Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Agricultural Bank of China / Equity Bottom-Up

* Well-Orchestrated Capital Raise Coupled With More Regulatory Forbearance: Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) [ABC] announced plans on raising USD 15.8 bn in fresh equity concurrent with the China Bank Regulatory Commission’s (CBRC) new guidelines for commercial banks to expand their use of perpetual capital bonds, tier-2 capital with conversion features, convertible bonds, and total loss-absorption capacity (TLAC) instruments.* In Mainland China, You Can Never Have Enough Capital: By our…

* Well-Orchestrated Capital Raise Coupled With More Regulatory Forbearance: Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) [ABC] announced plans on raising USD 15.8 bn in fresh equity concurrent with the China Bank Regulatory Commission’s (CBRC) new guidelines for commercial banks to expand their use of perpetual capital bonds, tier-2 capital with conversion features, convertible bonds, and total loss-absorption capacity (TLAC) instruments.* In Mainland China, You Can Never Have Enough Capital: By our…

Agricultural Bank of China - Capital Overhang Persists

* After running 110% in 2017, Ping An Insurance (<a href="http://2318.hk/" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://2318.HK&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1516670325543000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGc3N_-tlhJq309egkx7jwFprvoSw">2318.HK</a>) [Ping An] shares are off to the races yet again as the fintech story continues to have legs. * Ping An, however, remains the poster child for everything that is fundamentally wrong with the mainland Chinese financial system - having its hands in nearly every hot button issue. <h2>Summary</h2>In the past, we have argued that Ping An is the poster child for every thing which is wrong in the mainland Chinese financial system, having: 1) Over 50% of its…

* After running 110% in 2017, Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] shares are off to the races yet again as the fintech story continues to have legs.  * Ping An, however, remains the poster child for everything that is fundamentally wrong with the mainland Chinese financial system - having its hands in nearly every hot button issue.  SummaryIn the past, we have argued that Ping An is the poster child for every thing which is wrong in the mainland Chinese financial system, having:  1) Over 50% of its…

Ping An Insurance - Not a Good Company, But You Can't Argue With the Power of Fin-Tech

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

There are many things to consider in the China bank numbers, not least of which include a move toward a greater focus on loan-like assets; worsening profit growth compared with asset growth; and pressure on Core Tier 1. Our emphasis here is on Ping An Bank’s clear deterioration in credit quality in the final quarter of last year, and it suggesting to us that there remains a negative trajectory in China for corporate credit metrics. And rising interest rates will not help. Ping An Bank – Total…

There are many things to consider in the China bank numbers, not least of which include a move toward a greater focus on loan-like assets; worsening profit growth compared with asset growth; and pressure on Core Tier 1. Our emphasis here is on Ping An Bank’s clear deterioration in credit quality in the final quarter of last year, and it suggesting to us that there remains a negative trajectory in China for corporate credit metrics. And rising interest rates will not help. Ping An Bank – Total…

Ping An Bank's Marked Deterioration in 4Q16

We are convinced that the last insight people want is about Brexit. We turn our attention to Vietnam’s banks, which are showing the best NPL ratio decline in all of Asia-Pacific over the past few years. This is likely to last, and the typical favorites in South East Asia may soon give way to those in Saigon, or Hanoi.  There is no better place to start than with Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank ("<a href="http://www.mbbank.com.vn/" target="_blank">MBB</a>") and its trends in credit costs.Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBB) – Credit…

We are convinced that the last insight people want is about Brexit. We turn our attention to Vietnam’s banks, which are showing the best NPL ratio decline in all of Asia-Pacific over the past few years. This is likely to last, and the typical favorites in South East Asia may soon give way to those in Saigon, or Hanoi.  There is no better place to start than with Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank ("MBB") and its trends in credit costs.Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBB) – Credit…

Vietnam Far From UK, with Meagre NPL Growth

<ul>
<li>There is talk that the regulator in China will allow banks to swap NPLs for equity stakes in the debtor companies. </li>
<li>This is also talk that the government will allow banks to package NPLs in the form of securities and sell them.  </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">The fact that these stories are coming out now, suggests that Beijing is incredibly worried about NPL formation, bank health and the state of economy.  And it should be, but these measures do not solve the asset quality problem, for want of scale for one thing.   </div><h2>Ping An</h2>…


There is talk that the regulator in China will allow banks to swap NPLs for equity stakes in the debtor companies. 
This is also talk that the government will allow banks to package NPLs in the form of securities and sell them.  
The fact that these stories are coming out now, suggests that Beijing is incredibly worried about NPL formation, bank health and the state of economy.  And it should be, but these measures do not solve the asset quality problem, for want of scale for one thing.   Ping An…

China

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

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Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH)

Agricultural Bank of China - Capital Overhang Persists

* Well-Orchestrated Capital Raise Coupled With More Regulatory Forbearance: Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) [ABC] announced plans on raising...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Insurance - Not a Good Company, But You Can't Argue With the Power of Fin-Tech

* After running 110% in 2017, Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] shares are off to the races yet again as the fintech story continues to have...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Bank's Marked Deterioration in 4Q16

There are many things to consider in the China bank numbers, not least of which include a move toward a greater focus on loan-like assets;...

Daniel Tabbush

Vietnam Far From UK, with Meagre NPL Growth

We are convinced that the last insight people want is about Brexit. We turn our attention to Vietnam’s banks, which are showing the best NPL ratio...

Daniel Tabbush

China Is Frantic About NPLs

There is talk that the regulator in China will allow banks to swap NPLs for equity stakes in the debtor companies. This is also talk that the...

Daniel Tabbush

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