Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Capital Markets

Bank of Jiujiang   / Equity Capital Markets

We know that banks often raise capital to boost capital adequacy. That is normal. But we also know that banks often use this as the premise, but really need IPO monies to support high impairment costs.  For China bank IPOs in recent years, it normally takes two to three years before impairment costs are higher than total IPO funds raised.  We provide data on China banks’ IPOs since year 2010 with IPO funds raised in USD million. Together with data that follows on total impairment costs, also in…

We know that banks often raise capital to boost capital adequacy. That is normal. But we also know that banks often use this as the premise, but really need IPO monies to support high impairment costs.  For China bank IPOs in recent years, it normally takes two to three years before impairment costs are higher than total IPO funds raised.  We provide data on China banks’ IPOs since year 2010 with IPO funds raised in USD million. Together with data that follows on total impairment costs, also in…

China Banks – After IPO, It Takes 2-3 Years for Impairments to Surpass Funds Raised

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

People's Insurance (PICC) / Equity Bottom-Up

* PICC Group (1339.HK) revealed additional details how it has designs on becoming “a top innovative financial and insurance group in China by 2020” (and globally by 2025); and* P&amp;C contributes over 90% of PICC Group’s consolidated earnings and remains the jewel of Group, while its other insurance subsidiaries remain sub-par.  <h2>Investment Summary</h2>PICC Group (1339.HK) hosted an investor day last week, revealing additional details how it has designs on becoming “a top innovative financial and…

* PICC Group (1339.HK) revealed additional details how it has designs on becoming “a top innovative financial and insurance group in China by 2020” (and globally by 2025); and* P&amp;C contributes over 90% of PICC Group’s consolidated earnings and remains the jewel of Group, while its other insurance subsidiaries remain sub-par.  Investment SummaryPICC Group (1339.HK) hosted an investor day last week, revealing additional details how it has designs on becoming “a top innovative financial and…

PICC Group – Everybody In the FinTech Pool

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* Increased NPL Recognition - Not Exactly Comforting; and * Lowered Reserve Coverage Each Invoke Capital Forebearance. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>Seemingly, nonperforming loan (NPL) recognition at the mainland Chinese banks is likely tighten as ALL loans 90 days past due loans or more are required to be downgraded to NPL status by end 1H18 for the larger and larger 2nd Tier banks. Isn't that a giant kick in the pants? So, after all of these years, who knew that the mainland Chinese banks were…

* Increased NPL Recognition - Not Exactly Comforting; and * Lowered Reserve Coverage Each Invoke Capital Forebearance. Investment SummarySeemingly, nonperforming loan (NPL) recognition at the mainland Chinese banks is likely tighten as ALL loans 90 days past due loans or more are required to be downgraded to NPL status by end 1H18 for the larger and larger 2nd Tier banks. Isn't that a giant kick in the pants? So, after all of these years, who knew that the mainland Chinese banks were…

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The Open Banking initiative in the UK, the PSD2 directive in the EU and a Japanese equivalent are forcing banks to provide third party access via software APIs to customer data and accounts.</li>
<li>In effect, the new regulations will enable a separation of the functions of money i.e. the traditional bundling role of banks is being disintermediated in an ‘open source’ financial data world.</li>
<li>From being financial department stores, banks will have to become more like malls, hosting a range of independent…</li>
</ul>


The Open Banking initiative in the UK, the PSD2 directive in the EU and a Japanese equivalent are forcing banks to provide third party access via software APIs to customer data and accounts.
In effect, the new regulations will enable a separation of the functions of money i.e. the traditional bundling role of banks is being disintermediated in an ‘open source’ financial data world.
From being financial department stores, banks will have to become more like malls, hosting a range of independent…


Payments Battle Goes Global, as Fintech Threat Evolves…

* Poster-child For All That Is Wrong in China Financials: Some of what we believe will rear its ugly head in 2018 will be: 1) investment portfolio risk; 2) weakness in solvency margins; 3)  weaker volume growth at Ping An Life; 4) operating losses at Ping An P&amp;C; 5) a potential capital raise at Ping An Bank; and 6) concerns over the wealth management.   * FinTech: Monetization of fintech subsidiaries is underway, but this appears to be only a modest offset to Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping…

* Poster-child For All That Is Wrong in China Financials: Some of what we believe will rear its ugly head in 2018 will be: 1) investment portfolio risk; 2) weakness in solvency margins; 3)  weaker volume growth at Ping An Life; 4) operating losses at Ping An P&amp;C; 5) a potential capital raise at Ping An Bank; and 6) concerns over the wealth management.   * FinTech: Monetization of fintech subsidiaries is underway, but this appears to be only a modest offset to Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping…

China

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

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Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH)

China Banks – After IPO, It Takes 2-3 Years for Impairments to Surpass Funds Raised

We know that banks often raise capital to boost capital adequacy. That is normal. But we also know that banks often use this as the premise, but...

Daniel Tabbush

PICC Group – Everybody In the FinTech Pool

* PICC Group (1339.HK) revealed additional details how it has designs on becoming “a top innovative financial and insurance group in China by 2020”...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks - Back to the Land of Silly

* Increased NPL Recognition - Not Exactly Comforting; and * Lowered Reserve Coverage Each Invoke Capital Forebearance. Investment SummarySeemingly,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Payments Battle Goes Global, as Fintech Threat Evolves…

The Open Banking initiative in the UK, the PSD2 directive in the EU and a Japanese equivalent are forcing banks to provide third party access via...

Sean Maher

Ping An Insurance – Wet Blanket

* Poster-child For All That Is Wrong in China Financials: Some of what we believe will rear its ugly head in 2018 will be: 1) investment portfolio...

Thomas J. Monaco

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