HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Through Special Dividend, Ping An has achieved its initial plan at a low price. Ping An ruled out the possibility of privatization, which could be due to the high cost.</li>
<li>Ping An may hope to further leverage the synergies, increase resource tilt towards PAGD, thereby helping it out of the trough.But we’re not optimistic due to PAGD’s problematic business model.</li>
<li>The gap between PAGD and JD Health/Alibaba Health will continue to widen. Based on our forecast, we think PAGD is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than JD Health/Alibaba Health.</li>
</ul>


Through Special Dividend, Ping An has achieved its initial plan at a low price. Ping An ruled out the possibility of privatization, which could be due to the high cost.
Ping An may hope to further leverage the synergies, increase resource tilt towards PAGD, thereby helping it out of the trough.But we’re not optimistic due to PAGD’s problematic business model.
The gap between PAGD and JD Health/Alibaba Health will continue to widen. Based on our forecast, we think PAGD is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than JD Health/Alibaba Health.


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) - Thoughts About The Mandatory General Offer and Outlook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 14th November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.</li>
<li>A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0107/2025010701638.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH)</a>.</li>
<li>The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 14th November, Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been announced, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH).
The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.


PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)'s Unconditional MGO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hopson-development-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8108:1" rel="noopener">Hopson Development (754 HK)</a> is cash-strapped and it will most likely choose cash dividend, which would increase the likelihood that Glorious Peace's shareholding ratio will increase to more than 50%.</li>
<li>If PAGD’s share price is higher than HK$6.12, there is arbitrage opportunity. Since Ping An may hope other shareholders to choose cash dividends, future stock price may fall below HK$6.12</li>
<li>A risk point is Ping An can actually wait for other shareholders to make their choices before making the final decisions based on the stock price situation at that time.</li>
</ul>



Hopson Development (754 HK) is cash-strapped and it will most likely choose cash dividend, which would increase the likelihood that Glorious Peace's shareholding ratio will increase to more than 50%.
If PAGD’s share price is higher than HK$6.12, there is arbitrage opportunity. Since Ping An may hope other shareholders to choose cash dividends, future stock price may fall below HK$6.12
A risk point is Ping An can actually wait for other shareholders to make their choices before making the final decisions based on the stock price situation at that time.


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) - Cash Dividend Or Scrip Dividend?

<ul>
<li>Increasing revenue without increasing profits is “a big denial” of a company's business model. Unless Zai Lab significantly reduces costs and maintains revenue high growth, its investment value is low.</li>
<li>Junshi's 2024 revenue is likely to return to over RMB1.5 billion due to market share expansion in PD-1. Strict cost control will be the main theme for the future.</li>
<li>If PAGD’s share price is higher than HK$6.12, there would be arbitrage opportunity. If Ping An hopes other shareholders to choose cash dividend, future stock price may fall below HK$6.12.</li>
</ul>


Increasing revenue without increasing profits is “a big denial” of a company's business model. Unless Zai Lab significantly reduces costs and maintains revenue high growth, its investment value is low.
Junshi's 2024 revenue is likely to return to over RMB1.5 billion due to market share expansion in PD-1. Strict cost control will be the main theme for the future.
If PAGD’s share price is higher than HK$6.12, there would be arbitrage opportunity. If Ping An hopes other shareholders to choose cash dividend, future stock price may fall below HK$6.12.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.22) - Zai Lab, Junshi, How to Choose PA Good Doctor's Special Dividend?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)</a> (PA Gooddoctor), which was spun off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (601318 CH)</a> and listed in May 2018, has announced a<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1114/2024111400573.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> change in use of proceeds</a>.</li>
<li>Part of that change includes the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.</li>
<li>The more interesting aspect is that a scrip dividend is also afforded, which should allow a stealth MBO from Ping An at zero premium.</li>
</ul>



Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor), which was spun off from Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) and listed in May 2018, has announced a change in use of proceeds.
Part of that change includes the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
The more interesting aspect is that a scrip dividend is also afforded, which should allow a stealth MBO from Ping An at zero premium.


2025 High Conviction: PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) - The Arb Is To Take The Stock

China

Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited provides health care software solutions. The Company offers mobile platform for online consultation, hospital referral and appointment, health management, and wellness interaction services, as well as connects consumers and patients with health care resources. Ping An Healthcare and Technology serves customers in China.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

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Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)