and the outlook for the sector in the coming years.</li>
<li>Despite dire headlines related to EVs, we remain optimistic about a lithium rebound and skeptical that supply can grow as robustly as projected.</li>
</ul>


2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books.
We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended discussion of our investments in lithium and the outlook for the sector in the coming years.
Despite dire headlines related to EVs, we remain optimistic about a lithium rebound and skeptical that supply can grow as robustly as projected.


2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a>'s CEO recently said, regarding its merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>, that while falling lithium prices put pressure on marginal producers, the sector's fundamental outlook remains strong. </li>
<li>And so, another week goes by, and another lithium Offer Down Under unfolds. </li>
<li>African-Focused lithium play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlantic-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40322:1" rel="noopener">Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU)</a> announced this morning it has twice rejected Offers from South African-based Assore International, its major shareholder.  Shares spiked 43% on the news.</li>
</ul>



Livent (LTHM US)'s CEO recently said, regarding its merger with Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), that while falling lithium prices put pressure on marginal producers, the sector's fundamental outlook remains strong. 
And so, another week goes by, and another lithium Offer Down Under unfolds. 
African-Focused lithium play Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) announced this morning it has twice rejected Offers from South African-based Assore International, its major shareholder.  Shares spiked 43% on the news.


Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder's Offer. Again

<ul>
<li>Short seller Blue Orca is alleging <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlantic-lithium-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27991:1" rel="noopener">Atlantic Lithium (ALL LN)</a> is seeking to obtain a Ghanaian lithium mining licence via "textbook corruption".</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piedmont-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17619:1" rel="noopener">Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU)</a> is a substantial shareholder of Atlantic, together with a co-development agreement for the Ghanaian project, in which the mining license has yet to be ratified. </li>
<li>Orca reckons the license ratification will fail the corruption sniff test, which in turn will jeopardise the Tennessee lithium offtake facility, currently awaiting a DOE grant.</li>
</ul>


Short seller Blue Orca is alleging Atlantic Lithium (ALL LN) is seeking to obtain a Ghanaian lithium mining licence via "textbook corruption".

Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU) is a substantial shareholder of Atlantic, together with a co-development agreement for the Ghanaian project, in which the mining license has yet to be ratified. 
Orca reckons the license ratification will fail the corruption sniff test, which in turn will jeopardise the Tennessee lithium offtake facility, currently awaiting a DOE grant.


Piedmont Lithium: General Mosquito & "Textbook Corruption"

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.</li>
</ul>


We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.
Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.


S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

<ul>
<li>We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 3 days of ADV on 13 stocks, over 5 days of ADV on 9 stocks and over 10x ADV on 4 stocks. </li>
<li>Shorts have been covering positions on stocks where there are expected to be passive inflows and increasing positions on stocks that are expected to have passive outflows.</li>
</ul>


We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 3 days of ADV on 13 stocks, over 5 days of ADV on 9 stocks and over 10x ADV on 4 stocks. 
Shorts have been covering positions on stocks where there are expected to be passive inflows and increasing positions on stocks that are expected to have passive outflows.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

Australia

Piedmont Lithium Limited operates as a mineral exploration company. The Company explores and develops lithium project. Piedmont Lithium also manages drill, land expansion, and sampling programs. Piedmont Lithium operates projects in the United States.

Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU)

2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books. We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended...

Massif Capital Research

Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder's Offer. Again

If small, illiquid M&A plays are your thing, I'd probably be picking up shares here. I think Assore will bump. Or second-largest shareholder...

David Blennerhassett

Piedmont Lithium: General Mosquito & "Textbook Corruption"

There's a considerable amount of expectation on cashflow baked into Piedmont's price from the Tennessee and Quebec facility's off-take agreements....

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

We forecast 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 for the ASX 200 & 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 in March. Adds have outperformed deletes...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March. Lots of...

Brian Freitas

2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books. We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended...

Massif Capital Research

Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder's Offer. Again

If small, illiquid M&A plays are your thing, I'd probably be picking up shares here. I think Assore will bump. Or second-largest shareholder...

David Blennerhassett

Piedmont Lithium: General Mosquito & "Textbook Corruption"

There's a considerable amount of expectation on cashflow baked into Piedmont's price from the Tennessee and Quebec facility's off-take agreements....

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

We forecast 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 for the ASX 200 & 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 in March. Adds have outperformed deletes...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March. Lots of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March